Venezuela -- Thomas L Friedman recently argued that "the price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions." It's his "First Law of Petropolitics." Indeed, rising oil prices work as a psychotropic drug on the minds of petro-state leaders. Here's a corollary to Friedman's First Law: the price of oil and anti-American bullyism move in the same direction.
Iran's ambivalence over time - "now we say nothing will keep us from a nuclear program," "now we think we might give the EU's proposals a chance," etc. is proof at hand. Venezuela's Hugo Chávez would not say the things he keeps saying about US foreign policy if the price of oil was $20 instead of $68 a barrel. Sadly, we cannot expect anything but high prices in the foreseeable future, and therefore even more frightening, defiant rhetoric is in store.
In case you were wondering about Petropolitics, check out Thomas Friedman's "The First Law of Petropolitics" on the cover of the May/June 2006 issue of Foreign Policy. It can be found at:
Petropolitics. In the article, Friedman argues that increasing oil revenue gives authoritarian leaders the cash they need to ignore taxpayers, bribe political cronies, and finance repressive state security organs. As oil prices rise on the global market, the pace of freedom in oil-rich states slows or reverses altogether, Friedman contends.
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