Warsaw, Poland - Iraq will be ruled by Shia strongmen dependant on U.S. help. The Sunni minority, feeling discriminated against, will still support the insurgency.
However, the insurgents will be weaker than they were in 2007. They will rarely attack the few American bases remaining and will instead concentrate operations on Iraqi authorities and infrastructure.
Unfortunately, these insurgents will be strong enough to destabilize Iraq, leaving it the poorest Gulf nation. Shia militias will have been integrated into police forces after long, painful years.
Instances of torture and injustice inside police stations will still happen. Corruption will be rampant and distant parts of the country will be totally lawless, e.g. the Euphratus Valley where Sunni tribes oppose any authority. The mountains in the north will be the safest area, with steady economy growth fueled by oilfields that Kurds were able to secure for themselves. Although Iraq will formally remain a single country, the Kurds will be virtually independent.
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