From the United States, the prospect of endlessly high prices for oil and gas looks unrelentingly grim. Just this morning, the Commerce Department announced a bigger than expected trade gap for April and it’s clear who the villain is – crude oil imports accounted for just under half of the nation’s net trade deficit.
From the other end of the international oil pipeline, however, things look pretty good. No giant sucking sound there, just the happy gurgle of oil revenues flowing into the government cup that is running over.
Recently I had lunch with Stuart Pearce, the head of the Qatar Financial Authority, and he explained just how good the future looks from the perspective of the emirate on the Arabian peninsula.Within three years, Qatar’s output of oil and gas combined is expected to reach the equivalent of 6 million barrels a day of oil. What that means in dollars is this: If the emirate earns $100 a barrel over the next 10 years, it will have total revenues of more than $2 trillion.
“It’s just phenomenal. It’s a country that doesn’t fit into any IMF model,” said Pearce, whose agency is responsible for setting up a regulatory framework for banks seeking to do business in Qatar’s relatively open economy.
It only takes about $40 billion a year to run the country, Pearce said. The Qatari budget was set earlier this year with the assumption that the government would earn about $40 a barrel on oil exports. “It’s a little bit conservative,” Pearce says. That leaves a lot for other purposes. The country is growing at a rate of 20 percent a year.
Unlike the 1970s, when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries sqaundered a large portion of their petrodollars, OPEC is trying to be smarter now. That’s one reason Pearce is working for the emirate. He has helped set up laws and regulations for financial firms and there are now 82 foreign financial firms in the emirate. He rejects the model of Dubai, which lives off of investment income, tourism, and capital fleeing Iran in search of a safe haven. Qatar is trying to build a more diversified economy. “Qatar isn’t going to be the next Dubai,” Pearce says. “Qatar needs to do what’s best for itself.”
But in much of the world, people still haven’t come to grips with just how gigantic an earthquake oil prices are for the international financial system. It could throw many aspects of the financial system out of balance and turn more U.S. and European companies into suitors for Mideast capital. These sums are enormous, much, much bigger than the volume of petrodollars that needed to be recycled in the 1970s. The “giant sucking sound” phrase Ross Perot used in 1992 to describe what he said were jobs flowing to Mexico applies more accurately to the money leaving industrialized countries for oil exporting countries. The April trade deficit is just one month of a much bigger problem.
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Comments (15)
Go ahead Qatar. Because if you our Islamic calendar it still in 16 century. I am sure the world would be surprise when the Middle East nations hit their 20th century. Developments
June 13, 2008 6:48 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 13, 2008 06:48
Why must we always blame the messenger and not the message. For too long this country has had no meaningful energy policy that addresses the future, yet we continue to stick our head in the sand and pretend it will all be ok. furthermore why in the hell should oil be traded as a commodity cut out the speculators and revise the trading of commodities such as oil and other essentials and lets figure out what the real demand and supply is, unless wall st.
and 1% who really control the wealth in the country would like to have it otherwise.
Have a hard look in the mirror America and really see who's running the show and stop blaming others.
Fed up
June 11, 2008 3:55 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 15:55
"... an unsustainable festival of conspicuous consumption and hypocrisy: new-money natives with all their taste in their mouth buying up anything with a big price tag and a designer label, sending their spoiled children to the local joke branches of American universities in a relentless quest to buy prestige, engaging in ostentatious displays of piety in public while guzzling single-malt Scocth and throwing sleazy sex parties in private, building their tacky skyscrapers with slave foreign labor...
Yes, Lucky Lakeshore, this sounds familiar. Wait, I've got it. This is the exact same reality created by the wealthy in the United States and to this day the wealthy in that nation remain the primary exemplars of the kind of behavior you have described. I guess it's just that time of history when others around the world take their turns growing wealth.
And yes, the U. S. is the last nation of its kind to waste such vast wealth on oil, to name but one of the many deficit-inducing profligacies that nation enjoys. And the U.S. is not yet interested in pursuing reality based energy policies, creating newer and stabler markets of the future.
As for the Muslim ethos, the more commercial, the more educated and the wealthier any people become, the more secular they will be. The U. S. has a growing population of socially and politically oppressive Christians who have no problem living lush lives and espousing an individualistic self-righteous faith with the inherent contradictions irrationally rationalized away. In other words, when they control government and school boards they may cause a great deal of damage; but for the most part these groups function in the larger secular society as individuals who remain uninterested in living simpler and greener lives and certainly uninvolved in progressive politics and thinking.
As you have sewn, so shall you reap?
June 11, 2008 1:43 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 13:43
It was mentioned that "droplets of this money goes to terrorist organizations" but don't forget that "droplets" of our money goes to similar groups throughout the world. We're as guilty of funding "insurgents" as the rest of the world.
June 11, 2008 12:17 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 12:17
Someday (hopefully soon), the people of the world will start to realize that their hard earned cash is flowing into the pockets of small minority of people who's values do not reflect the values of a progressive and multicultural society. To make matters worse this flow is being facilitated with people and technology from countries who keep sending the money into the middle east.
At one time perhaps it made sense to exhaust the natural resources of other countries, but the price of that natural resource has gotten so large that they have nothing to do with the money, but buy out and buy into our infrastructure. Water, power generation, ports, etc.
As a resident of Doha I can tell you that the population growth in support of this oil and gas outgrowth has completely outstripped the infrastructure. Weekends are spent at home because any distractions in the city are overcrowded or inaccessible due to no parking or traffic. Working people make pitiful wages, and the arrogance of the local population is intolerable. I realize this is a stereotype, nonetheless, my anecdotal interactions have been infuriating.
The world must wake up and find ways to distribute the wealth of energy in a more equitable manner by developing real alternative energy sources. If we do not, I promise that in ten years the middle east oil giants will play the part of global financier. With their history of religious intolerance, brutality towards women, and a complete disregard for the rights of working people, this is not the region you want in charge of the global pool of money.
June 11, 2008 12:06 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 12:06
Doha is a soulless wasteland. It makes a wealthy Dallas exurb look like the height of urban vitality and sophistication. In fact, the entire Gulf is an unsustainable festival of conspicuous consumption and hypocrisy: new-money natives with all their taste in their mouth buying up anything with a big price tag and a designer label, sending their spoiled children to the local joke branches of American universities in a relentless quest to buy prestige, engaging in ostentatious displays of piety in public while guzzling single-malt Scocth and throwing sleazy sex parties in private, building their tacky skyscrapers with slave foreign labor that would make an ante-bellum plantation in the US South look benign, etc. If this is the future, we're all in a lot of trouble.
June 11, 2008 12:01 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 12:01
There is something wrong that a center of productive economic activity like the United States suffers while Qatar benefits just because it is geologically lucky. I'm not sure what the solution to this conundrum is. Perhaps at the very least, Qatar and other oil and gas exporting countries should allow unrestricted foreign investment to maximize production so as to keep prices as low as possible and allow foreigners to have a piece of the action.
June 11, 2008 11:40 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 11:40
Obama's VP choice
I suggest a complete and guaranteed win win for US and Muslims.
Mr. Obama chooses Mr. Osama as his VP. Mr. Osama apologizes for killing our innocent people. We apologize for killing their innnocent people. Both pay reparations to the families of the dead along with apologies.
Mr. Osama can be granted citizenship since the requirements for VP do not include born in US.
Mr. Osama brings a dowery of $1 trillion and our debts go to 0.
We like oil and they don't like our culture and our meddling. They give us the oil we need and we stop meddling in their affairs. This is a very easy win win for both US and the Muslims.
A 1.5 billion Muslim market becomes receptive to US products and business.
Everybody makes lots of money and everybody happy.
No more war and no more killing.
Obama and Osama
RH
June 11, 2008 11:37 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 11:37
.....droplets of this money goes to Eretirea,to terrorist organisations like Al Shabab of Somalia and ONLF in Ethiopia;to distabilize the region......
June 11, 2008 11:30 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 11:30
Obama's VP choice
I suggest a complete and guaranteed win win for US and Muslims.
Mr. Obama chooses Mr. Osama as his VP. Mr. Osama apologizes for killing our innocent people. We apologize for killing their innnocent people. Both pay reparations to the families of the dead along with apologies.
Mr. Osama can be granted citizenship since the requirements for VP do not include born in US.
Mr. Osama brings a dowery of $1 trillion and our debts go to 0.
We like oil and they don't like our culture and our meddling. They give us the oil we need and we stop meddling in their affairs. This is a very easy win win for both US and the Muslims.
A 1.5 billion Muslim market becomes receptive to US products and business.
Everybody makes lots of money and everybody happy.
No more war and no more killing.
Obama and Osama
RH
June 11, 2008 11:28 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 11:28
I just returned from Doha and the city centre is impressive. The construction boom is evident and SUV and expensive cars are in every market parking lot. The Qatari government is definitely taking advantage of the high oil prices. Ah, the Qatar Airways flight from Dulles to Doha was incredible. Qatar Airways is proud to say their airline is a 5 stars carrier… and I believe it.
June 11, 2008 11:01 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 11:01
"Qatar’s output of oil and gas combined is expected to reach the equivalent of 6 million barrels a day of oil"
there is the rub, Qatar has the world's 3rd largest reserve of Natural Gas, yet their oil fields are expected to run dry in 15 years (ref: wikipedia). You cannot combine "energy equivalent" natural gas with oil at $100 a barrel when calculating revenue, thats just not the way it works, see.
And they *are* following the Dubai model (see Qatar Pearl and all the development along the Corniche, nonstop flights from DCA via Qatar Airways shortly after Dubai launched their nonstop NYC flights, etc).
June 11, 2008 10:25 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 10:25
Diversification is the key to long term success, if you're a petro-dollar dependent state. However, it's quite difficult to get people to invest in other projects when oil and gas are paying off so well in the short term.
Qatar is also completely dependent on foreign labor.
June 11, 2008 3:11 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 11, 2008 03:11
==What that means in dollars is this: If the emirate earns $100 a barrel over the next 10 years, it will have total revenues of more than $2 trillion.==
Well, since they don't make any stuff they actually need, like food, maybe they can find a nostalgia collector in a couple of decades to trade the greenbacks to for a couple of sacks of rice.
It's not a sure bet, but its worth a try.
June 10, 2008 10:25 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 10, 2008 22:25
And yet, we can't raise the gas tax by even a penny to have some of the benefits of higher prices flow to alternatives sources and technologies. When will we ever learn?
June 10, 2008 3:15 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on June 10, 2008 15:15