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Oil Boone, or Bust?

Wire services report today that crude oil prices jumped over $129 a barrel in part because of comments by billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens, who told CNBC this morning that he expects oil prices to rise as high as $150 a barrel before the end of the year. And he said this is partly because of long-term trends – limited global production capacity and strong demand in China.

But buyers beware. Readers beware, too.Just three months ago, on February 22, Pickens told CNBC that oil prices would drop to $85 a barrel.

"I think oil's going to back off," Pickens said during the interview. "The weakest quarter is the second quarter. We'll drop $10 or $15 a barrel in the second quarter. I think we'll be back above $100 in the second half of the year."

By April 17, he switched gears again. He told Bloomberg News that he thought oil prices could approach $125 a barrel. He conceded in that interview that he had shorted oil earlier, essentially a bet that oil prices would drop, and that his hedge fund had dropped 21 percent in the first quarter. But he said he had covered that short position and was long on oil, meaning he was betting on higher prices. Still, he wasn’t betting on $150 then. Pickens said he expected prices could reach $150 a barrel but added, “I won’t be investing in $150 oil.”

How much should markets believe someone who can move markets with a cozy chat on a morning talk show when he stands to make millions of dollars on the market moving his direction?

Pickens describes himself as an oilman, and he did in fact train as a geologist and work in the industry, building up Mesa Petroleum. But Pickens made more money in the 1980s by drilling for oil on Wall Street through takeovers of companies bigger than his, and he sold his company in 1996. The company would be worth a lot more today; crude oil prices have quintupled since 1996.

He’s made money more recently by trading oil and natural gas in hedge funds that are part of his firm, BP Capital. His success means he’s savvy about oil, but he’s not exactly an unbiased oracle; he has a big stake in relatively short-term price movements. I’m interested in reading about what he has to say, but it’s worth taking his oil forecasts with a grain of salt.

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Comments (26)

carmelita chico:

In my opinion:
OIL PRICES STUMP EXPERTS

Simple, the experts are not really experts. Try to follow me on this:

• War in Iraq - Over-the-top consumption by US troops and their affiliates to continue the conflict unabated, spiking oil prices to higher levels
• Auto Makers - Increase size of gas tanks on SUVs and other models larger than ‘compact’ to accommodate the customers request for larger automobiles. Since the foreign autos are a rather large part of the USA economic picture, it makes sense that of course, the price to keep these toys on the road will escalate, until there is an alternative to using fossil fuel!
• Bush’s Blind Trust - is just that! Blind! Do some due diligence here to see where this trust dollar levels are today
• STOP importing foreign oil to USA immediately!
• Decrease national speed limit to 55 mph
• Encourage the public to use alternative methods for transportation, walking, car-pooling, biking, etc. There needs to be a concerted effort to scale back and/or upgrade our efforts to find fuel oil alternatives that will benefit our citizens and our economy. For the sake of trying to do business as usual, must come to an end. The American people deserve much better than they are getting at present.

Furthermore, the callous disregard to the citizens of this country should not be surprising. Remember, the election that put this current resident in office, was greatly flawed, abused and misused. The people were lead down the road by an inept and academically challenged person, who is now residing at 1600 PA Avenue. The only hope we have is that this term will be his last, and if the American people really want their voice to be heard, make sure they steer clear of the republican party and their cohorts. The very idea that John McCain may succeed Bush in this upcoming election is frightening and fraught with apprehension and outright fear of again, having to do on-the-job training for someone who should know what the requirements are for this office.

The problem with the price spike can be leveled directly at the Bush administration. Common sense dictates that because of the conflict, oil producing countries who have taken up the residuals formerly belonging to Iraq, are now charging the USA for that conflict. It does not make sense. However, the USA should demand immediately, that the oil prices be rolled back to the price at the time of the invasion. No exceptions! Our national security is at stake, and it seems no one is interested in protecting our great country! Why?

The Bush administration should lead be example, and not follow poor judgment so far displayed by foreign and outside interests. This administration has made selling off America, bit by bit, a priority. To question why these prices have sky-rocketed, go and ask that person residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and I do not mean the spouses of these numbsuchs.

Senator John McCain is not the answer! If you thought oil prices are high, wait until McCain tries to render a decision on these oil prices, while having another ‘senior’ moment. This country has paid the ultimate price to doing business with these foreign entities. All foreigners doing business with our country are/should be capable of enhancing the quality of life here in America as opposed to forcing an additional strangle hold on the good citizens. We have to intervene on our own behalf, since there is no assistance now, or ever, from this administration.

Problems are not that difficult to understand. What the problem is; is lack of comprehension and forethought to the needs of the citizens of the United States of America. The next resident should be very careful not to continue the abuse and misuse of the public’s sacred trust!

carmelita chico:

In my opinion:
OIL PRICES STUMP EXPERTS

Simple, the experts are not really experts. Try to follow me on this:

• War in Iraq - Over-the-top consumption by US troops and their affiliates to continue the conflict unabated, spiking oil prices to higher levels
• Auto Makers - Increase size of gas tanks on SUVs and other models larger than ‘compact’ to accommodate the customers request for larger automobiles. Since the foreign autos are a rather large part of the USA economic picture, it makes sense that of course, the price to keep these toys on the road will escalate, until there is an alternative to using fossil fuel!
• Bush’s Blind Trust - is just that! Blind! Do some due diligence here to see where this trust dollar levels are today
• STOP importing foreign oil to USA immediately!
• Decrease national speed limit to 55 mph
• Encourage the public to use alternative methods for transportation, walking, car-pooling, biking, etc. There needs to be a concerted effort to scale back and/or upgrade our efforts to find fuel oil alternatives that will benefit our citizens and our economy. For the sake of trying to do business as usual, must come to an end. The American people deserve much better than they are getting at present.

Furthermore, the callous disregard to the citizens of this country should not be surprising. Remember, the election that put this current resident in office, was greatly flawed, abused and misused. The people were lead down the road by an inept and academically challenged person, who is now residing at 1600 PA Avenue. The only hope we have is that this term will be his last, and if the American people really want their voice to be heard, make sure they steer clear of the republican party and their cohorts. The very idea that John McCain may succeed Bush in this upcoming election is frightening and fraught with apprehension and outright fear of again, having to do on-the-job training for someone who should know what the requirements are for this office.

The problem with the price spike can be leveled directly at the Bush administration. Common sense dictates that because of the conflict, oil producing countries who have taken up the residuals formerly belonging to Iraq, are now charging the USA for that conflict. It does not make sense. However, the USA should demand immediately, that the oil prices be rolled back to the price at the time of the invasion. No exceptions! Our national security is at stake, and it seems no one is interested in protecting our great country! Why?

The Bush administration should lead be example, and not follow poor judgment so far displayed by foreign and outside interests. This administration has made selling off America, bit by bit, a priority. To question why these prices have sky-rocketed, go and ask that person residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and I do not mean the spouses of these numbsuchs.

Senator John McCain is not the answer! If you thought oil prices are high, wait until McCain tries to render a decision on these oil prices, while having another ‘senior’ moment. This country has paid the ultimate price to doing business with these foreign entities. All foreigners doing business with our country are/should be capable of enhancing the quality of life here in America as opposed to forcing an additional strangle hold on the good citizens. We have to intervene on our own behalf, since there is no assistance now, or ever, from this administration.

Problems are not that difficult to understand. What the problem is; is lack of comprehension and forethought to the needs of the citizens of the United States of America. The next resident should be very careful not to continue the abuse and misuse of the public’s sacred trust!

Dimitry:

==President Bush should act immediately and sign executive order, authorizing drilling of all US Territory, building of refineries and nuclear power plants, before the rioting, looting, and chaos begins==

US oil peaked in the 70s. We can drill and drill and drill - there just ain't enough left here. Or anywhere else for that matter - I guess we can try for that small oil field at the bottom of the Mariana trench, but even at $150/barrel, the extraction price and energy are prohibitive. We can build refineries, but without oil they are just expensive idle chemical plants. Nuclear power plants will help, but they are very expensive, take a long time to build, require copious amounts of energy to construct in the first place and it would be nice to have a working plan as to what to do with the highly toxic waste, before we start making more.

Coal may end up being the only viable short-term replacement. So we can pick between near-total environmental degradation or near-total resource depletion.

Seriously, the government will have to step in this winter to subsidize the heating oil, which is essentially diesel and costs about the same. There are a whole bunch of people who are going to be in very serious trouble this winter.

Matt Owner Operator Trucker:

Well, I know one thing, if the price of diesel doesn't come down, and come down alot, prices will continue to soar skyward, many will not be able to pay for the production, manufacturing, transportation, and purchase, of all groceries, goods and services. President Bush should act immediately and sign executive order, authorizing drilling of all US Territory, building of refineries and nuclear power plants, before the rioting, looting, and chaos begins. He would be completly justified for national security purposes. Oh, I forget, then all those campaign posters and slogans would be outdated, you know, the ones that pander to us and say, "Vote for (so and so) Energy Independence". We wouldn't want the energy crisis be removed as a political issue now would we?

Robby Legianto:

http://www.2001-01.biz owner wants to give opinion...I really do not understand why Indonesia as Oil/Petroleum Exporting Country can not get profit from oil price increasing, some say : so many foreigner get involved in this business and want to nationalize this business, some really do not understand...like me

Dimitry:

==No matter how much production is increased prices will continue to rise because the supply is continuing to disappear.==

Right. I find it ironic that every oil talking head that is on TV is programmed to make the statement that "there is ample supply of oil, there is no concern". I guess they are trying to delay the panic that will ensue when the public demands that the governments use non-economic means to secure remaining oil supplies. It will only make matters worse, but it will crush their business, when the crowds with the pitchforks show up.

Dimitry:

==If I were an oil executive, testifying in congress I would have started my statement by thanking the Democratic Party, the enviromentalists, for with out their policies we would never had made the profits that we did. With holding areas to drill because you want to protect the enviroment, certain species, have allowed us to make such a large profit. You have proven the law of supply and demand with your policies in place does work. Then I would say congressman, just what do you plan to do to ease the price of oil, will you let us drill where we know there is oil, or will you punish your subjects by refusing to let us do whats right for them. The ball is in your court senator, people ordinary people are hurting, will you help them or will you turn your back on your subjects.==

Wow, one doesn't see this level of delusion every day. Check your numbers, not your TV, pal. American oil output has officially PEAKED in 1970s, with the untapped remainder being essentially a pittance, that would help on the margins only, even if we drilled every freaking wildlife habitat and killed every spotted owl. We will do it too, soon enough, but just like Saudi's inability to increase output, our tiny increase will be swamped by global demand and relatively small amount added to the supply.

For the "culprit" for you anger, try blaming the natural world, for only creating a finite amount of oil for us, that we, in our infitite wisdom have burned a half of already, with macmansions and mactrucks. Live it up, man!


Topwriter:

I need, as any aware person should, to point out that when Mr. Mufson says, "And he said this is partly because of long-term trends – limited global production capacity and strong demand in China." that he is actually softening reality.

The term, "limited global production" is much less drastic than something like, "dwindling oil supply."

Which is more accurate? ... Dwindling oil supply.

Global production is the result of corporate (man-made) efforts and as such could be increased.

Oil supply, however, is finite and the result of millions of years of geophysics and chemical process and, with ever increasing supply, the bucket is near empty.

So Boone has got this one right, and I'll go so far as to say the price of gas at the pump will reach 6 dollars a gallon by this time next year and 10 dollars a gallon in five years.

Further, I'll say that within many of our lifetimes we will see the complete depletion of the global oil supply -of what relevance will global oil production be then?

So, to all those who say the answer is to simply drill more (increase production) you're in a state of denial and ignoring the harsh reality that cannot be, ultimately, ignored. No matter how much production is increased prices will continue to rise because the supply is continuing to disappear.

Richard L. Albrecht:

If I were an oil executive, testifying in congress I would have started my statement by thanking the Democratic Party, the enviromentalists, for with out their policies we would never had made the profits that we did. With holding areas to drill because you want to protect the enviroment, certain species, have allowed us to make such a large profit. You have proven the law of supply and demand with your policies in place does work. Then I would say congressman, just what do you plan to do to ease the price of oil, will you let us drill where we know there is oil, or will you punish your subjects by refusing to let us do whats right for them. The ball is in your court senator, people ordinary people are hurting, will you help them or will you turn your back on your subjects.

Dimitry:

Here is a fun statistic for those complaining of "speculation" and "price fixing":

In the first 4 months of this year the price of fuel has risen 40% against the same time period last year. American fuel usage decreased only 2.5% in response.

This is called "inelastic demand". In this environment the seller is motivated to find the highest sustainable price and stick with it. It is the same as the illegal drug trade.

Dimitry:

==Ok, how about this.
The oil companies control the fossil fuel loop from the well head to transportation through refining to the retail gas pump. In other words, a monopoly. Let break up this strangle hold and allow competition. Some companies can pump the oil out of the ground, others can transport it, different companies can refine it, and still more companies can retail it, but no one company can control the entire production cycle. With competition between smaller companies the final price paid by consumers would no longer be determined by single, monolithic mega corporations.==

Ok, how about this - private oil companies control less than half of the world oil production, refinement and delivery. Stunning, isn't it?

Majority of the world's oil industry is in the hands of states and national companies.

There is no reason for aynone to compete for maximum sales and profit by lowering price against prevailing trend - everything that is being made is being sold. Why would the sellers sell for less, if they can sell everything they make for more?

Jaxon:


Why high oil prices?

HalliBush, Inc., that's why!

Remember the "secret" meeting Cheney had with the oil barons several years ago? The one where they refuse to release transcripts of the meeting? The one where cheney said they were discussing "national energy policy"?

Well, we're living the results of that policy right this very minute!

Yup, big oil has finally privatized the presidency! HalliBush, Inc. "What, me worry?"

pappy:

Ok, how about this.
The oil companies control the fossil fuel loop from the well head to transportation through refining to the retail gas pump. In other words, a monopoly. Let break up this strangle hold and allow competition. Some companies can pump the oil out of the ground, others can transport it, different companies can refine it, and still more companies can retail it, but no one company can control the entire production cycle. With competition between smaller companies the final price paid by consumers would no longer be determined by single, monolithic mega corporations.

Hank Whatever:

Why, Mr. leahy, did you not get the memo, "Corporations are people too" ? So was Scrooge. Not to worry, as the last boom to bust went, The oil industry is running out of drilling rigs. After the bust is complete, Houston will become a ghost town once more. It's good to be an American. It's just the law of the Stock Market, what goes up, must come down. Don't expect genious from a bunch of overpaid wildcattters or cattlemen. They all donate to charity as a matter of tax write offs. Indeed Mr. Leahy, do they practice tithing or should tithing be incorporated into the law ?

Marilyn Delson:

"Boone" should be spelled "Boon".

From Florida:

And oil companies tell the American people that higher profits that they are repoting are needed for oil exploration projects.
Has this bu** sh** from oil companies CEO has resulted in anything other than filling their own pockets?
It is joke to see them sitting in front of the senate committee reading their lies.

Dimitry:

==The President can require operators of domestic oil fields to produce at capacity if not already doing so.==

They are at capacity.

==He can also immediately require refineries to operate at an arbitrary 98% or higher capacity.==

Already are.

==Failure to immediately increase refining output to this arbitrary volume will result in federal condemnation of the facility.==

That's clever. We are kind of short of these things.

-------------------------------------------------
Anywho, it is easy to test if the oil is "too expensive" due to those darn speculators.

Lets just stop using it much, and watch the price crash with glee! Then we can laugh at all those silly speculators who just lost their shirts.

What? Can't stop using? Thought so.

Dimitry:

There is just no end to delusions for the technically challenged.

All right, one more time, very slowly:

Hydrogen in water is bonded to oxygen, using a chemical bond. In order to break this bond and make hydrogen free, one needs to expend energy. In a perfect world, you could do this in a lossless manner, so you could spend the same amount of energy freeing hydrogen that is locked in a water molecule.

Now, you have free hydrogen that is really, really ready to get back together with oxygen. When you let it do that, in a hydrogen fuel cell, you can get that energy you invested freeing hydrogen BACK AGAIN.

Now for the really slow - THERE WAS NO ENERGY GAIN in this process AT ALL. In real life you actually loose energy in this excercise. Why do it, you ask? Excellent question. One reason would be because chemical batteries are heavy, not very efficient and expensive. Hydrogen and a fuel cell make for a compact energy storage. However, several reasons mitigate against hydrogen energy infrastructure - it is HIGHLY volatile and explosive, very hard to contain without boiling off and require humongous energy plants to produce from water. These power plants would need the same amount of energy input (oil, natural gas or electricity) as is being "captured" in free hydrogen.

Forget the "I run my car on tap water". That's the modern equivalent of a snake oil salesman centuries earlier.

Chris S:

I came across a series of videos on the youtube website. This link http://youtube/watch?v=rEF-gwcOy0c will take you to the latest video.
Essentially what the videos show is an American engineer reverse engineering the work of a fellow engineer called Stan Meyers.


A bit of background............

In the 1980's Stan Meyers claimed to have developed a process which extracted huge amounts of hydrogen from tap water. There were a few documentaries made of his efforts, and he allegedly drove a vehicle
across the US on a tank of water. In the documentary he claimed to have been approached by Arab companies offerign to pay him signifcant sums of money to sit on th etechnology, but he refused.
Anyway he died rather unexpectedly apparently of food poisoning. He filed a number of patents regarding his technology some of which were calssified by the US Governement of the time.


Back to the original thread............


The engineer in the video John Aarons, has through a series of video recorded experiments attempted to reverse engineer from publicly available information the work of Stan Meyers. The latest video appears
to demonstrate a successful attempt at using cheap safe WATER to power a car ! I don't need to tell you how important this is if it is true, both in terms of alleviating poverty and also the difficulties this will cause governments and the energy industry in terms of loss of tax revenues from the energy industry.

European Governements have been claiming that the biggest threat to the global economy is rising Co2 levels from transport, well this breakthrough would eradicate this threat overnight. It would be interesting to see which the government values more, tax revenues or the health of the planet !

More and more people are replicating his work and driving on H2O and NO ONE is publicly dismissing his efforts as those of a crank. The main reason for his success has been the openness of his efforts. Stan Meyers failings and those of previous proponents of cheap energy have been to patent the technology in the hope of profitting massively from the technology. However by being altruistic with the technology humankind is the winner.


The information is out. Others are replicating his work. The information needs to be put out to a wider audience to gain a critical mass where people start refusing to be ripped off . Then we'll see that the arabs and russians won't be able to give their black gold away.

SqueakyRat:

If Pickens is such a huge influence on markets, how did he get burned by going short on oil just a few months ago? This whole post is a good example of Wall Street flogging the ocean waves.

SqueakyRat:

If Pickens is such a huge influence on markets, how did get burned by going short on oil just a few months ago? This whole post is a good example of Wall Street flogging the ocean waves.

Jason:

This oil spike reminds me of the Jonestown Suicides. If I worship at the alter of Boone Pickens and Goldman Sachs, they want me to be baptized and drink the $200 a barrel koolaid! After I believe, and ride this up to $200, do I wait for them to tell me to sell? I can see how this will end. The same way it did in Jonestown....

Sparky:

Looks like Slim Pickins to me...

Speculators do more harm to this country than good. But we can't take oil off the market now can we?

Someone had posted someting on one of boards that I saved and maybe someone could tell me if it's reasonable or not.

FormerRepresentative wrote:

This is not a Saudi problem nor is it caused by supply and demand. We already have the supply while we’re reducing demand.

Nothing short of Presidential market intervention will work. Only the President has this authority, and responsibility, without specific legislation.

The President is authorized to impose export controls for domestically produced crude and domestically refined oil products. This is his duty in managing strategic resources whose supply or cost threatens U.S. national security. He’s granted this authority by the National Security Act of 1947. A mere doubling of oil price, in our economy, is more devastating than a WMD attack on a major city. This relationship has been well studied and its consequences known for the past 40 years- since the first OPEC oil embargo. At least momentarily we must remove the U.S. crude supply from international markets for the benefit of U.S. citizens.

The U.S. is the third largest producer of crude in the world. U.S. oil companies also export 1.4 million barrels of crude per day (and growing as gasoline and diesel demand softens in the U.S.). An export suspension, by itself, will increase domestic oil, gasoline and diesel supplies by 20 to 30%.

The President can require operators of domestic oil fields to produce at capacity if not already doing so. He can also immediately require refineries to operate at an arbitrary 98% or higher capacity. Failure to immediately increase refining output to this arbitrary volume will result in federal condemnation of the facility.

The intent of these actions is to flood the domestic market with oil and refined product. He can remove commodity and options trading of crude and refined product from the national exchanges as a “strategic national resource”. The President could, overnight, set the national domestic crude, gas and diesel fuel price at a level that both encouraged exploration and production while being fair to the consumer. Existing U.S. production is predicated on $20.00 per barrel. He could allow crude imports by import permit only and only from selected foreign sources. He could allow oil companies to blend potentially higher priced imported foreign crude with lower priced domestic crude.

He could appeal to U.S. consumers to begin gas rationing voluntarily. This would further reduce demand. If the appeal doesn’t work he could institute gas rationing. Conservation by itself however will not work to reduce oil price without national export control. Immediately begin new diplomatic initiatives in Venezuela, Canada, Mexico, Nigeria and Brazil- our most important sources of foreign crude.

Initiate a national crash program designed to bring high volumes of plug in electric vehicles, lithium ion batteries and super mileage (100 mpg+) plug in hybrids onto the market as early as practicable but no longer than 48 months. Commercialize DARPA and national lab innovations in the motive transportation sector. Build coal liquefaction facilities in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana. Exploit North Dakota’s new found oil reserves.

In 2008 we should vote against every member of Congress that has accepted significant “Big Oil” or “Big Bank” (they are the oil traders) contributions, regardless of party affiliation. Money from these sources is a political poison pill. To check your Congressman’s or Senator’s contributions go to “opensecrets.org”.

This is a national emergency even though the White House refuses to acknowledge or deal with it. Bankruptcies and hyper inflation are already hitting the transportation and farm sector. By the way where’s everyone concerned with “strategic national threats”? Has “Big Oil” so infiltrated our energy, defense and intelligence agencies under this administration that devastation of our economy via oil price spikes and resultant hyper-inflation and currency devaluation no longer qualify as national security issues?

The solutions outlined above, if all were implemented, would result in a much lower crude price almost immediately with almost no cost to the government. If we don’t get serious quickly we’re looking at a national economic meltdown- although again you won’t hear it on the national news.
5/16/2008 1:30:07 PM

Investor:

Investors control their destiny...invest heavy in oil and price will go up....divert your money to other index and oil will drop....oil bubble is not the only factor increasing prices, but it's in fact one of the variables that is increasing price.....how much effect does it effect? i am estimating to be atleast 20% of current prices......if every oil investor sells price will fall for sure....simple economics supply vs demand that includes the demand of stock brokers purchasing oil stocks

R. Ford:

It's called "price fixing". In any other industry, he'd be answering to Congress and the Attorney's General. Why not now?

believer in your words:

well put ! don't forget his recent investments in wind and natural gas. without oil prices being high, these investments will not succeed.

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