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Bush's Oil Diplomacy

President Bush pays another visit to Saudi Arabia this week, but the visit isn’t likely to produce new flows of oil from the world’s biggest exporting nation. That's not just a matter of Bush's own diplomatic shortcomings - it's also linked to changes in the U.S.-Saudi relationship and changes in the kingdom’s view of its self-interest.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chas Freeman told me before I visited Riyadh last fall that years ago, the U.S.-Saudi relationship was based on a perceived exchange of U.S.-provided security for Saudi-exported oil. Nowadays, Saudi Arabia questions whether the U.S. invasion of Iraq enhanced the kingdom’s security and the region’s stability. And the Saudi royals also wonder whether the giant U.S. military can really protect the kingdom’s oil infrastructure from terrorist attacks. On the U.S. side, many analysts believe that Saudi Arabia, by cutting its oil output on several occasions over the past nine years, helped drive prices up to their current peak.

One sign of the breakdown of the oil-for-security exchange is the effort by a group of Democratic senators, led by Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia until that country increases its oil production. The kingdom could pump an additional 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day, though most of that excess capacity is comprised of heavier crude oils that many refineries are unable to process. The move in Congress isn’t likely to have much more impact than Bush’s visit. The Saudi oil policy seems surprisingly settled.

For years, many people viewed Saudi Arabia as a relative pricing “dove” in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries – meaning that it favored moderate price increases in order to keep consumers hooked on petroleum and avoid what OPEC ministers call “demand destruction.” But whatever gap might have once existed between OPEC pricing “hawks” (who push for more limited output and higher prices) and OPEC pricing doves has practically vanished.

In a meeting earlier this week at the Brookings Institution, Fareed Mohamedi of the PFC Energy consulting firm said that Saudi Arabia’s days as a pricing dove ended in the 1990s. Now, he said, Saudi Arabia worries less about oil consumers turning away from petroleum and focuses more about conserving its resources for future generations, while enjoying high prices in the current generation.

Another factor, he said, is that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are building up their own domestic industries to take advantage of their abudant oil and natural gas resources and capture some of the value added to finished products by Western companies. Georgetown University professor Jean-Francois Seznec noted at the same meeting that by 2015, Saudi Arabia will be the world's largest producer of petrochemicals, and by 2020 will produce a quarter of the world's aluminum. So the kingdom needs to keep some resources around to fulfill that vision of its future development.

Apart from changing Saudi attitudes, there are global reasons why the gaps between the two OPEC factions have narrowed. One is that growing world demand has soaked up most of the world's excess production capacity. OPEC doesn’t need to cut output much in order to boost prices, so the problem of cheating on quotas that plagued the group in the 1980s and 1990s has become mostly moot. Most members are pumping as much as they can while Saudi Arabia restrains its own output. And it has worked. Just 16 months ago, OPEC trimmed output and stopped the price of oil from sliding below $50 a barrel. Just 16 months ago, OPEC was worried about falling prices.

Even though prices are soaring now, OPEC has little fear about losing oil customers. Even though demand is stagnant or even falling in the United States, China and India are adding millions of cars a year.

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Comments (31)

Wei:

Ted Baines say:

"WEI
The Saudis may be buying GE businesses but the business is being run by non-Saudis, non-Muslims. If these engineers left the business would collapse."

Wow, for a minute, I was worried the Saudis will close all the US facilities and move them to Saudi or China.

Anyway IDF thinks one thing the Arabs good at is engineering. That's why it has been such a big problem at the border, where the Arabs keep building those complex covert tunnels smuggling in the weapons. IDF must be wrong. Huh, now I have to wonder if some Jews actually build these tunnels for the terrorists. Oh, wait, it must the Christians.

Ted Baines:

WEI
The Saudis may be buying GE businesses but the business is being run by non-Saudis, non-Muslims. If these engineers left the business would collapse.

Dimitry:

==Can't the US, or anyone for that matter, attempt to tap into the worlds oil fields from international waters?==

In great majority of cases, no. Kuwait, for example was slant-drilling into Iraqi oil fields before the Gulf War I, but it was rather an exception.

==With the economies of the world at stake, would it not be worth it to funnel some of 'defense' money into tapping the Middle East's oil fields? Are they only accessible via land? It could be construed as stealing I suppose,==

It would be stealing and against international maritme law, as well as trade rules.

==but if an oil driller drills from international waters, who is to stop them? or tell them no in some other way?==

If someone did that to our oil fields, we would first destroy the pumping infrastructure in international waters, then go the that company home country and destroy it, too.

==Seems to me an approach like that, coupled with the new drive to have alternative energies, would do the US, and the world a great service.==

Actually, no. It is called mercantilism and all it does is interferes with the most efficient way to distribute the oil that we do have - through an open and fair market. It isnt' the market's fault that the supply is limited and demand insatiable. Attempts to steal oil, attack other nations for it, occupy oil fields, nationalize oil companies, etc. only drives the price of oil up.

==Let's not forget that oil, in addition to gasoline, also creates plastics, and many other items that we depend on for such things as research, healthcare, defense, etc etc. Food for thought.==

Riiiiight...

Dimitry:

==Let’s get together a group of energy scientists and engineers, like we did for the atomic bomb, but let’s not keep it secret. The charter of this group would be to identify an alternative fuel that could be burned in existing automobiles, would be renewable,would cost less at the pump, and could be easily transported. ==

The eggheads will figure it all out for you, right? Maybe we should ask them for a money tree and a calorie-free cheese curl, while we are at it.

==This is not a difficult charter to meet. UCLA has already found a way to get ethanol from sugar at a cost of $1.00/Gal.==

Little problem, sugar man - we need sugar. How do we make sugar? Right, we grow stuff, then extract it. What do we need to grow stuff? - right, diesel to power farm equipment, artificial furtilizer made with carbon enerby sources to make it a high yield crop. Then we need to run a huge chemical factory, with external energy to turn sugar into car juice. Overall, the ROEI is small, somewhere between 1 and 2. ROEI on sweet crude is something like 20.

==Because of the technological capability of the US,once the world knew we were launching such an endeavor, this project would have an immediate impact on the price of oil. We have a reputation of meeting our research objectives. I'm sure there would be many oil rich nations that would be concerned.==

Maybe, a little. But since this ain't never gonna happen until it is way too late (and it is late already), it's a moot point.

Dimitry:

==It does not matter how long it takes to make ethanol from food. It is one of most beautiful stratigy conceived by Washington and most powerful weapon to keep the world hostage. Simply put, we are the largest food producer on the earth. If we decided to turn the food for other purposes, the price will go as high as that of oil. Saudis can keep their control on the oil tap. We will control the world's calorie.==

Excellent news indeed!

Will we have to genetically engineer a new type of human, one capable of metabolizing ethanol, instead of corn, like us?

wei:

Ted Baines say:

"Mike

I we stop arms sale to Israel, it will promptly make its own.

If we do the same to the Saudis , they will not know what to do> The Saudis cannot even make a screw to screw themselves."

No wonder GE sold its plastics business to Saudi. With their oil money, I can't wait to see who is next. Hopefully that will be one I own its stock.

Ted Baines:

Mike

I we stop arms sale to Israel, it will promptly make its own.

If we do the same to the Saudis , they will not know what to do> The Saudis cannot even make a screw to screw themselves.

Ted Baines:

Getting ethanol from sugar at 1 dollar per gallon is a great idea. We will have cheap energy and the lower consumption of sugar in our diet will reduce the incidence of diabetes.

Ted Baines:

Since OPEC does not believe in the free market, why should we let our products be sold to OPEC countries under free market pricing. We and all non-OPEC countries should impose a 5000% (five thousand%) tariff on all goods that OPEC buys. That would be fair.

Yousuf Hashmi:

Opec is no more a faithful and shy student of seventies who can take every advice from its teacher.

Now to dictate OPEC is very difficult. It is now a very shrewd organization playing its card very carefully and knowing that it has all winning cards in his hand.

They are definately more than happy to keep oil prices above 100 $. Although they fully knowledgable that at this price level Renewable energy resources becomes competative. but they want to keep gussing the world about the future oil trend.

Energy demand is self distructing mechanism. If the price of oil keep on rising then the energy conservation drive will start meaning slow down of economies and problem for emerging developing nations. but same time OPEC will sit tight on its rising oil revenues and so their economy will be stabilizing and therefore will attract more investment opportunities.

arjay1:

This discussion sounds like the Ameriphobics are blaming America for everything in the world. The 'world's largest food producer' could have began price supports for growing biofuels 20 years ago except the neolibs and neocons kept showing up in Congress with their own narrow agendas. Blaming America for everything that is wrong with the world is foolish; America is two hundred and some years old and it inherited 5000 years of human race aggression. Blame America for living one day to the next instead of planning for energy depletion (predicted in the 1950s)but spare everyone the Ameriphobe rhetoric of this country being the cause of all the problems listed here.
People don't seem to want to acknowledge some computer models that say ALL oil will be consumed by the mid 2050s no matter how much more is found. People seem to say: 'let the kids deal with it'.

shiraz:

The Saudis are hypocrites.Bush has decimated IRAQ and killed a million Iraqis and these guys give him the red carpet treatment.When will they realise that the US will do anything the Israeli lobby wants -even attack the puppets in Saudi?

Interests not morals are more important to the Israelis and neocons.
The truth will prevail even if takes 50 years and the internet has helped disseminate the truth-the tide will turn.The Palestinians will be freed like the black south africans and the slaves and the oppressed of the world.

tim in florida:

Why is it that our goverment follows the rules of the enviromentalist when it comes to drilling for oil. I think it is nonsence. With todays modern technology drilling would not effect any animals or the enviroment. Why don't they ask the american people what they want and put it on the November ballot. I don't think the enviromentalist would win. America when the time comes DO NOT RE-ELECT ANY CONGRESSMAN OR POLITICIAN TO OFFICE WHEN THERE TIME IS UP!! We need to start all over because the American Congress doesn't give a crap about the american people. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer nad there is no middle class anymore. It can't get any worse than it is. America Wake up please and let's get someone else in the white house who can stand up for america.

Mike:

"One sign of the breakdown of the oil-for-security exchange is the effort by a group of Democratic senators, led by Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia until that country increases its oil production."


Could we also block the $30 billion in arms sales to Israel until they produce something concrete re: peace with the Palestinians?

Chris:

Bush doesn't hold the same status with Abdullah that he or his dad might have with previous corrupt kings like Faud or Saudi ambassador Prince Bandar bin Sultan.

Abdullah knows Bush is a lame duck who just wants to look good in his final months in office.

Dan P:

*would not start investing and importing from...

Kevin99999:

Saudis are stupid and corrupt regime who need the U.S. for the survival of their own rule and legitimacy. In the end, their self-interest will be aligned with the U.S. interests as it has been for decades.

Anonymous:

we are not getting much oil from Saudi. have you checked your facts lately?

Dan P:

SLY OIL-

People establish natural resource extraction contracts for this very reason. I'm afraid your far-fetched idea will never work. We can only extract from undiscovered sources within our territories, or strike contracts for the oil resource exploration and extraction with the nation and/or entity who owns the according land.

Keep in mind there are even treaties/conventions regulating use of space/the sky.

HYPOCRITE1- Granted the US is the world's largest producer of food, we have maintained such a position through terrible agricultral policies who hurt small farmers in the US and across the world. We have also recently seen the devestating implications of directing too many funds to produce ethanol from food crops. Simply put, yeah we have power as the world's largest food producer...to twist the arm of countries in the Middle East..but it is also hurting many other countries, and even people in the US.

And please, don't be as naiive to think that if America caused food prices to raise to extreme levels, that the Middle East and everyone else in the world would start investing in, and importing food from, different countries. Per usual, if you want to send another country a economic lesson 1) don't buy their products, or 2) invest somewhere else


Scott in NC:

The Addict in Chief begging for oil. Pathetic.

What would happen if we took 25% of the record windfall profits Big Oil is making and invested the resulting $Bs to real programs to improve solar technology and wind power distribution? Would we still be begging 15 years from now?

hypocrite1:

It does not matter how long it takes to make ethanol from food. It is one of most beautiful stratigy conceived by Washington and most powerful weapon to keep the world hostage. Simply put, we are the largest food producer on the earth. If we decided to turn the food for other purposes, the price will go as high as that of oil. Saudis can keep their control on the oil tap. We will control the world's calorie.

rightibmlett:

I still exploring returned or burnt, with my and eat him. We had is still

vote: Internationalize Al PETROLIUM, Specific Comodities On Space-Ship Earth!:

The U.S. is as Depenent on Crude From WAHHABi Saudi's (7=Million daily , as UKRAiN/Europe is Dependent on Russia's (7- Million a Day Capacity +/-.

ke bacon:

How long does it take to make ethanol?

hypocrite1:

They have oil. Fine, we have food. Let's make more ethanol. See who will blink first.

hypocrite1:

The neocons have commited one of their biggest blunders ever. We should have sent our tanks to Riyadh instead of Baghdad. After $440 billions of blood and flesh, we are awarded $126 a barrel. This is despicable. However, it is never too late for changes. I can't believe that Cheney is contemplating Tehran instead of Riyadh. We need change in Washington. We need Obama.

Curious in Portland:

How do we know that Saudi Arabia is able to increase their output? Have they been able to produce more oil in the recent past? Are there independent oil experts who can verify their excess capacity?

Sly Oil:

A WAY TO DECREASE OIL COST:

Great idea! Let's not use a food source though....

A WAY TO DECREASE OIL COST:

Let’s get together a group of energy scientists and engineers, like we did for the atomic bomb, but let’s not keep it secret. The charter of this group would be to identify an alternative fuel that could be burned in existing automobiles, would be renewable,would cost less at the pump, and could be easily transported.

This is not a difficult charter to meet. UCLA has already found a way to get ethanol from sugar at a cost of $1.00/Gal.

Because of the technological capability of the US,once the world knew we were launching such an endeavor, this project would have an immediate impact on the price of oil. We have a reputation of meeting our research objectives. I'm sure there would be many oil rich nations that would be concerned.

Sly Oil:

Can't the US, or anyone for that matter, attempt to tap into the worlds oil fields from international waters? With the economies of the world at stake, would it not be worth it to funnel some of 'defense' money into tapping the Middle East's oil fields? Are they only accessible via land? It could be construed as stealing I suppose, but if an oil driller drills from international waters, who is to stop them? or tell them no in some other way? Seems to me an approach like that, coupled with the new drive to have alternative energies, would do the US, and the world a great service. Let's not forget that oil, in addition to gasoline, also creates plastics, and many other items that we depend on for such things as research, healthcare, defense, etc etc. Food for thought.

Independent:

Very perceptive. I would add that the invasion of Iraq was likely viewed by the Saudis as an attempt by the Bush administration to develop an alternate source of oil (other than Saudi Arabia). That's when the oil-for-security arrangement got irreparably broken.

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