I think the situation in Iraq will eventually be resolved by Iraqis, but the presence of Americans will delay any serious attempts at a solution. The exit of American troops might cause a temporary rise in violence but it would not be sustained, because withdrawal would remove the strongest and most immediate argument for armed opposition.
Insurgents would then be forced to look themselves in the mirror, to question and redefine their cause. In addition to this, other countries in the region would be forced to step up and provide assistance to the Iraqis, something they have shied away from for two reasons: no one wants to be seen as an ally of the American occupiers, and any involvement in Iraq’s sectarian conflict might cause problems back home. When the Americans leave, the first excuse will disappear, and Iraq’s neighbors will have no choice but to consider honestly and pragmatically what they can do to help the Iraqis.
The Americans have stepped on enough mines that have exploded in all directions; removing their boots from Iraq will cause a few thuds here and there but will be nothing like the explosions that have already occurred.
Please e-mail PostGlobal if you'd like to receive an email notification when PostGlobal sends out a new question.
