Amman, Jordan - There is no doubt that the war on Lebanon will make the Middle East and the world much more dangerous. On the day of the ceasefire, which will one day come, Israel will find itself where they began the moment their soldiers were captured.
The Israelis have bitten off more than they can chew. They will not be able to eliminate Hezbollah. Israel will be forced to negotiate the release of their soldiers for Lebanese (as well as some Palestinians and Arabs) prisoners held in Israeli jails. Sure, the Israelis or the UN might call for a 10 kilometer buffer between Lebanon and Israel, but this is unlikely to affect the 50 kilometer ranged rockets (and maybe the even more powerful and yet unused rockets).
With its major destruction of infrastructure and human toll, this war will increase the anger, hatred and rage of most civilian Lebanese and the Israelis who have been pulled into this conflict. Any end short of total and complete elimination of Hezbollah (which is highly unlikely as it represents a rare effective Arab resistance movement and not just leaders and fighters) will play into the hands of Hezbollah whose leader today is bigger than life. The day after the ceasefire is certain to produce a difficult internal situation in Lebanon, and within the Arab countries and will undoubtedly leave its effects on the entire region.
After the hotheads have had their day and the pride of various militaries have been restored, then sanity could return and bring some good things. For example, out of this war could come a renewal (not the first time) of serious attempt to find a solution to the Palestinian issue in particular and the Arab-Israeli conflict in general. Some time after the end of hostilities we are also likely to witness reduced the tension around the issue of prisoners in Israeli jail who have clearly become a liability and a hot potato in the hands of the Israelis.
Finally we might witness some type of tranquility as a result of some kind of balance of terror. Both Israel and Hezbollah have proved so far that they can terrorize the population of the other. Any cross border attack or provocation or continued imprisonment of citizens of the other side will receive a much higher set of calculations now that each side knows that the pain that the other side can inflict on them.
Most importantly, as long as major powers continue to play a partisan game that allows the biggest bully in the neighborhood to dominate and as long as international humanitarian law disallowing civilian casualties continues to be ignored, the end of this war will not bring peace to the region.
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