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Christine Ockrent

Paris, France

Christine Ockrent is regarded as one of France's most respected broadcasters, the only journalist granted an interview with Saddam Hussein in the middle of the Gulf War. As well as becoming the first woman to anchor and edit the prime time news, Christine has also edited the current affairs journal L'Express, worked as the deputy director-general of France's TF1 channel and presented the country's flagship magazine and program on French and European politics, France-Europe Express. She also anchors a monthly program on international affairs on TV5Monde. Close.

Christine Ockrent

Paris, France

Christine Ockrent is regarded as one of France's most respected broadcasters, the only journalist granted an interview with Saddam Hussein in the middle of the Gulf War. more »

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Lebanon, A New Stronghold for Iran

Paris, France - Whatever the outcome of this war, Hezbollah will be seen as the only Arab force able to win over Tsahal. Its hold over Lebanon will give Iran and the Shias more leverage than ever, weakening the neighbouring...

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All Comments (13)

Robert:

Can't we all just get along

kamal:

I hope Hezbollah can be destroyed because no matter what damage they recieved they in the arab world are precieved as heros . So i might conlcude that they might impose thier influence to cover all lebanon and specailly the lebanese christian community . So the UN or Nato soldiers must not only stand on the isreali lebanese border to insure isreali safety but must also be at the borders between lebanon and Syria to control any weapon transportation . The big loser is both Lebanon and isreal if Hezbollah remains armed . The continual of the arms of Hezbollah will turn a wonderful free lebanon in to Iran regime .

Ace Johnson:

"Whatever the outcome of this war, Hezbollah will be seen as the only Arab force able to win over Tsahal." So according to this, if Israel kills all the Hezbollah fighters including Nasrallah they still lose? Sounds like you're stating a position that you want to see come true Christine.

My hope is that Hezbollah will be soundly thrashed in the end and the Lebanese army with a NATO led force will be put in place until the Lebanese army can be trained to re-take their country back from Iran. That is the scenario I belive will unfold... in perhaps a month or two at the worst.

Of course we Americans are quite naive and should probably listen more to our wiser European counterparts. The people that produced Nevelle Chamberlin, Hitler, Stalin, Franco, Mussolini and lets not forget the Vichy French.

Appeasment doesn't work with people who call for your annihilation. Believe me, if the Israeli's beat the stuffings out of Hizbollah (which they will) everyone will know it and I truly believe the Lebanese and Sunni in general will be quietly greatful.
the media distorts it.

Mark:

Hezbollah was created, armed, and financed by Iran and can only survive with continuing Iranian support. The only clear winner of this conflict will be the mad Iranian regime and maybe Syrian government (no good guys either). The clear losers will be the people of Lebanon who will continue to be governed by terrorists.

The international community clearly understands all this yet has been willing to come along with Iran for a ride. This is total disgrace, especially given that the UN is moving to a head-to-head confrontation with Iran over nuclear weapons. I guess the very day the sanctions are imposed Hezbollah will fire another missile into Israel and the second chapter of Iranian play will begin. If Europe is not willing to stand up against Iran now when it is not too late, will it ever? Lebanon is no Spain but 2006 in the Middle East looks a lot like 1936 did in Euope.

Indo-Canadian:

Recently several hundred civilian's were killed by bombs planted by Muslim extremists in Bombay. However India has not retaliated against Pakistan even though there is strong suspcion that these extremist groups are based in that Country. Since both countries are Nuclear armed such a course would be co-detructive.

The problem with Israel is that since it is so much militarily stronger than its neighbours it can take the easy way out to vent its anger and frustrations instead of the hard way -- addressing the root causes of the conflict (withdraw from the occupied territories and let the Palestinians (and now lebanese) some dignity).

soleimon egeh:


Asymmetrical Warfare-The New War Of The 21st Century

What you see happening in Lebanon, is a shocked state of Israel who can't believe what is still transpiring in Lebanon. All of a sudden, Israel, a country used to a short, quick, lightening victories is embroiled in pitched battles, with relativel huge casualities with a formidable non state actor for about a month. Apparently what is happening in Lebanon, is a vivid demonstration of the ineffectiveness of the large army philosophy. Lebanon and Hezbolleh may be, just may be, a prelude to a new 21st century style of warfare, which renders, the large, heavy and sluggish armies of the 20th century absolete. I share the frustration of the Iraeli army, because they are facing an invisible, highly motivated, agile, formidable, swift,versatile and above all creative foe. The outcome of this current will tremendously strength Hezbolleh's position. It will also put into perspective, the ineffectiveness of large, heavy armies, in front determined, well-armed and agile foes, fighting in a familiar environment. Iam sure, some military academies, will assess the lessons learned of this current war in their class rooms. This a whole new ballgame

Joe:

It is undeniable that the shias in Labanon have been dealt a devastating blow through the current Israeli offensive. Dozens of Shias villages have neen destroyed, Hundreds of thousands of civilians displaced, and the backbone of the economy in shias areas has been broken. This is clearly going to affect how these civilians feel about Hizbollah, and how they are going to feel about supporting another hizbollah adventure in the future. Ultimately, when the military capabilities of Hizbollah are degraded (and Israel is determined to do so), and the poor Shias population is faced with only devastation and no real gain on the ground to justify it, this polulation will turn away from Hizbollah. We have to give these people some credit and believe they are not going to follow a path that leads to self destruction forever. After all, regular people want to be able to live normally, raise their families and improve their economic status. Religious fundamentalism, Hizbollah style, will certainly be the loser.

Anonymous:

Destruction of Hizbollah's arsenal will not destroy Hizbollah. Hizbollah, after all, is people. Iran and Syria's arsenals are full of such armament which will be quickly replaced. Hizbollah may not occupy a UN mandated neutral zone in overt force, but they will occupy the territory adjacent to it in force. And, since many of those that live in this neutral zone have loyalty to Hizbollah, UN or international forces will not be able to prevent infiltration. The question will then be - what will transpire when (not if) the troops placed to separate the sides, become the targets for terrorists - as are the American troops in Iraq?

RC:

I think in the western psyche, any association between religion and government is a huge threat. So rise of Hizbollah is seen as a hugely negative force in the Western world. But it has the exact opposite notion in the muslim world because Muslims did not have to separate religion and state.

Logikal:

Joe above declares that the potential consequences of this war will be different if the war is allowed to continur for few more weeks and Hizbollah's power is weakenned. Did we not hear the same thing after the first week of fighting? The longer the conflict goes, the stronger -in the mind of people throughout the middle east- Hizbollah will become, and the more people will volunteer to join Hizbollah and the likes.
What is needed is to get to the root of the problem, and that is not Hizbollah. The problem existed ever since the Palestinians became refugees, and the west turned their back on them.
LAND for Peace, compensate the Palestinians and the Lebanese. Then support home-grown middle-east styled democracies. That is the one and only solution.

William:

Many analysts agree now that the assasination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri was most likely conducted by Tsahal who needed to push Syria out in order to conduct it's operations in Lebanon. It makes no sens to consider Syria and Iran as a key for anthing but an excuse ro reshape the region according to the "New world order" presented by the Bush Administration. This remake of President Kissinger plan was detailed in his book over two decades ago... It deserves really more analysis that Syria or Iran's so called "Key Influence" or "Power".

Hussein:

The unfolding of the future events will not be easy to determine, by all means this war proved that Hizballah is not an easy target for any regular armed force, and they also proved that they are widely supported by the Lebanese people. We must all remember that Israel is the one who killed more than 1000 civilians and the death toll is always rising. The responsability of the war lays totally in the hands of the Israelis no matter what excuse they will hide behind, we all remember that in 1982 they used the assasination attempt of the Israeli ambassador in London to invade Lebanon, which turned out to be bogus and fake.

Joe:

Ms. Ockrent is correct about the potential consequences of the current Israeli-Shias-Iran war in Lebanon. The consequences she describes are almost guaranteed if the outcome of the war is a return to the status-Quo without any significant degaradation of Hezbollah's military capabilities. If however, the Irsaeli offensive continues at its current pace and successfully destroys most of Hezbollah's arsenal, which would likely happen if the war continues for the next 2-3 weeks, Lebanon will have a strong chance of recuperating from the current crisis. The Shiites in their majority will then embrace traditional lebanese leaders and the Amal movement as their representative and the only loosers will be Iran and Hizbollah's supporters.

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