Bjorn Lomborg at PostGlobal

Bjorn Lomborg

Copenhagen, Denmark

Bjorn Lomborg is adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School, and author of the best-selling book, The Skeptical Environmentalist, where he challenges our understanding of the environment, and points out how we need to focus our attention on the most important problems first. His first book has been published in the major languages around the world and he is a frequent participant in the current debate, with commentaries in such places as New York Times, Wall St. Journal, Globe & Mail, The Guardian, The Daily and Sunday Telegraph, The Times, The Australian, the Economist. He has also appeared on TV, such places as Politically Incorrect, ABC 60 minutes, CNN, BBC, CNBC, and PBS. In May 2004 he organized the "Copenhagen Consensus" which brought together some of the world's top economists. Close.

Bjorn Lomborg

Copenhagen, Denmark

Bjorn Lomborg is adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School, and author of the best-selling book, The Skeptical Environmentalist. more »

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Get Your Priorities Straight

The question is wrongly put. Imagine if our forefathers 100 years ago had known about global warming. Would we have thanked them for not using fossil fuels even if it left us much poorer, able to do less, having say, 4 billion people living on $1-a-day rather than 1 billion? I certainly don't
think so. The refrigerator, for example, has saved us from eating bad, rotten food. So stomach cancer has dropped from being the most prevalent form of cancer in 1900 to the lowest today.

The question doesn't hold today. Yes, global warming is (partially) man-made, but that doesn't mean cutting CO2 is the best thing we can do for the future.

If we cut carbon emissions with Kyoto, it will cost $180 billion annually, but only postpone warming for about five years in 2100. We have to ask: Is that what the future really wants?

Take malaria for example. People point out that the spread of the disease will increase with global warming. This is partly true. If we conform to Kyoto Protocols, we will at best cut the total incidences of malaria by 70 million over the century. But if we really
care about the future, we could do so much better. If we spend just $3 billion annually (less than 2% of Kyoto’s cost) on mosquito nets, sprays and medication we could save 28 billion people from malaria. Isn't that better?

Many people would undoubtedly say this only shows we should cut more CO2. But even if stopped global warming right now (very unrealistic) at a cost of much more than $85 trillion, this would only help reduce malaria by one billion cases over the century.

Many would say we should do both. Yes, we should do all good things, but until we do them all, I think we should do the best things first. At the Copenhagen Consensus, some of the world's top economists (including four Nobel Laureates) showed us which solutions do amazing good for our investments (HIV/AIDS prevention does $40 dollars worth of good for each dollar spent, malnutrition $30 for each dollar) whereas Kyoto does only perhaps 25 cents worth of good for a dollar. And cutting CO2 dramatically is even worse (about 2 cents). So the malaria argument, although just one instance, is emblematic of the larger case.

This does not mean we shouldn’t deal with climate change over the long-term, but
we shouldn't make big, expensive, ineffective cuts now (which many politicians promise but inevitably fail to produce). Dealing with global warming is a century long process spanning parties, continents and generations. We need a smart plan. That is not Kyoto. That is investment in R&D for non-carbon emitting energy technologies. I have suggested spending 0.05% of GDP on this -- $25 billion annually. This won't solve global warming overnight, but it will be low-cost and doable. It will solve global warming within a century timescale.

To finally answer the question, let me repeat a story told by Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling. The UN climate panel expects that the average person in the developing world will be much richer in 2100 than the rich world is today (just like a hundred years ago, Denmark was a poor, peasant state.)

So, imagine an average Chinese, Congolese or Columbian in 2100 thinking back on 2007. Maybe he will be amazed we cared so much about him that we were willing to spend vast sums of money to curb global warming, helping him out just a little bit. But he will likely also think: “How odd that they cared so much for me, who is now rich, but cared so little for my grandfather and my great-grandfather, whom they could have helped so much more, at so much lower a cost. These were the men who needed help most desperately.”

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Reader Response -- Latest Featured Comment

» Bjorn Lomborg | Hey guys. Thanks for lots of comments. Just a few factual points. $180 billion/year for the Kyoto Protocol will not bring us to the poorh... Top Commenter
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