Cuba's a small, poor country with very little infrastructure. Could it simply become a backwater with a dictatorship supported by its valuable nickel and oil deposits?

There is too much spam on this board. Somebody needs to start deleting entries which repeat text strings over and over.

The USA has neglected the problems of south and central America, this goes back to the Kennedy presidency, when he stop the bay of pig invasion in Cuba, It was Che Guevara and Fidel Castro ideology, to spread thru the Americas communistic ideology.
Now the USA has a bigger problem with Chavez, the Idea is to take over Colombia and Panama and have control of the canal, Cuba did not have oil but Venezuela has plenty and he is giving it away to persuade and influence the other countries in Latin America, he has bought offensive armaments in great quantities and these are new state of arts.

I don't think by Castro resigning his post things will change that much, Raul Castro has the same Ideas, I has a Cuban would like to go back if Cuba becomes a democratic state, also Cuba has fought for it's Independence from Spain longer than any Latin America country, I don't think it will be part of the USA, Ironically Cuba and the USA are entwined, for example the USA became a world power after the Spanish American war, Teddy Roosevelt fought in San Juan Hills Cuba, and then became president, Bush became president because of the Cuban votes in Florida.

On the issue of Real Estate in Miami, don't worry about that, there will plenty of south American coming to Miami once the wars that Chavez is going to start, Miami will be full of people, it already has a large population of Venezuelans and Columbians.

I hope the new presidents will not Waite for missiles from Iran to be deployed in Venezuela; I live you with a thought..........

My comment: I) Do it explorations with Raul Castro Group and start relations. II) The economic embargo for all these decades shoul be finished, like discretion fire in the battle with Hugo Chavez,but the cuban people want goin to Miami not Caracas. III) The economy cuban need capital freesh to live.IV) The companys american shoul be in the land cuban not venezolan companys, the companys USA must be like a V8 car and economy cuban.

Cuba has no duty to return nationalized properties. The US hasn't returned land stolen from the Native Americans, land stolen in violation of treaties signed by the President and ratified by Congress. Why should Cuba be held to a higher standard than the US?

Shame on you! Is not Puerto Rico the 51 state, then? Well, if USA want colonize Cuba, why dont you begin in Mexico, then Central America and so on? Hurry, do it before China!

Not much of an analysis, Cuba is so deprssed because it has been run by a communist system that hates private enterprise. The fact that USA has an embargo is only partially responsible for the poverty. 99% of the problem is the communist system that will not allow Cubans to prosper by trading with Europe. Cuba has no production thus nothing to trade, The Economist is full of empty brains.

It`s relly amazing, the way you are showing yo can not wait for eating the entire island...bad boys,...everyday confirming latinamericans what kind of pigs you are!

A post Fidel Castro Cuba is an unknown quantity in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean communities. It is doubtful that The United States is ready to have a fifty-first state that has an alien culture and society. The Cubans in Miami have not been on the island for almost fifty years. The children and Grand Children of these Cuban exiles have only known the United States. It is best to allow the people on the Island without the influence of Americans to set their own political future in the Western Hemisphere. The diplomacy of China and Venezuela will have as little influence on Cuba as did the efforts of the Soviet Union and The United States during the "Cold War" to influence communal interests in the Americas and Africa. Cuba will be the home of Cubans steeped in the rich heritage of the Spanish Main.

Michael Fay,
College Station, Texas

We spent a day in Mexico with a very smart European university student, who was spending a year in Havana, Cuba at the university to learn Spanish.

She told us about a sad situation. Much poverty. People are just trying to survive. Bad services. And people who lost hope for a change. A lot of depress people psychologically. These are the words of a smart outsider who actually spent a year there. And I believe it.

At the same time I met many Cubans in all of Latin America. Very smart people. Well educated mostly outside of Cuba. Generally within the top management of companies. I am sorry but I saw this huge difference between Cubans and other Latin American locals.

I agree with the comments about the US embargo not being smart. We are just letting the doors open to other nations, our competitors, when our product influence could help a positive change of a people without much hope today. We should take some positive steps that help the people. Allow medicines, some critical products, and some businesses to start negotiating contracts.

The people are hoping that we, the USA will do something useful and helpful now. It is Cuba where the CIA should have big funding and produce successful results. Not like in the Middle East where our intel outcome was pretty weak.

The resignation of Castro, is an unexpected political change promoted by the communist party towards a stable transition to a post-castro Cuba. It is challenge taken by the communist party to make that happen and avoid traumatic changes. In this period, any change will be seen as approved by the Comandante and therefore minimize the view of internal political struggle within the party. It also leaves the US with little capacity of maneuver as long as US sticks to the embargo. On the other hand the scenario of abrupt changes in Cuba once Castro dies looks quite distant to materialize and to the extend that there is a smooth transition in Cuba, foreign investment may pick up and help to relax some political control by the communist party. Cuba may follow the Chinese model of government where the first stage of democratization is limited to the party itself, postponing for quite a time more civil liberties to its people.

As usual, many of you repeat the common place of considering Latin Americans stupid.

¿are we oblied to condemn the island to be a colony?
Certainly not. So the point isn´t China, USA or Venezuela. The point is what the cubans really whant to do.

¿Why don´t we just listen what they have to say? I imagine some of you will answer: "okay, we try. But there is no freedom in Cuba"...discuss capitalism in America and see what happens.

People in Cuba are not idiots, or at least they are not so negligent as to support a tirany that leads them to innecesary wars or economic bankrupt. So let´s see what they want to do before planning to invade. I am sure they will manage to find their own path.

And sorry, but I found this discussion a little offensive to cubans.

(Sorry for my english. When you invade Argentina I will have chances to learn better...)

For the Bush Adminstration Cuba will only become a democracy when it installs a government that takes White House orders. Remember, Yasser Arafat, winner of the Palestinian Presidental Election was named by the US Gov't Chairman of the PLO, but General Mustarraf, self-appointed was declared President of Pakistan by the White House and News Media. The general was willing to take orders; eventhough, his intellegence agency aids the Taleban.

What could be worse than to have the stable Cuban system destabilized by a menacing Venezuelan populist. Cuba may even have large offshore oil deposits that the Chavistas might let Chinese or Russian firms develop, to the woe of Exxon-Mobil. Things are much more delicate than in 1962. Time to send U-2 planes over the island to spot any threatening oil derecks. Time to send Havana an ultimatum: let in US oil firms and Trump casinos, or risk its worst fear: repatriation of the exiles!

Once CUBA becomes free, the USA will help rebuild it. The UN should move there from New York. it removes agents of enemies off our shores and it's still close enough to overlook. the Cubans will also keep the ambassadors in line.

The Venezuelan clown can't manage his own country much less any other country even if it was a tenth of the size of Cuba.
Yoel said Cubans resent Venezuelans? Ok, wellcome to the resented people club. Here Venezuelans resent Cuban "experts". You should see your ambassador buying 1000 USD worth of grosseries in our best supermarkets while cubans can't find toothpaste in La Habana and Venezuelans have to jump from market to market looking for milk. And the cuban medics sent to Venezuela are using every opportunity to defect.
The main power in Cuba will be the new maffia that will be formed by the post Castro communists. They will take over the best business and leave the common people to rot. They are used to rot thanks to Castro, so there would be not much difference.
Until they realize why they are rotting!!

the people of CUBA will decide CUBA'S fate. Chavez has enough problems and has less cash now to export his hate.

There is no denying that Fidel Castro put an end to the American mobs front man Baptista
and have prevented over the past 50 years the USA mafia from resurrecting the beautiful Cuban Island to once again becoming an offshore US Casino and Brothel. The giant steps taken by the Cuban people to erase illiteracy and improve general health care is something the American public will never experience and of course one of the reasons why the American administration hates the Cuban leadership. The American complaints that in Cuba some 70 people was arrested some time ago for anti-Cuban activities is a joke considering that USA illegally holds hundreds of people from all over the world incarcerated in Cuba for years abusing and torturing these people at the pleasure of the sexually perverted US military personnel.

I think a great deal of this theorizing is grounded in anything other than an understanding of Cuban realities. The rest of the party needs Raul, like him or not, and not all dislike him. He remains a link to Fidel and none of them have anything like the claim to legitimacy that Raul has.

The Cuban populace, for their part, are interested in improving their standard of living, but that does not mean opening their arms unconditionally to the US. or Chavez. Chavez, and more specifically, the Venezuelanos who have come to Cuba as a result of the influence of Chavez, are at best resented by the Cuban on the street. Don't forget that the Cuban public is as patriotic as they are interested in improvement. I doubt most would be willing to sign any "open contract," no matter whether it is with Uncle Sam or primo Hugo.

What is more likely is that with Raul at the helm, and with at least temporary underwriting by Chavez, enough change will be made to relieve the internal pressures long enough to re-entrench. If significant change occurs, it will likely happen slowly.

We should not count of outside influences to weigh overwhelmingly in the equation. After all, we are talking about a system that survived the collapse of the Soviet Union without opening to the west the way Eastern Europe did. Speak in haste, repent at leisure.

Cubans going back to the Island and Cuba not welcoming Americans....You mean we wont have meddling Cubanos down in the sunshine state.

Sounds like a fine 'damn good idea to me....

Chavez can have it.....

China too........

I completely agree with the above statements, especifically as it relates to American Cubans and their efforts to reclaim Cuban real estate. But the important question that we should be asking is whether such an educated, knowledgeable and collective community is willing to allow the revolution to collapse. That is, there are many accomplishments and a great legacy that Castro's revolution will leave CUBAN's to contemplate. Among those victories are the following: free access to education; health care; and erradicating extreme poverty. There is no single country in the world that has been able to achieve this, even though Cuba does not have access to the great modern advances of the world. I think we underestimate CUBAN's. They don't have the same egocentric views that most industrial countries have. Cuban's actually value their culture; their struggles as a people; their revolution; and their immesuable accommplishments in spite of an inhumane, illegal and unprecedented embargo.

Castro's departure as ruler of Cuban is akin to the removal of the Berlin Wall for East Germany back in the 1990s. It will no longer make sense to have cultural, economic or trade barriers between America and Cuban. The future for American and Cuban relations is bright, no matter who takes over the White House in 2009. The window of opportunity is now.

When change comes to Cuba, it will be swift and immediate. The slightest economic opening with the USA will break the flood-gates. Any allowance of private property, and real estate, tourism, agriculture will boom in Cuba. The US will become the main trade partner immediately. How many hundreds of thousands of college kids will be spending their money in Havana in 2013? How many millions of Cuban/Hispanic Americans will return to open businesses? Certainly this could happen soon after Fidel dies. More likely, Fidel's gay brother may be able to hold on for a while, but the regime absolutely won't outlast Raul. Meanwhile, even afterwards, few on the left will still cling to the fantasy about "universal health care" or the "gains of the revolution" (which are absolute fiction) just like a few old communists in Russia would like Stalin back, or a few Nazis still yearned for Hitler after WWII.

Chavez is a clown.... and Castro a murderer.
Cubans will thrive in a free society and capitalism if given the chance.
We need to flood that island with investments and once the see the outside world... They will never go back... look at Eastern Europe

They are tired of the socialist lies

Chavez is a clown, which doesn´t measure up to Fidel or even his brother Raul. No way he can fill Fidel´s shoes. He is an Aristide with oil. If it wasn´t because of the oil he wouldn´t be there.

Doctor T you're wrong

Ask all the Cubans that have risked their lives to get to Florida on makeshift rafts.... they did that because they were desperate and found out that the truth ... that the socialist dream was a lie It is really a totalitarian nightmare....
Free medical care? Please go see what free medical care looks like for the average Cuban citizen at
http://www.therealcuba.com/Page10.htmt

Chavez cannot even manage his own country, much less a 2nd one. Friends just returned, and there is _no_ chicken, eggs, milk, etc to even be found in Caracas our surrounding areas. His lust to micromanage even the prices of staples have caused producers to stop producing where they cannot do so while making a living. Many are simply exporting into Columbia. Oil is at the highest price in history, and a country whose principal export is petroleum is starving. So much for leadership

Assassinate CHAVEZ!

First of all, it's premature to declare Fidel "gone." He may be ill and he may have resigned, but he has not vanished. We on the outside have consistently underestimated his charisma and influence over the Cuban people. There are a good many Castro reforms and innovations that will not be done away with any time soon. The likelihood of Cuba becoming the 51st State is slim. Nostalgia for the good-old Batista days lives on mainly in Coral Gables and not in Havana. Chavez is already very large on the scene in Cuba along with a number of European interests who are invested in Cuba's tourism. The US's best strategy in the immediate future would be to eliminate the embargo and flight restrictions, normalize trade and diplomatic relations, and let things settle themselves, but the Miami lobby is like a mini-AIPAC, sure to push for a more militant response.

Hi-
The question is a typical imperialist fantasy. The Cubans have free medical care and are well educated. Why would they want to work for nothing and join the US? It is more likely that there will be an American push to compromise the sovereignty of the island, which Chavez has a good chance of heading off at the pass. At long as oil is so costly, Chavez will be able to tip[ the balance against the US disinformation effort.

The article fails to include one of the most prominent influences in the Caribbean; China. With increased assets within the Caribbean and more political and commercial ties being constantly forged, China will also be one of the main contenders including America and Venezuela. Close by Jamaica has ties with China, sending students and encouraging Chinese business men to spend in their country, especially its burgeoning coffee sector. Because of China's current influence in the Caribbean, America and Venezuela won't be the only large countries putting in a bid for influence in post-Castro Cuba.