Given the complex nature of Iran’s power structure, this question is always worth asking. But it is not at all clear that the answer is particularly helpful in explaining the seizure of the British sailors nor the difficulty in obtaining their release. Governments, especially obstreperous ones that are not all that happy with their country’s status in the world, often behave in this way. You don’t need to solve mysteries about decision-making systems to see that.

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The moment when people start saying that a country is “doomed to decline” is generally a good time to buy its stock – or, at least, to become optimistic. France is certainly not doomed to decline. And the fact that after the first round of voting the country looks most likely to choose Nicolas Sarkozy as its next president is pretty good evidence for that proposition.

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