I agree with David Ignatius’ conclusion in his latest column that “…changing Pakistan is a job for Pakistanis, and history suggests that the more we meddle, the more likely we are to get things wrong.” In the Muslim world, it is history that shapes people’s perceptions of political situations. Unlike people in the West, who view emerging political scenarios through prisms of economics and of self-interest, Muslims and Arabs turn to history for explanations of western conspiracy in every situation they face.
The West thinks many of these events lie in the dust of history: the crusades, the loss of Andalusia, European colonial rule, the destruction of the Ottoman Caliphate, the debacle of Palestine, and the willy-nilly interference and changing of Muslim leaders. But these wounds are very much open and hurting in the Muslim world.
This is why when America goes east, Muslims go west. Recent U.S. military ventures into Afghanistan, Iraq, and indirectly into Somalia, and the larger war against terror, are all seen by the majority of the Muslim populace as the continuation of a war to dominate and subjugate the Muslim world.
It is therefore not incidental that President Musharraf of Pakistan, Hamid Karazi of Afghanistan, Al Maliki of Iraq and Abdillahi Yusuf of Somalia all remind their people of the disasters of Western-supported regimes of the past: Iraqi King Faisal and Nuri Said, American-groomed Baathist regimes, and the Shah of Iran.
The best scenario Washington can adopt in Pakistan is to let things sort themselves out. The less the U.S. interferes, the more comfortable Pakistanis will feel about their future.
Most Pakistanis’ hostility towards Musharraf is rooted in his support for Bush’s efforts to topple the Taliban. Any U.S. interference in Pakistani affairs at this critical juncture of their history will be unwelcome.
Supporting Benazir Bhutto and the masses protesting against Musharraf’s totalitarian rule won’t help things, either. American support for future leaders of Pakistan should be in line with the Pakistani people’s choice, even if Islamists win the upcoming elections. As developments in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia have proven, America has lost many hearts and minds in its war against terror. If the U.S. wants any future Pakistani leader to earn a measure of legitimacy, it must adopt a hands-off policy there. That’s also the only way to return some credibility to the tarnished American values of democracy and freedom.
Even Pakistan’s die-hard anti-Islamist politicians, who once saw America as a savior, would understand the Bush Administration’s desertion of Musharraf. They might think the General has dug his own grave by putting too much faith in America, against the strong anti-American sentiments of his people.
If America handles Pakistan wisely, its actions may also have lasting repercussions on other hot spots in the Muslim world - particularly Somalia, where an Ethiopian-supported occupation is nearing collapse. That collapse could herald a period of chaos and instability for the entire Horn of Africa.
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