Somalia/UAE - Ruth Shanor, an octogenarian American friend of mine who observes the world from her little home in Cowpens, South Carolina, and reads my Postglobal pieces, wrote to me after learning about the release of the Baker-Hamilton report on Iraq:
Dear Bashir, I have a whistling tea kettle. When I want a cup of tea I put the kettle on the back burner of the stove. I continue with other chores in the kitchen. Usually I completely forget that the temperature is rising in the tea kettle and the water is on the verge of breaking into a full boil. When the silence is finally blasted by an ear-splitting, shrill whistle, it scares me to death. There is no way to ignore the alarm. A call to action! Looks like wiser heads in America are finally screaming that the kettle is about to explode. Your part of the world keeps throwing sticks on the fire also, doesn't it? When will we have that cup of tea?
An apt analysis indeed. But instead of giving us the recipe for preparing the tea, the Baker-Hamilton report advises the Bush Administration to flee the explosion. The recommendation of engaging Iran and Syria to help solve the Iraqi debacle seems a pragmatic, long-overdue measure. However, looking at the overall defeatist tone of the report, one may conclude that America now turns to Iran and Syria to serve as a lifeboat for the Bush administration. It will then pass along the ticking bomb to Iran and Syria, who it now accuses of fueling the fire. It is their turn to burn.
The Report describes the Iraqi situation as daunting, points out that Bush's stay-the-course policy was not working, calls for a pull out of American combat troops by early 2008, demands Iran and Iraq be involved in finding a solution, and links the age-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the deteriorating situation of Iraq. This clearly spells out defeat for the Bush administration and a resounding victory for Al Qaeda and the other extremists in the region. One thing the report didn't mention, however, is that the decision to launch the war on Iraq was the wrong one. But that would have been tantamount to putting Bush in the dock, calling for his impeachment.
If America flees the battlefield, Al Qaeda will be gloating on their favorite TV channel Al Jazeera.
Calling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict the core issue of the Middle East problem and linking it to the pacification of the situation in Iraq is a deft way of shifting the focus from the failure in Iraq and winning back the trust of the American-allied Sunni countries which have been alarmed by the growing influence of the Iranian-backed Shiite groups in the region.
I am sure that many people in the region will agree that the stay-the-course policy of the Bush administration was suicidal and the Report was right to advise a change of policy, but running away from the exploding kettle will not only engulf the whole region in unprecedented sectarian wars and chaos but will also signal an end to any future American influence in the region. The Islamic extremists and Al Qaeda sympathizers will emerge as the winners, thus bringing their dream of an Islamic caliphates closer to reality. Emboldened by the American defeat in Iraq, they will flock to other places like Somalia where the Islamists there are raising the mantra of Jihad against the deployment of UN-backed African peace keeping forces. The only consolation for America will be that the emerging Islamic caliphates will not be homogeneous both in ideology and objectives and they will be annihilating themselves on sectarian basis, thus shifting the extremists war away from American and Western soil to a Muslim-Muslim fratricide fought in Arab streets like what we see in Iraq today.
Therefore, I add a few recommendations that may make the Baker-Hamilton Report more appealing to the disgruntled Iraqi Sunni, so that it is veiwed no longer as simply an exit strategy for the Bush administration. The Report is a bitter pill to swallow for the Bush administration to swallow. A few more pills won't do any harm. Bush should press the Iraqi government to call the old Iraqi army back to service and to open a serious dialogue with the leadership of the disgraced Baathist party. A release of Saddam Hussein, giving him an exile in Venezuala, Cuba, Zimbabwe, or North Korea may also help to calm down the Iraqi Sunnis who feel humiliated every day by the way their former leader is being treated. It will also show Bush's atonement for waging a domestically unpopular and internationally unjust war on the basis of liesand deceit.
The Bush Administration should also call a tribal conference in Iraq, similar to the Jirga of Afghanistan. In it, tribal leaders and militia commanders represent every tribe and ethnic group in the country and talk to each other. As America's democracy has only brought a vengeful majority to power in Iraq, resorting to the traditional Arab way of resolving problems and sharing power may reassure the Iraqi people that their fate is in their hands. This, in the end, might expedite the exit of the beleaguered Bush administration.
The writer has responded to numerous reader comments below.
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