Somalia/United Arab Emirates - With the cessation of hostilities and the deployment of the Lebanese army to the south, the role of Hezbollah has been greatly diminished. The future of the group, however, hinges not on its arms, but on its capacity to use aid to win the hearts and minds of the Lebanese people.
Anti-Hezbollah voices, which had been quiet during the war, have started criticizing the group for plunging Lebanon into a destructive war without a national consensus. Waleed Jumublat and Saad Hariri of the anti-Syrian camp have already fired salvos against both Hezbollah and Syria. The press of the Egyptian and GCC states has also come out in force against the Syrian President's speech in which he tacitly accused U.S-allied Arab countries of siding with the enemy.
Hezbollah claims it is now a fight for the spoils of victory. The U.S. allies portray this as the moment of accountability, the time to place the blame where it belongs. In both cases, it is obvious that an Arab debate has started in earnest over how to formulate a post-war strategy that could bring peace and stability to Lebanon and the Middle East.
With Hezbollah giving away huge amounts of cash and promising to rebuild all the houses destroyed during the war, the real race should not be who or how to disarm Hezbollah but who will be the first to win the hearts and minds of the Lebanese people by helping them to rebuild their shattered homes and lives. As I have predicted in an earlier posting, I think Hezbollah has already made headway in this race. Alarmed by this, the White House has urged speedy aid to Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah taking advantage of the situation. The real victory of the war could be the won through aid.
Any effort to force Hezbollah to disarm will not only revive the now receding popularity of Hezbollah but will again inflame the feelings of Muslims against America. It will also cause a more destructive and ruthless civil war in Lebanon. This will also harm the role of U.S.-Arab allies who have the chance now to use their economic muscle to rebuild Lebanon and reduce the post-war Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon. Looking at the bad record of the blue helmets, I don't think declaring Hassan Nasrallah a fugitive would cause results any better than that of Aideed in Somalia or Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic of Serbia.
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