Somalia/United Arab Emirates - In the Arab psyche, every defeat is converted into a victory. Hezbollah is already seen as victorious, having achieved what regular Arab armies could not in more than fifty years of war with Israel.
Mindful of the consequence of such thinking, Waleed Jumbulat, doyen of Lebanon's anti-Syrian March 14 Group, has asked to whom Hezbollah would dedicate its victory.
No doubt Hezbollah is militarily weakened. No doubt the UN resolution and the deployment of the Lebanese Army to the south would make it toothless. But basking in its newfound popularity and in the money and the logistics provided by Iran and Syria respectively, the group can be quicker than the government and the international community in extending humanitarian assistance to thousands of displaced people. By helping to rebuild citizens' lives, Hezbollah secures itself a dominant role in the future of Lebanese politics.
Hezbollah's revival as a military force, however, will depend on the survival of the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah nexus. Syria could, therefore, change the whole game in the Middle East by either breaking away from Iran and returning to its Arab fold or, with Arab and American support, undergoing regime change.
This will deprive Hezbollah of an important conduit for Iranian assistance and will bring about a Sunni government in Syria which could help stabilize Iraq and limit the influence of Iran in the region.
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