The first new element in Arab politics that the West has to take note of is the clear and concerted message sent by the Arab Sunni states of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt who accused Hezbollah of adventurism and moving the region into an unnecessary war. This was a surprise wakeup call for the Arab and Muslim masses that grew up blaming Israel for every war and every calamity that beset the Middle East region. It was an hour of confusion for the government controlled Arab media which had to negotiate between playing its traditional role of echoing the official line and reflecting the growing anger of the masses against Israel and the west.

By uttering the B-word or blame for the first time against an Arab party fighting against Israel, the governments of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt have made Arab political analysts and commentators sit back and take notice of the developing new realities.

With Iran emerging as the only nuclear power in the region, the Shiites taking power in Iraq for the first time in the history of hitherto minority Sunni dominated country, Hezbollah positioning itself as the only power broker in Lebanon, and radical Muslim movements winning elections in Egypt, Palestine and even Kuwait, the Israeli-Hezbollah war seems to have come as an opportunity for Arab moderate states to reclaim their traditional leadership in the region and restore their cozy ties with the U.S. administration which has irked its staunch friends lately by its persistent advocacy for democratic changes and its heavy political investment in the Iranian-backed Shiites of Iraq.

No matter how the Israeli-Hezbollah war ends, it seems clear now with whom the U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rice will be keen to meet when she starts her difficult mission to broker a cease fire in the Middle East. It may also ring a new era of realpolitik for Washington where Secretary Rice will be forced to refrain from any mention of democratic changes in the Middle East and tone down her rhetoric against hardline Islamic groups.

Apart from the position of the moderate Arab states, it is obvious that radical Muslims may still see the Lebanon war as a continuation of the Arab-Israeli conflict and given to what they envision as an unwavering Western support for Israel's destruction of Lebanon, many of them may regard it as a further escalation of the western war against Islam. Apart from how the extremist groups like Al Qaeda would play into the scenario, the Hezbollah resistance may embolden other Islamist vanguards in Iraq and Afghanistan and as far as Sudan and Somalia.