We are often asked to give a timetable for this scenario to unfold. The early signs of an end to the downturn will be in late summer, and by the third quarter of this year we will see the first signs of consumer confidence being restored. Of course some sectors, like banks and the auto industry will be hardest hit into the latter part of next year; let's hope their CEOs have sturdy seat belts. But at the end of the day it's the base of the economy, the consumer, who will make a difference. Most people forget that.

Recently I received an email: "We regret to inform you that due to the economic crisis and as a measure of cost savings, the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off." I reflected upon that, because in truth the banking system has committed mass suicide of an unprecedented magnitude, exposing the fragility of free enterprise to wanton greed. The manner in which the crisis is being handled is not at all elegant and, I am afraid, too forgiving to the bankers on Wall Street who caused this catastrophe in the first place. Deregulation of the markets was based on the fundamental proviso that bankers will be responsible, something they clearly were not when they lending people more money then they could afford and running up a leverage close to 12 times the capital in the banking system. Leverage works great when you are enjoying its benefits, but the noose can tighten quickly when things turn bad.

The bright spots that we can expect are largely dependent upon the solutions we seek. Today's choices aren't so great. President Obama is more reluctant to give handouts to bankers who helped themselves to an $18 billion combined bonus in 2008, and he seems on track with a stimulus package that creates jobs and could help restore confidence. In my own rough calculations; assume the U.S. population is 283 million and the stimulus package is US$890 billion. If the stimulus package was to give every US citizen $3.14 million as a direct credit, while it might be a simplistic solution this is what will happen. The first thing the recipient will do is pay off his Debt, the second he will buy a home, third he will buy a new truck, and then he will spend on consumer products and leave about 30% in his savings. The mortgage market would return to solvency, new home sales would go up and the auto industry would not have to go begging to Congress in their corporate jets.

I am told that such a suggestion is frivolous and foolish; no surprise, it's mostly my former banker friends who tell me this. They ask, what would happen to the existing huge inter-bank debt and corporate debt? Simple, I respond: the tax payer didn't over-leverage that part of the balance sheet, so let the banks deal with it. Not all banks were wantonly wild in this orgy of irresponsibility and there are a number of banks who seem to be coming out less battered than others.

My suggestions will never make it to Congress, of course. I do not have a Lear Jet to get there - and as a Pakistani, I wonder if Homeland Security would still want to talk to me for the one odd hour that they did each of the six times last year I visited the U.S.