The Current Discussion: Will Pakistan be better or worse off after Musharraf?
I would like to think, as a Pakistani, that the future of a nation cannot rest on the fortunes or misfortunes of one man. Indeed in the history of Pakistan there have been a number of men who have been quite instrumental in the course of the nation, and while they have passed away or been removed from office, the country has continued its journey. General Musharraf does come across as perhaps one former leader who will evoke strong emotions from all sides. As a secular thinker in Pakistan, supporting the U.S. in its war on terrorism and acting with disdain towards key aspects of the country's constitutional law, the General was always walking a tight rope. Ironically after publishing his memories he seemed to have become arrogant, and perhaps thought of himself as infallible.
Whether Pakistan will be better or worse off is all a matter of how the various actors in this political drama play their roles. My faith in the political process and political maturity is not greater than the confidence I would have in a class of eighth-graders managing the nation, with a likely chance the eighth graders might actually do better. This is not to say I support military dictators. On the contrary, I think they create a contrast which begs the question, why don't the politicians sort the mess out? But then considering none of the political parties in Pakistan have ever held an internal election to elect their own party leaders makes one wonder whether it does make a difference if the dictator running the country comes from the power of the ballot box or the barrel of gun. My gut reaction is the ballot box is still better, even though democracy will stumble a few times more before people will realize that the quality of the nation's policies are directly proportional to the quality of the leadership they choose.
Having said this, my guess is that the U.S. will continue to pressure Pakistan on the terrorist issues, but the civilian government may handle this in a better way then General Musharraf did, perhaps by even involving the tribal chiefs to sort out the mess in the tribal areas. The bigger challenge will be whether figures like Zardari have the political intellect and leadership to deal with the threats in the North-West Frontier Province and Baluchistan where effectively fundamentalist Taliban-style parallel administrations have been set up.
I also believe that while the Pakistan Peoples Party has delivered half the promise to its coalition partners by removing the President, or forcing him to resign, restoring the Judges will be difficult. The Judges dismissed by Musharraf were also opposed to the provisional order passed by the General that gave amnesty to Zardari and his late wife Benazir Bhutto on corruption charges. Not only did the order give amnesty but also prevents any future prosecution on the same charges. If the Judges are restored they will annul the provisional order of Musharraf, causing a crisis within the government.
All said and done I think this government will last for perhaps another six months and then a collapse of the government will mean a re-election. If indeed Zardari is President, as some speculate he might be, his influence on the election will be marginal. One must not forget the Army will always be in the wings to watch how the government is conducting itself.
Over all I do believe Pakistan is in for some trying times and this is where a true coalition government will work with accountability and good governance.
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