The Current Discussion: The Olympics open in two weeks, and offer a perfect platform for anti-government protests by ethnic minorities and dissident groups. Who's likely to protest and how should Beijing respond?
Politicizing sports is not new, especially when it comes to the Olympics. The first modern-day Olympics to be boycotted on political grounds was the 1956 Olympics, with about eight countries boycotting on account of both the Suez Canal Crisis and the Soviet repression of the Hungarian uprising. Since then the 1972, 1976, 1980 and 1984 Olympics have all had boycotts varying in size and covering countries ranging from throughout the world. Thus to argue that politics and sports are two different subjects is contrary to what has been happening for over 50-odd years of Olympic history. China is an interesting case as the host of the Olympics, as it has a history of boycotts over Taiwan's participation under the Republic of China flag.
From China's point of view the staging of the Olympics is very special as in the modern format of the games this is China's first opportunity to be a host. It also will be, undoubtedly, a perfect setting for a number of platforms of protest to marshal themselves to Beijing. The most obvious protest would come from the Free Tibet movement, which rightly wants China to change its policy on the continued occupation and assimilation of Tibet. Other issues of protest might include those who oppose globalization, China's human rights policy, and the many who feel China's industrial machine is a major contributor to global warming.
The Tibet issue will be the most potent and perhaps the most embarrassing to the Chinese. While China will presumably have started a crackdown on the pro-democracy supporters within the country well before the opening ceremony of the Games, it will find it considerably more difficult to deal with the thousands of visitors to China who might well also be a good number of likely protesters. Will China risk using its heavy-handed tactics against European or American citizens who might protest during the games? This is a litmus test of what the Chinese will do and of how other governments will react. A great deal of this will depend on the intensity of the protests and the way the media manages to report them. I suspect the Chinese will ensure that media is well muzzled, yet on this scale of the Games that might be a difficult task to achieve.
On the other hand, the Chinese may just find that their lack of humor on the issue of protests might just be the deterrent that will work against U.S. and European citizens who would find the prospect of being detained in a Chinese prison an uncomfortable possibility. While mass protests might be unlikely, there is a high possibility that sporadic shows of dissent will be visible throughout the Games. For China restraint will be best advised; for the international community, a resolve to deal with China should it get repressive in character with its past performance. The truth will unveil itself with the first firecracker of the opening of the Games.
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