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The Current Discussion: Will Pakistan be better or worse off after Musharraf?
A forecast of Pakistan's political future can be best framed in the memorable words of former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: It is a mix of "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns," this being a predictable pattern ever since the inception of Pakistan.
The Current Discussion: With President Zardari forced to reverse his bans on political opponents, is Pakistan on the brink or is this a positive sign? What, if anything, can the West do to help maintain stability and democracy?
The true test of democracy is the action of a government responding positively to the will of the people. Alas, there are heavy and visible liens on Pakistan’s democratic credentials in a sub-prime political mess: rough tribal relations, the heavy fist of armed forces that moonlight as business enterprises, a shadow “deep state” of intelligence services that deem themselves above the law but tangle with inexplicable support for shadowy figures, drug lords, and extremism of the al-Qaeda and Taliban variety. This kind of nuclear sub-prime case is prime for a meltdown-- outside NPT and IAEA supervision. It can easily turn to a scary monster, as it has many embedded sympathizers. Planners and observers from 5 and 10 time zones away in London and Washington think they have implemented a de facto atomic disarmament in Pakistan by compelling the army to distribute various components of Pakistan’s atomic bomb amongst diverse tribal and regional command groups. But it is time to rethink this simplified summary. The seasonal itch in Pakistan has led to hosting al-Qaeda operatives, generating inexplicable elements to bomb Indian hotels and railway, or acting as a conduit for sale of illegal drugs valued higher than Iraq’s oil exports.
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