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Tehran, Iran -- In looking away from the Hungarian uprising in 1956, the United States honoured the commitment it made to the USSR at the Yalta Conference and paved the way for detente, realpolitik and periodic dialogue. In hindsight, these alternatives achieved long-term objectives, winning the peace without starting yet another war.
Tehran, Iran -- The G8 must show that it is in touch and relevant. The group has risen above two world wars and has been ideologically united against conflict over the last 100 years. Such unity is now necessary to engage festering issues. Transparency, an even hand and (financial) muscle, are needed.
Tehran, Iran - First, accept "political Islam" as a reality in the region. Second, create a supreme international arbitration panel and call for an immediate ceasefire.
Tehran, Iran - The break-up of Iraq will cause regional conflicts and will lead to a massive devaluation of America's political capital as a superpower. It would be a spectacular failure that must be avoided.
Tehran, Iran - Cuba may prove to be the trophy prize of Latin America. Washington wants to reverse the spread of populism and socialism in Latin America. Champions of the movement like Chavez meanwhile prepare for another victory in Cuba. To change the island's future, the U.S. must meaningfully engage it.
Tehran, Iran - The United States' excessive spending in the Mideast and fiscal recklessness has led to a massive debt. This worries Asian countries that supply the U.S. goods. Like Bashir says, China might escape the consequences of this shifting U.S. demand for goods, but the impact on more fragile economies in the region will be significant.
Tehran, Iran - I have spent more than five hours today searching Google and world newspapers for articles about the Iran nuclear deal. Thanks to modern technology, I found more than 2100 headlines-- and that is just in English! What amazes me is not Google's search technology, but rather the hype and impatience around the discussion. Diplomacy and negotiations have been rudely overtaken by spin and imagination.
Tehran, Iran - Democratic nations often congratulate themselves by claiming that their policies are the product of national consensus. It boggles the mind then that Americans are the only ones in the world who aren't sure of their own economic and military might. They are only too ready to prove their disconnection from the rest of the world. It reminds me of Fyodor Dostoevsky and Franz Kafka's story characters that were unhappy with their self-crafted identities.
Tehran, Iran -- America must understand Iraq before advocating devolution. No plan will succeed if it ignores Iraq's economic problems. 50% are jobless. With many more in exile, the dignity of its people must be restored.
Tehran, Iran- It seems that North Korea has taken its best shot with its nuclear program. It first opted out of NPT, then tested its 1960's vintage missile technology and it has now experimented with a crude nuclear device.
Tehran, Iran - Many forget that the American system is a republic and not a direct democracy. As we can read in The Washington Post every day, this system is subject to heavy influence by special-interest groups and lobbies, and fierce battles of polls and mathematical models can decide elections.
Tehran, Iran - This fascinating question to put to a panel of foreign commentators. Even though it is mostly a domestic matter in the United States, no part of the global village can be indifferent to the tectonic shift in Washington.
Tehran, Iran - All wars must end. The United States must face reality in Iraq and announce a scheduled withdrawal. This move must be accompanied by several others actions in order to achieve stability.
Tehran, Iran- Washington needs to think hard and change course. There are some signals that it's doing so, such as Vice President Cheney's "80 percent solution".
Tehran, Iran - I write from a tough neighborhood at the hub of it all. It seems that all political forces have ganged up to stop the local economy in Iran.
Europe’s opinion of the U.S. and Iran points to something profound. In their assessment, they compared countries on the basis of their principles. America's righteous, exclusive and intolerant posture contrasts with Iran's desire for fairness and justice.
About 11 days ago, 15 members of a foreign naval force in uniform, bearing arms and the British flag in service of Her Majesty’s Government, had trespassed into Iranian waters. Media hype ensued and a campaign of disinformation by the British government attempted to paint it as a UN peacekeeping mission. Nevertheless, these soldiers did not bear the UN flag or the internationally recognisable “Blue Helmets” insignia. In all, it was yet another round of media spin tricks: Eisenhower and his televised denials of violating Soviet airspace with an American U-2; Colin Powel and his satellite photos of mobile WMD labs in Iraq; George Bush and his facts on Iraqi purchase of uranium in Niger.
The situation in Iraq is not simply a matter of invasion without conquest, a failing puppet state. Iraq was already a minefield, and the invasion’s waltz of quickstep missions turned that minefield into a very complex disaster zone.
I trust Amar Bakshi plans to set aside a good few months to explore this fragile topic in Iran. He ought to study the matter intensely! As with other first-time visitors to Iran, he will return and reinterpret much of what the English language press has said about Iran.
The quick and simple answer to the question is plainly positive. The Romans didn’t have what America has today: military programs and cooperation with more than 110 countries around the globe, instant communication via satellite, the Internet (which brings this article to readers) and the attention of the world. American English is the Lingua Franca and the de facto medium for exchange of scientific and, increasingly, cultural information.
It is a tough time to be the President of the United States. Aside from America’s increasing international isolation, the domestic scene is full of urgent issues: reminders of Hurricane Katrina, crushing consumer debt, Wall Street’s adventures in sub-prime mortgages, record home foreclosures, and stagflation coupled with both denial and hype. The country’s largest mortgage lender just announced it would lay off 12,000 people following the release of disappointing national employment statistics.
Few subjects set off explosions of national rage in Turkey like the fate of one and a half million Armenians in the darkest days of the First World War. First, some background: Armenians insist they were victims of the first mass genocide of the 20th century, driven from their homes in eastern Anatolia; only a few hundred thousand made it to Syria and Mesopotamia, today's Iraq. Turks, while acknowledging that many Armenians died in 1915-17, have always denied the genocide, despite widely reported evidence of massacres.
We have to accept that we live in an era of intellectual rip-offs, tactics sold as policy and instant strategies broadcast live on TV. The show on the plastic box and talking-head spin-meisters will do the thinking and planning for us all. Accordingly, we lower expectations and shall not be surprised when we see childish games are sold as a mimic of statesmanship. His Excellency, the president of a superpower, is now demanding that the world forget what it knows and listen to his version of stories.
America and its economy are at a significant crossroads: uncontrolled asset inflation, massive consumer debt and a large budget deficit have converged on a structural fault line (not to mention the impact of its military endeavors and political isolation.) Baby boomer consumption is slower, a new generation is taking over and American demographics are moving toward a Hispanic majority within the next two decades.
The U.S. economy is also making up an ever-smaller proportion of world GDP, and that’s a trend we should get used to. The euro zone is now the world’s top economic producer (with a GDP of about $16.3 trillion), while China, India and the returning Russia are all enjoying fundamental growth.
Has any of this gone unnoticed by the rest of the world? No. But Americans carefully and intentionally avoid these fundamental issues as topics of conversation. American politicians and presidential candidates divert the debate to 9/11 (now six years ago), foreign policy, Iraq and the armed forces.
Dear Presidential Aspirant,
You have indeed picked an important moment in the history of your country. Oh, boy, have you ever! You are either incredibly motivated or extremely out of touch. I hope you are prepared to inherit a Japanese-style chronic recession after fifteen years of stealth asset inflation laced with hype and reckless short-sighted finance. Meanwhile, you will preside over a massive federal deficit that has left all IMF sermons on fiscal discipline in its rearview mirror. All international players, friends and foe alike, will awaken you to the fact that you find your country in a deep isolation. Demoralized taxpayers and their rapidly changing demographics will demand quick fixes and a relapse to yesteryears, the good times jazz age and massive fins on the back of their oversized cars. The foreign policy aspirations of your country might well have a whiff of USSR to them, all saddled with a global warming problem. Being president is a tough job and completely different from your occupation during the election campaign, which is about statistics and rapid reaction to instant polls.
The Current Discussion: Does the crisis on Wall Street mean that the American style of capitalism is no longer the model for the world?
The American money machine became lost in the woods after the Cold War. It embarked on a new path as a rogue and insubordinate creature, ignoring the need to prepare for a rainy day and the potential for a downturn. It was a rogue missile out of control; a pyramid scheme of debt, with financial institutions charging fees for every misguided layer they added until they lost sight of what was happening at the foundation: bad loans being issued to people who could not afford them.
The Current Discussion: Will the U.S. financial crisis lead to an erosion of U.S. influence comparable to the Iraq war?
Two major events can break a powerful person or enterprise, club or country: cancer or uncontrolled growth (that is to say, bad decisions or assets, poor management and lack of preventative medicine) or heart attack (i.e. lack of liquidity, a just-in-time supply of oxygen with blood). The financial crisis is a mix of these two diseases. It has already eroded America’s standing the world, even though counterparties and the other side of the transactions are the closest political and military allies or significant trading partners and investors-- EU, Japan, Brazil, China and most of OPEC (except Iran) and the savings, pension funds and share values of their people. Added damage to credibility is deemed toxic when banks, in the same country, are leery of lending overnight money to each other and where the second layer of most trusted investments-municipal bonds- is frozen.
The Current Discussion: What's the first thing you hope Barack Obama does as President-Elect?
Today will inevitably turn into a day of expectations, forward presumptions and various kinds of games, guesses and guarded spin. It will not be a surprise to read forecasts about the next election in 2012, even though Job Number One for the president-elect will be damage repair.
The election season is over and President Obama by now must have realized that the actual job is going to be much different from the campaign process and the stump speech tours. He will enter office in a very difficult and entangled set of circumstances on the domestic and international economic front. He is faced with the United States's tattered reputation on both political and military fronts abroad. There's also NATO festering in Bosnia, Ukraine's gas transit convulsions, the Middle East, India or South America. Simply, America's standing in the world is dilapidated and brittle.
The Current Discussion: Rate Obama's first performance on the international stage on a scale of 1-10, and tell us why you think so.
Mr. Obama ought to be assigned a grade of six out of ten for his smiling performance at the G-20 meeting in London. He proved he could keep his word and be a good listener. He appears to have taken up the challenge of being humble mechanic and accident supervisor after a massive road pileup with many (unsold) cars, trucks, unemployed bodies and goods are either bound for the scrap heap, intellectually challenged schemes, unemployment or trauma about complex insurance policies (the AIG and government guaranty varieties) or more sacrifices. It was in such atmosphere that Mr. Obama and 19 other leaders gathered to formulate an action plan, come up with at least 21 different opinions and ideas and a heap of other suggestions about the equivalent of installing seatbelts, airbags, anti-lock brakes and traffic signs on such road. Alas, they all gingerly avoided the other massive train wreck, the environment. Mother nature does not offer bailouts.
The Current Discussion: The U.S. will lift travel restrictions on Cuba, but leave the larger trade embargo in place. Is that a smart move? Does it go far enough? Too far?
If five phrases could summarize shallow thoughts and frame failed, self-defeating politics of the last fifty years, the term economic sanctions will be one of them— along with the wisdom of projecting raw military power, using nuclear weapons, declaring the end of history, and leaving financial markets to self-regulation. Simply put, economic sanctions are self-defeating in the Global Age. It has never worked when visibly practiced (against Cuba, USSR, Serbia or Iran), or when fudged and fabricated of threats and negative, hyper-subjective postures (China and India until 1990s, pro-socialist France and Italy in 1970s, or Iran and Zimbabwe these days). There is no record of capitulation by a sovereign state since the second World War just because America decided to ban its own people from doing business or have contact with that country.
The Current Discussion: Are Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama on a collision course over Iran and the Palestinian problem? What would be the consequences of a breach between the United States and Israel?
After the de facto defeat in Iraq, America seems to have reached an awakening long overdue: America’s national interests are fundamentally different from Israel's. The Zionist regime has confused America’s support (initially a humanitarian assistance program) with a silly perception of a right to occupy Washington or somehow game and dictate policy to the largest economy in the world. Alas, the game is up. These childish tactics are unsustainable and incompatible with national interests of America—despite Israeli hype, lobbies and calculated ill will of mislabeling of other religions as a political ideology.
The world’s concern, and China’s immediate focus, is about America’s financial discipline. Its effects will sketch America’s credibility and its economic health in the near and long-term. For China, it is a job of deciphering it all. China is especially worried about the value and potential devaluation of its vast holdings of American debt, which adds up to about 50% of Chinese GDP, as America is its largest export market. Is America going to stop printing dollars, or will she flood the markets with cash (with so-called Quantitative Easing methods) and thus devalue the dollar and diminish the hard, reserve currency?
Many are wondering if it is all a repeat performance of the British economy circa 1960s and 1970s-- when the Pound Sterling lost its sterling, politely became the British Pound and faded away as a reserve currency—after rounds of mass nationalizations (British Leyland Motors, British Airways, banks, IMF loans and the rest). The effect was the diminished role of Britain as a world power in an economic overheating, mindless asset inflation, high levels of debt and currency devaluation.
The Current Discussion: What did you think of Obama's speech in Cairo? What kind of change will, or won't, it bring?
The principle and offer of a new beginning by the American president is much welcomed, even if it is to repair damage and in apology for the Bush Era. However, one cannot help but recall an old Persian proverb that “two hundred speeches won’t sum up to half a deed”. Mr. Obama is a good orator. He communicates clearly as a master politician who wants to keep everyone happy. But it is time to show by tangible deeds and firm steps, and not be summarily dismissed as yet another speech of a novice president and his “I have a dream” speech of the Martin Luther King legacy.
During these first months, and as seen with America’s posture towards Cuba, his words have indicated little more than a mere rolling back of stated foreign policy goals to the Clinton era. A quick recall of Bill Clinton’s speeches delivered in the Muslim world in the1990s will leave the listener bemused that many passages were simply transliterated (with quotes from the Quran, the Bible and Torah.) The distinction is simply the delivery of rehashed words from a man presiding over a maxed-out bust on political, and financial, credit and short of return on political capital invested in places like Iraq (Clinton, for his part, rendered a post-Cold War tune in the tone of upbeat country music by a Sunday preacher).
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