The premise that ethnic strife in Iraq should necessitate foreign military intervention is an absurd presumption. A democratic political process cannot be delivered on the back of a foreign battle tank. Iraq, a country of more than a hundred tribal groups, does not have a history of violence amongst its ethnic groups. Like elsewhere in the Middle East, tribal loyalties in Iraq are strong. But the logic of presuming future civil war or internal commotion in Iraq is an unfortunate misreading that recalls Lebanon and Vietnam in the 1970s, where American readings of the situation in both countries visibly failed in its Samuel Huntington-based logic. It is also an absurd interpretation of Germany circa WWII. Few recall that Hitler was elected by Germans after a massive economic meltdown of the Weimar Republic. Vietnam was a battle of contrasts and ideologies between two superpowers, whereas the case of Lebanon was a classic version of foreign interventions in a much invaded land that served as a theater for foreign disputes.

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The Current Discussion: With President Zardari forced to reverse his bans on political opponents, is Pakistan on the brink or is this a positive sign? What, if anything, can the West do to help maintain stability and democracy?

The true test of democracy is the action of a government responding positively to the will of the people. Alas, there are heavy and visible liens on Pakistan’s democratic credentials in a sub-prime political mess: rough tribal relations, the heavy fist of armed forces that moonlight as business enterprises, a shadow “deep state” of intelligence services that deem themselves above the law but tangle with inexplicable support for shadowy figures, drug lords, and extremism of the al-Qaeda and Taliban variety. This kind of nuclear sub-prime case is prime for a meltdown-- outside NPT and IAEA supervision. It can easily turn to a scary monster, as it has many embedded sympathizers. Planners and observers from 5 and 10 time zones away in London and Washington think they have implemented a de facto atomic disarmament in Pakistan by compelling the army to distribute various components of Pakistan’s atomic bomb amongst diverse tribal and regional command groups. But it is time to rethink this simplified summary. The seasonal itch in Pakistan has led to hosting al-Qaeda operatives, generating inexplicable elements to bomb Indian hotels and railway, or acting as a conduit for sale of illegal drugs valued higher than Iraq’s oil exports.

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