Ali Ettefagh at PostGlobal

Ali Ettefagh

Tehran, Iran

Dr. Ali Ettefagh serves as a director of Highmore Global Corporation, an investment company in emerging markets of Eastern Europe, CIS, and the Middle East. He is the co-author of several books on trade conflict, resolution of international trade disputes, conflicts in letters of credit, trade-related banking transactions, sovereign debt, arbitration and dispute resolutions and publications specific to the oil and gas, communication, aviation and finance sectors. Dr. Ettefagh is a member of the executive committee and the board of directors of The Development Foundation, an advisor to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, and an advisor to a number of European companies. Dr. Ettefagh speaks Persian (Farsi), English, German, French, Spanish, Italian, Arabic and Turkish. Close.

Ali Ettefagh

Tehran, Iran

Dr. Ali Ettefagh serves as a director of Highmore Global Corporation, an investment company in emerging markets of Eastern Europe, CIS, and the Middle East. more »

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Cold War Lessons Not Learned

Georgia will serve as an overdue notice about learning lessons from the Cold War era, instead of replicating a cheap rerun of it.

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All Comments (30)

WeeFree:

Thank you for a full revelation opinion.

When it comes to power play on the international scene, is the US or Israel any morally different from Russia? NO!

double-d Dumb:

@TOM MILLER-

It is amazing that whenever you Americans come up short on logic in discussions, you turn to Iran as the cause of it all. Iran has no part of the Russia-Georgia problem, whether Georgia is a real, adult sovereign country or just a stooge of America and a hellraiser. And I am sure you have followed the news that Iran launched its own satellite yesterday, on an Iranian-built rocket!! LOL...LOL...LOL

The alliance of NATO must decide whether it is a military organisation or a political alliance. As for arming Iran, it seems that cannot be too bad of an idea, you Yanks armed Saddam to attack Iran and sanctioned Iran, but after 8 years Iranians won the battle and the real war (i.e. America's defeat in Iraq-without even being in that war!).

As for Authoritarian rule, I have not been able to find a big difference between America of today and Egypt or Saudi Arabia--the Russians are comparatively more transparent and mean what they say, say what they mean AND they have no Guantanamo or secret evidence trials, etc. as part of a pretention of being the leader of the free world, etc.... without pretentions that come out of USA.
The new "Homeland Security" department in USA country is essentially a copy of the old KGB, i.e. a ministry level national spying system.

Tom Miller1:

Retire NATO, arm Iran, and give all of the now former colonies of Russia struggling to be free back to the Soviet Union?

Thanks for clarifying your obvious esteem for authoritarian rule. These statements are the best example of exactly why NATO is more important today than ever.

I have no doubt that you would also like to arm Iran with nuclear weapons while you "make peace" in the Caucasus?

If Georgia is brought into NATO, Russia has only to thank itself.

pro-peace:

It is time to revoke the mock-sovereignity of Georgia and Ukraine and have direct rule from Moscow.
There is such veto provision set in favour of London in the Good Friday Agreement on Northern Ireland, and I think there should be a similar right for Moscow to stop petty little trouble makers like Georiga.

We need stability in the world, not small fry jokers like Saakashvili, Saddam, Karzai, Musharraf and the like.

reb:

The question should be how to contain American aggression and their seat-of-the-pants attack on Iraq and their failed plans to attack Iran and start a wave of sorts in the Middle East.

As for NATO, I agree with TT below that it lost its original purpose when the Warsaw Pact died. The new NATO is essentially a mirror image of the old Warsaw Pact with a collective wave of aggression....and they are failing badly. They can not even hold Afghanistan, let alone tell Russia and China and India...what to do. Time to retire NATO.

Sergey Shishlov:

In general I agree with the author of the article and would like to strengthen his line of arguments. First of all it is important to realize that if USA and E.U. continue their policy toward Russia based on the assumption that only they have the rights to determine what is right and what is wrong in the current World's affairs they should not get surprised very soon by counterattacks of the young Russian capitalists (not in sense of their age but in terms of how long they have been as such). The current Russian government is a group of very rich people, who certainly want to become even richer, and they are not any more communists. They have absolutely the same traits as any other capitalist in USA and E.U.: they desire to expand their business as much as possible by all means and meantime to cover it up by appropriate talking such as Democracy, Human Rights, and Faith to God and so on. Nowadays, when they have accumulated a lot of money due to favorable commodity price situation and having nuclear and imperial heritage it seems to them that it is time to change their position in the World's Market. And any attempts to restrict their increasing international activities will force them to use all available arsenals to protect their business interests around the World. And that does not make them to be different from any western counterparts. Now, in light of the current situation on Caucasus it looks like that USA and E.U. started threatening Russian government by "international isolation" and other painful sanctions and that is worse thing that might happen for international security considering the situation in the Middle East, and Central and South America where it is not so difficult for Russian to muster alliance against “Western Imperialism”. As soon as Western World understands that Russian “bad boys” are simple capitalists who just want fair business partnership the whole situation should become much more controllable and predictable. It is for the best interests of all nations to start changing old fashion mind set when some countries considered being always right and other countries, outside the prestige club, should always follow the guidelines provided by the “Civilized” World. At last but not at least: it is much easier to deal with Russian elite now than it was during Cold War era: they have the same capitalist ideology and if Western elite fails to comprehend that and allow irresponsible politics to reincarnate confrontation with Russia the consequences will be disastrous for all of us since there are so many problems which should be resolved as soon as possible together on this small fragile planet…

Tom Miller1:

Every aggression has its counterbalance and today Merkel of Germany is offering strong support to an accelerated entry of Georgia into NATO. It appears that the EU is not quit so sure that NATO is dead afterall. Is anyone surprised at all? :)

It's the right decision and the only check to another future invasion by Russia of a sovereign nation in the area. The two disputed territories were controlled by an outdated KGB/gangster connection and black market not unlike the new Putin state running Russia and undoubtably Russia will continue to "run" these areas with its self-proclaimed "peace army" but putting Georgia in NATO will protect the core Republic and encourage the other free and independent Caucasus states to be truly free and independent. What a novel idea!

Of course, there is the small problem of Russia agreeing to pull its troops back out of Georgia yesterday but still delaying. It will be interesting to see if they keep their word or like the Soviet Union before them make promises that aren't kept.

Did anyone else read or see reports as I have of the immense propaganda doled out to the Russian people during the invasion? The undocumented atrocities and genocide on the Putin controlled media made the Holocaust look like a picnic. Reports are already available that document the planning that has been in progress for months just waiting on the chance to invade Georgia.

If Georgia ends up in NATO, then Russia will have been responsible. A bear that gets greedy with the honey gets stung. :)

TT:

JEROME--

NATO is dead. It died when the Waraw Pact was dissolved. America is trying to keep it alive with artificial support and Europeans do not need NATO because they are not at odds with Russia. Europeans do not consider Russia as an enemy (like America does), just a tough neighbour and after millions of lives lost on both sides of Europe and Russia, they know very well how to sit down, talk and make a deal. From my point of view, the next European war and a kin of Hitler is sitting Washington these days and his name is Dick Cheney and his puppet George W. Impossible to have another one come out of Europe.

As for America and its leadership of NATO: look how they are losing, badly I might add, to a bunch of rag-tag irregulars in Afghanistan that are poorly equipped.

Jerome :

I almost fell out of my chair laughing at TT's understanding of NATO motives for not securing Georgian membership. Ever heard of appeasement? European countries are very good at it, and it seems that the tradition is still alive and well. It will be very interesting to see how far 'soft politics' gets Western European countries this time round. Please remind me, what happened the last time a revisionist European power started expanding?

Anonymous:

A good and clear article.

Hira Biswas:

America does not need another cold war; we have too many problems at home. Ron Paul shows the way. Internationally, our political leaders act like field marshalls. With huge trade/budget deficits and so many other problems, they should instead act like businessmen. We have lost a lot of grounds during the last 7 years; we need to move quickly to recover.

Georgian Farce:
TT:

Bravo OLEG and CITIZEN OF THE POST-AMERICAN WORLD.

People like this Tom Miller dude have a double standard that, they think, is beyond impeachment.

First is that Russia still controls energy resources of the Caspian, which by the way are very small amounts compared to the Persian Gulf. Just a single field in Iran, the recent joint venture of Iran and Japan, for example (the Azadegan Field) has more oil in place than all discoveries in Azerbaijan and the giant field of Karachaganak in Kazakhstan! And there are alt least 10 others of this size on offer from Iran for joint venture with whomever that wants it!!

Second, Russian companies are partners in consortia of all big fields of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. So, they are already in control, especially given the fact that the main CPC pipeline from Kazakhstan is over Russian soil to Novorossisk, then they already control it.

Third, at the NATO meeting in Bucharest last spring, Georgia was proposed as a new member by USA, but other members (Europeans) held back to wait and study it further. It is an organisation where all members must vote to accept a new member, as hard as that might be for you Americans to accept.
This means Europeans knew it was trouble. So, the Georgians attacked the Russians to hustle the world to accept them into NATO. From my point of view, level-headed NATO members in Europe have no need for snakeoil salemen or hustlers or used car salesmen. They want stable statesmen as partners.

Oleg:

There is nothing contrarian about this piece by Mr. Ettefagh. Just a very well-informed, insightful, theoretically elegant and well-worded analysis. A refreshing event in the midst of mindless, ill-informed, jingoistic and sadly moronic Russophobic hysteria dominating U.S. media lately.

Tom Miller1:

Poor unaggressive honest Russia. If only evil America would quit trying to make alliances with independent free countries, the kind little bear would be nice and cuddly and would never think of doing anyone any harm. :)

What a world we live in! Choose the side you hate and put your blinders on to the transgressions of your team even if it means misery and injustice for others. Is this world affairs or the Olympics?

Citizen of the post-American world:

Tom Miller1: "One international folly doesn't justify another. The Iraq invasion by the U.S. doesn't have anything to do with Russia bullying her former colonies. Every international action should stand on its own unless anyone can name a country that has never committed a folly."

The Iraq invasion (and other similar US interventions) have everything to do with Russia's actions. WE set international "standards" WE now have to live under... i.e. lies, deception and international banditry.

As for "international actions standing on their own", this means there needs to be a third party like the UN such actions can be referred to. Now as we all know, the US has done everything possible to make sure the UN became "irrelevant", including through unconditional and irrational support to Israel (US would veto anything and everything the international community would put forward condemning barbarian Israeli conduct). WE therefore have to live with that too. It being of our own making, we are fully responsible.

Tom Miller1:

One international folly doesn't justify another. The Iraq invasion by the U.S. doesn't have anything to do with Russia bullying her former colonies. Every international action should stand on its own unless anyone can name a country that has never committed a folly.

I believe that Russia's intention to control the energy sources of the Caucasus and thus, the politics not to mention the energy costs of the region and of Europe is clear. This was the first volley in that continuing effort that Russia is largely winning.

If Georgia HAD been a member of NATO it seems very unlikely that this scenario would ever have played out. Russia is brash and creates its own follies but isn't stupid. I bet this plan was not baked yesterday. :)

george klein:

To simplify ones understanding of it all ,two
different people can shed light on the who why
what and when .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbakN7SLdbk


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oARBdBtGenM&feature=related

John:

Hezbollah leader blames Israel for defeat of Georgia.

"The entire front line of the army's brass stepped down because of the war. Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost because of him," laughed Nasrallah.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3582864,00.html

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3580136,00.html

Nasrallah is right. Israel has been meddeling in Georgia. Its policies and tactics failed in Lebanon and now they have failed in Georgia. America lost Georgia because of Israeli military failures.

Hezbollah leader mocks Israeli political, military leadership: 'Gal Hirsch was defeated in Lebanon, and now lost the war for Georgia'

"Relying on Israeli experts and weapons, Georgia learned why the Israeli generals failed," proclaimed Nasrallah, "what happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking to entangle in dangerous adventures."

Georgian Minister Timor Yaqobshvili says "Israel sold us out"

read this!:

McCain's chief foreign policy advisor, Randy Scheunemann, has until recently worn two hats, acting as McCain's lead foreign policy man and also as a lobbyist for Georgia. Filings by the McCain campaign and reports to the US Department of Commerce show that between January 1, 2007 and May 15, 2008 the McCain campaign paid Scheunemann nearly $70,000 and, across the same period, the government of Georgia paid Scheunemann's firm, Orion Strategies, $290,000 in lobbying fees.

Read:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/45131,opinion,georgias-loss-is-john-mccains-gain

Graeme:

Well observed. Russia is showing that it is fed up with being bullied.

@TOM MILLER
It is obvious to the rest of world that some one gave the green light to the president of a tin pot 4 million people to stick a needle in the eye of a superpower. All of that because of American one-size-fits-all foreign "policy".

555:

In Moscow today, Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian general staff, said that a newly-signed missile defense deal between the U.S. and Poland "cannot go unpunished," the Associated Press reported. He did not elaborate.

5 Star General:

I agree with your assessments. There seems to be an itch to fall back on Cold War mentalities.

America has been doing a good job of keeping itself isolated by its own actions and this Georgian episode will define the limits and show whether the last 2 decades has been an overall clever plan, or plainly short-sighted and stupid.

TT:

Excellent analysis.
I fully agree with you that this will be the stress test and turning point for American Cold Warrior mentality, although it will serve as excellent campaign material for Sen. McCain for his election campaign.

The missile shield program has upset the Russians and they saw another kind of old, rusty "containment" brew on their borders.

Manish :

I think the author makes some valid point. The way the United States has conducted itself during the eight years of Bush's reign is a hundred times more disturbing than what Russia did. Bush has been more dangerous to the cause of democracy than all the tin-pot dictators around the world combined.

Russia merely did what any self-respecting nuclear power will do if provoked by a pesky neighbor--teach the latter a lesson so profound that it would never dream of getting back to its tricks again.

Indeed, wasn't it naive for the 'world community' to believe that Russia, which had once been one of the world's two mightiest countries, would calmly go on accepting its reduced importance?

In any case, the era of the United States as world's unchallenged military superpower has come to a close. The thing is that that happened faster than most expected.

Americans are going to have to live with a diminished role for them in the world. In some sense, they already are. Venezuela has more clout in South America than the U.S has at this point and the Americans don't seem to know what to do about that. Iran is asserting itself, and the US doesn't seem to have the stomach for another war in the Middle East.

China, well, that's another story.

And now Russia. No. All this is too much for the Americans' plate. They ought to stick with the home front. Get those 45 million people insured for heavens sake, before embarking on another round of policing the world.

tom Miller1:

Mr. Ettefagh, would you please find a new personal derogatory term to put down the U.S. than "McDonaldization"? It's certainly not insulting as you intend and when it's used multiple times in a single diatribe from you it's downright embarrassing that you are probably paid to make these trite comments. Geez, did you eat a bad Big Mac once or what is your problem?

I think the main problem in the world today is lack of responsibility in that world that likes to sit on the sideline, play to the local population, and carp about the so-called super powers. It's convenient for the politicians and journalists in these countries (job security) but it doesn't solve world problems and never will.

Little in this post is worth the finger effort.

Adam:

Could you be more cryptic and enigmatic please, your thoughts are just too simple.

Methinks you know not of what you speak.

You have completely given short shrift to the fact that Russia forcibly removed Georgians from Abkhazia in the early 90s. You also neglect to mention how Russia is achieving this land grab of South Ossetia. The excuse that these are Russian citizens just because they were issued passports and citizenship is Ludicrous. Then let's see the United States take over Mexico in the same manner.

I was there, I saw the refugees.

There are too many factual holes in what you're talking about and it's so poorly written that I can't believe it is actually posted.

Please, people, check your facts. Please, writer of this piece of propoganda, get an editor. This is shameful.

Fariborz Shamshiri:

I like the idea of everything is about oil but not this time. If you look at the events that has been going on in the region, you will find more evidence that Russia - Gorgia war is not about oil.

Well Mr. Ettefagh, I somehow like your analysis although it is kinda hypocrisy when we claim "The world has changed beyond recognition" but still our own country Iran, resides to same old Islamic barbaric way of life for it's own people and some that you know them well could fill their British virgin island accounts full of petrol money!

Here is my weblog, Rotten Gods
http://www.rottengods.com/

Citizen of the post-American world:

Sir, "a contrarian" you are, which is why I so much enjoy reading what you think on most issues discussed here.

As you say, "the world has changed beyond recognition," something too few people seem to take into account, at PG. There are indeed days when, judging by most readers' reactions to what is happening on the international scene, it feels just like it did decades ago.

Could it be that too many having come to believe in "The End of History" (Fukuyama), all they can possibly imagine doing while waiting for Armageddon is, as you put it, "to replicate a cheap rerun" of something they are familiar with, e.g. "the Cold War"?

Can we not see how dearly such a lack of imagination has already cost us?

Need it cost us so much more?

K:

Interesting point of view. I would tend to side with it.

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