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The Current Discussion: Vice President Dick Cheney said last week that Hamas is doing all it can to torpedo the Mideast peace process -- but Ephraim Halevy, former head of Mossad, thinks it's time to include the Islamist group in peace talks. Who's right?
The question leads to an obvious answer and a few observations to ponder upon. Is it possible to exclude a political party that won a majority in the last election of Palestinians?
The situation in Zimbabwe is not a new development. It is a festering matter put on the low or no priority list of international debate. The actions of the President Mugabe are a mere repeat of playbooks of strongmen in the same league -- Pakistan under President Musharraf, Serbia run by Mr. Milosevic, and the early days of the Ugandan Idi Amin come to mind.
Most powerful countries have tried to encourage change on the cheap. This exercise to isolate Zimbabwe has produced talk and hollow posturing, but hardly any tangible help for ordinary people there. The economic implosion of Zimbabwe -- once known for its humming agricultural and mining sectors, a respectable education system, and hard working people -- is the net product of disengagement. For the time being, local institutions are in the spotlight to see if the intended functions and independence of state bodies are effective. Election commissions, demands for recount, and courts are running the course.
Inflation is another word for reduced purchasing power. Three elements can fuel a spiral. Increases in the cost of raw materials lead to higher prices of final products. Higher prices put pressure on wages to go up so workers can pay for what they buy -- which increases the costs of production and again leads to higher prices. Finally, as prices increase, more capital is needed to produce the same item, which also increases the cost of production and leads to higher prices -- particularly if interest rates go up at the same time.
Current imbalances ought not to be shocking or unexpected. Asset prices and raw materials have shot up, but wages and incomes remained stagnate, and we were told that all is rosy as growth is a one-way and upward trajectory with joy, and debt, for all. I raised this issue back in January, 2007 .
For the time being, there are low stocks, but not acute shortages of, food-- assuming the consumer can afford to pay. Cows are still producing the same amount of milk as two years ago, but it is more expensive to feed the cow and process, package and transport the milk. The excuse of increased demand from China and India is a tall tale. They both have vivid memories of food shortages in the 1950s and 1960s, which was overcome domestically by Chinese and Indians despite political isolation.
The easy days are behind us and the era of a tough climb up the proverbial hill of beans is ahead. Civil commotion about food prices are essentially about low incomes and reduced purchasing power. And these are not limited to developing countries. Soaring home foreclosures and depleted savings in US, a 25 percent jump in British use of credit cards for food purchases since December, and stagnate property prices in Japan are all telling signs of the same story. Blaming oil exporters for high oil prices is a worthless diversion too -- the governments of importing countries raise more cash from fuel and excise taxes (especially in Europe and Japan) than the sum paid to the original exporter of crude oil.
Iranian consumers are not different, as all juggle inflation and low incomes. Like Russians, Turks and others in Eastern Europe, pensioners and retired people here are especially squeezed by reduced purchasing power. Economic pains of transformation, from a state-planned system to a market-managed economy, are expected to repeat events seen elsewhere.
The Current Discussion: Protests over the Olympic torch relay have led to a crackdown in Tibet. Is Tibetan independence a lost cause? If not, what should its supporters do to win it?
Mixing Olympics sports and short-term political issues is a toxic and self-defeating cocktail. Sports, especially championship events like the Olympics and the World Cup, are about contact between people of different countries on commonly agreed rules -- staying away from politics, race, religion and the short-term aims of politicians and their diktat. Sports aim for friendships, brotherhood and a decent cultural exchange of athletes with simple ambitions, long-term plans and years of training. These athletes are from small towns with modest backgrounds, with little exposure to the rest of the world or opaque political agitations in foreign lands, trade deficit frustrations, sub-prime disorders, oil and gas, NATO or Plato.
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