The Current Discussion: With Castro gone, will Cuba become America's 51st state?
The question is about as old as the anti-Cuba sanctions themselves, and the short answer is: hardly! Washington has been drumming for full capitulation by Cuba as a pre-condition. American media reports its summary judgement on Cuba by the age of cars seen in Havana. And when was the last time that a meeting put American and Cuban citizens in touch to scratch the surface?
No Cuban is going to forgive or forget the collective punishment scheme of sanctions, no matter how ineffective they’ve been. Exiles in Miami are fed up with insincere talk therapy. Exiles and residents are independent-minded people and they recall the words of James Bovard: “Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.” In the meantime, the administration in Washington will simply coin yet another “road map” tactic series with preconditions, and hollow vocabulary will be mixed with mushy Freedom Fries and talk to mimic policy.
Other players in the global economy are much better placed than the U.S., politicians and citizens alike. They are ready to deepen respectful ties with an independent Cuba. Since decoupling from USSR, many Canadian and European firms (especially German, Dutch and Spanish investors) have quietly nursed joint ventures and patiently set roots in tourism, refining and pharmaceutical sectors. Given Cuba’s small GDP (about 10% of sub-prime losses on Wall Street, or two weeks’ worth of American trade deficit), a quick move by Chinese, Indian, Russian or Middle Eastern investors could rapidly transform the Cuban economy into a vibrant independent state. Mutual respect is the key to open doors.
Since the revolution, and the income gap notwithstanding, Cuban indices of human development have caught up with those of America: literacy rate, proportion of university graduates and infant mortality rates are a few examples. Cuba has pulled ahead of other countries that were in the same league back in 1950s (Honduras, Guatemala, Peru). It boasts an impressive universal healthcare system, a promising pharmaceuticals industry and other advances in the life sciences sector.
As our fellow PostGlobal panelist Ibsen Martinez has observed, Cuba has exemplary ingredients and the necessary catalyst – an educated human capital base – to transform itself and other inputs of development (working capital and equipment) into a positively-charged social movement and economic activity. Cubans do not need a precursor of political change to get trapped in a road map and the loss of time that goes with it. The evolution of Dubai, Singapore and China are adequate models and lessons for all.
The politics of Cuba are likely to follow the contemporary Chinese model-- gradual, cautious and measured change in response to a coming out with the rest of the world. The last thing Cubans need is a relapse into the lap of yet another isolationist regime, with a skewed vision of the world and a rough and hardened retrospective vision stuck in the 1950s.
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