I don't think that busniesses will resist the temptation of international trade and settle for domestic markets; especially when there are good gains from trading with other countries. If we talk about gains from trade then we are taking about currencies and the value of the USD.

In addition, the trillions which move around the world stock markets cannot be underestimated.It is a powerful tool in the hands of the US and those who are interested in making the US a powerful country

John-Michael

You want to solve today's problems with yesterday's solutions. Military power is useless where there is no danger "on the other side". Right now, what is that mighty military doing in the Atlantic or Pacific or Med.....my answer is zip! It is an absolute waste of money.

Why is it that Europeans or Chinese do not have mighty naval or military power to project muscle around the world? Because they feel no need for it, despite the U.S. presence.

A big or a small navy will not reduce America's massive debt load. Even if "the enemy" is bombed and killed off, the debt load will be there tomorrow!

I would also make a definite distinction between an absolute decline and a relative decline. There is simply no way that the US economy will remain as dominant as developing countries' economies mature. That is not at all a bad thing for the US though. Wealth tends to generate wealth and the US will continue to prosper even as China becomes the world's largest economy. Hopefully as other nations become more economically capable they will also share the security load. It would be nice to have a peer to lean on occasionally.

Wealth is not a zero sum game. Gaining some for yourself does not mean making someone else lose. There is no reason to expect any sort of significant US downturn as a byproduct of growing global economic maturity. Dr. Ettefagh's mentions of rolling recessions and the worst financial crisis in 60 years are completely unfounded.

For anyone that thinks we are in a recession now, please take a second with me to realize just how silly that statement is. A recession is three consecutive quarters of negative growth. We have not had a month, let alone a (1) quarter of negative growth. We have had some soft numbers in manufacturing and unemployment but nothing to suggest much of a significant or long term problem. The real estate market was due for a correction. The sub-prime fiasco has exacerbated the problems that go along with that otherwise healthy correction, but there has not been a credit crunch. The system is not breaking down, and to suggest otherwise is a bit silly. Markets are extraordinarily complex, but when you have both rising incomes and corporate profits routinely beating expectations it is pretty hard to come up with an actual argument for why we are in a "crisis." Dr. Ettefagh tries to scare people with terms they probably do not understand which is a pretty low trick, but the fact of the matter is he is just as incapable as anyone else for making a cogent argument for crisis. That is not due to a lack of intelligence. It is due to the lack of a valid argument.

The foreign powers at the time of the Ottoman Empire wanted to gradually weaken and destroy it. In cooperation with Ottoman traitors like Mustapha Reshid Pasha and other Armenian and Jewish Ottomans, they weakened the Ottoman army and eventually wiped out the Empire with their most valuable Jewish agent, kemal ataturk, almost 200 years later. Of course, not to mention the Safawis and the Wahhabis,…etc

The US is a different story today. It is true that it is going down economically but it is still a super power. It is a nuclear power which can wipe out its enemies, of course if Allah wells it. The US has powerful and rich allies too, some of which are capable of flooding it with oil.

The US use other lethal and powerful policies like pitting sectarian groups against each other(civil wars instigation) and also sharing power with adversaries, like Iran!!!!...In Iraq and Allah knows where else?!!!

Your comparison with Ottomans, your old enemy, was wrong.

You killed your comparison when you mentioned the "green zone"!!

I find the smug opinions voiced by those reacting to Mike's isolationist wants to be just as ill-informed as those wants.

It would be absolutely disasterous for the US to withdraw from the world. The United States of the Great Depression would look like the land of milk and honey compared to what would happen. It would also be equally disasterous for the rest of the world though. Removing 25% of global GDP from the global marketplace would be calamitous enough. The real price is the lost stability that our current global wealth relies on as Cody correctly pointed out.

The US is the only global military power. No other nation or collection of nations has the ability to project their power globally. That means the seas are indeed kept open by our navy. China barely has blue water capability, Europe's navies are too small, and even if the Russian navy was not terminally underfunded it would also be too small.

In a similar way the US Army and USMC provide a very strong detterent to regional upstarts who would otherwise pursue their goals through military means. If a head of state feels that military action on the part of their country would result in American ire they will abstain from a military course. Unfortunately much of Africa and other poor areas of the globe are considered outside our interest or are considered to be in too intractable of a situation. There are significant signs that the US is turning towards a policy of greater engagement with these once forgotten or ignored areas out of an enlightened self-interest, but we'll have to wait and see.

I just wish the people holding their noses in the air towards America would show a little gratitude to their benefactors. It is by our blood and treasure that they come by the luxury of thinking US foreign policy is something worth complaining about. There certainly are plenty of aspects of US foreign policy that one could be justifiably upset about. I strongly disagreed with the invasion of Iraq for isnstance. It would be nice though if people could keep the complaining in context and realize that we do tremendously more good than bad for the world.

I find the smug opinions voiced by those reacting to Mike's isolationist wants to be just as ill-informed as those wants.

It would be absolutely disastrous for the US to withdraw from the world. The United States of the Great Depression would look like the land of milk and honey compared to what would happen. It would also be equally disastrous for the rest of the world though. Removing 25% of global GDP from the global marketplace would be calamitous enough. The real price is the lost stability that our current global wealth relies on as Cody correctly pointed out.

The US is the only global military power. No other nation or collection of nations has the ability to project their power globally. That means the seas are indeed kept open by our navy. China barely has blue water capability, Europe's navies are too small, and even if the Russian navy was not terminally underfunded it would also be too small.

In a similar way the US Army and USMC provide a very strong deterrent to regional upstarts who would otherwise pursue their goals through military means. If a head of state feels that military action on the part of their country would result in American ire they will abstain from a military course. Unfortunately much of Africa and other poor areas of the globe are considered outside our interest or are considered to be in too intractable of a situation. There are significant signs that the US is turning towards a policy of greater engagement with these once forgotten or ignored areas out of an enlightened self-interest, but we'll have to wait and see.

I just wish the people holding their noses in the air towards America would show a little gratitude to their benefactors. It is by our blood and treasure that they come by the luxury of thinking US foreign policy is something worth complaining about. There certainly are plenty of aspects of US foreign policy that one could be justifiably upset about. I strongly disagreed with the invasion of Iraq for instance. It would be nice though if people could keep the complaining in context and realize that we do tremendously more good than bad for the world.

YTS: Of course not. I was being sarcastic, just like the earlier poster. And you write "'security' services of the PAST" - ummm, last time I checked, our Navy is still patrolling international waters. That's not in the past.

I simply wish that people who make generalized, anti-US comments, and sound off on the end of US influence and importance in the world, would take a deep breath, calm down, and mull things over. Hey, if they pick up a few books and learn some facts, even better.

Everyone knows the US would never default on its debts. That's why foreigners invest in our country. All of our nutty politicking, etc aside, we have the most stable government and infrastructure in the world, as well as a mostly free / dynamic / innovative economy.

You know this - any person does - so your comment is mostly in the vein of this guy's article. Generic statements gussied up into something vaguely inflammatory.

CODY
Are you suggesting to the poster above that USA will default on its debt and not pay it back on the excuse of "security" services of the past?

Hoepfully not. That will destroy the last shred of credibility of USA in the world. Unthinkable.

Dr. Ali Ettefagh is trotting out the same old spin of how the world economy is no longer dependent upon America, - a theory based on hope, not fact. If his views are correct, why are the European and Asian stock markets falling? And I could write for three hours about the pro-India and pro-China business hype that passes for financial reporting these days. Anyone actually been to India, or China, or done business with either country? Relax, people. Time Magazine / NY Times / Wash Post to the contrary, India isn't taking over the world anytime soon. When the vast majority of your citizens can't read or write, and vast swathes of your country have no reliable electricity, you're not exactly marching effortlessly to economic glory. Is India doing well? Yes, absolutely. But they also have loads of problems, most of which will get worse as prosperity continues to be linked to an elite few - think social unrest, etc (We could use some of that in the good old USA, come to think of it.)

China is much the same story. Most of this 'the world doesn't need the US' stuff is hype and wishful thinking. Consider this - what would happen if the US Navy decided to stop policing international waters? Think about that for a moment. All of the free trade / commerce / exporting / importing, etc that the world depends upon is essentially allowed to happen because the US Navy patrols international waters. Take a sec to consider trade routes if, say, China patrolled instead. Exactly. So even beyond the obvious economic entanglements between the US and the rest of the world, the world itself is dependent upon our largesse via the Navy. This is a vital point that's rarely made by the financial press. But trade isn't important if it can't happen. And it only happens because of the US.

I do agree with Dr. Ali Ettefagh that the Federal Reserve has sold out Main Street to rescue Wall Street, but what's new there? The Fed's primary job of fighting inflation always takes a back seat to market irrationality. The banks made their fat bonuses and profits by peddling bad debt and now the American taxpayer comes to the rescue. Here's hoping it doesn't end in stagflation.

So Dr. Ettefagh, I don't think things will look all that good in Dubai if the US economy goes into recession and oil prices drop accordingly. And I think China might want to rethink building huge concrete cities and shopping malls that no one actually lives in or visits, and instead focus on their massive environmental issues and increasing social unrest. As for the comment about China's GDP, check your numbers - it's not as simple as 2%. And the comment about the US paying back 9 trillion dollars? Sure, buddy. Pay us back for our Navy guaranteeing your free trade. And for our foreign aid that's been dumped throughout the world. I think we're more than even.

SERÁ QUE O GOVERNO QUER ESCONDER OS LUCROS DOS BANCOS... Para justificar e ao mesmo tempo esconder os fabulosos lucros dos Bancos,prestadores de serviços, com a maior rentabilidade do mundo, em relação ao patrimonio líquido, o Banco Central já busca criar, conforme noticiou a imprensa, um Fundo de Reserva, nos Bancos, para suposto RISCO ...E essas reservas, embora continuassem gerando riquezas no próprio sistema, seriam deduzidas dos Lucros e, portanto, do Imposto de Renda a pagar ao Tesouro.E olha, se realmente for adotada essa medida protecionista e incabível, que pode causar bilhões de reais em prejuizo ao Tesouro ( ao povo) Nacional, seria o caso de se analisar até a criação de uma CPI do Sistema Financeiro,mas que apresentasse resultado em defesa dos interesses maiores da Nação. Os abusos já passaram do limite e o povo é frágil e tem ferramenta da época da pedra lascada para reagir contra tudo isso de sofisticação, aprimporamento e capacidade de descapitalizar um país. Para todas as medidas que beneficiam Bancos e com iniciativa do BC, os resultados sempre foram imediatos. Já as medidas que poderiam beneficiar correntistas, investidores,como redução nas taxas de juros e de serviços bancários, etc.,precisam de longa maturação, como sempre diz o mesmo Banco Central, nós acreditamos e porque ? Será que com uma estrutura tão cara e mantida com suados recursos do Povo, o Banco Central e mais algumas Agências Reguladoras irão continuar esquecendo de cumprir o seu verdadeiro papel ? Apresentando tanto lucro e pouca responsabilidade com o social, o sistema financeiro nacional deve estar sendo, nesse momento, o grande atrativo e cobiça para o capital especulativo internacional aportar aquí no Brasil. Porque EUA, UE e Ásia, não tem mais espaço e ágio criminoso para esse capital volátil que a cada dia e através da imprensa mundial e especializada, vem implantando uma série de notícias, para a fabulosa colheita de ganhos nunca vistos. Será que o Governo está realmente enxergando isso ou a miopia é nossa?. E a selic de 11,25% já não está mais agradando a esse capital voraz e APÁTRIDA, embora o BC não torne público os juros que hoje está pagando para a rolagem de dívida. Já pagamos, através do Tesouro Nacional, nos últimos cinco anos, mais de 700 bilhões de reais em juros e mais de R$ 500 milhões de reais ao dia, em 2007, para alimentar esse capital que não trás produtividade, emprego, renda e consumo.E esse desembolso diário, é sòmente com a dívida de R$ 1,3 trilhões. E o Banco Central já esclarece que a dívida irá crescer entre R$ 180 a 240 bilhões em 2008, passando para R$ 1,48 a 1,54 trilhões. E os juros diários passarão para mais de 600 milhões de reais. Porque continuar culpando o Arroz, o Feijão, o funcionalismo, os aposentados e as justas correções salárias, se o culpado está bem visível e trabalhando na impunidade absoluta? Presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, já está pasando da hora de um basta em tantos privilégios aos sistema financeiro e que só direciona recursos para os financiamentos de Curto Prazo, incluindo os papéis do Governo,como a principal mina de ouro.Presidente, pense no País, como sempre o fez.Não deixe que o Brasil se torne no grande e imenso paraiso fiscal para o deleite da agiotagem internacional. Poder, o senhor tem.E que DEUS continue a nos abendiçoar.

America has become a "Spinocracy Soap Opera" void of the cold, hard facts and reluctant to accept same.

Comments from MIKE are interesting. As an American living abroad I tell you:
OK, Sir, please do it after you pay back the $9 trillion that USA owes the world. I beg you. Please put up your walls, your fences and your wagons in a circle. Don't buy any more oil from outside (including Canada) and don't import any more cheap off-the-books labor from Mexico. And please just play by the rules.

Then let's see who will survive, the majority 95% in the world or America's 5%.
Please note that all of China's exports are only 2% of its GDP, which means their growth will slow from 7-8% to 5-6% which is still very healthy.

You want radical solutions, you got it!

MIKE
Your comments affirm the views of the article. But have you ever wondered why the rest of the world has such a view of USA?

"However, the world is wondering if next American administration will radically junk away globalization."

I will vote for any Presidential candidate who makes such a pledge, regardless of their political affiliation or any other views they might have.

The rest of the world hates us. Great. Let's raise the walls, bring the jobs home, service the domestic market exclusively and let China and Russia have the rest of the world to do with as they please.

Unfortunately, that will never happen and we will be stuck with a world that hates us while they suckle at our teat. Let's let them know how much we hate them too.