The year 2007 will mark the beginning of a trend towards the real end of the Cold War, the same war that appears to remain in progress in the Anglo-American world, whose thoughts and concepts are fossilized in 1950s daydreams. As an observer, I frame this slow awakening process -- thousands of Starbucks shops and strong caffeine notwithstanding -- with the exit performance of American ministers of war enigma (Donald Rumsfeld, Alberto Gonzalez, and John Bolton, to name a few) and the return of American intelligence services and military to professionals that are, relatively speaking, in touch with reality. The unraveling process gained momentum with the departure of Tony Blair in Britain, and elections in Australia. The massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar and the reality of inflation affirmed it. Napoleon’s financial and political loss after its attack on Russia serves as a fair model.
The publication of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran left the American administration standing naked in a field of ruined (silly) policies. Hollow, psychological warfare against Iran crumbled; the missile shield argument on Russia’s borders imploded; and rudimentary scare-mongering failed to gain currency or pit Sunnis against Shiites. The policy-in-progress of experimental politics did not cure the dual headaches of Afghanistan and Pakistan on the cheap. The color-coded “Terror Alert” of America’s Homeland Security apparatus remained stuck on yellow for yet another year, despite several years of massive spending.
Ironically, the NIE was hardly news in Iran. It served as a confirmation of what IAEA and all Iranians knew. It added up to a moment for righteous smiles. Who needs to lie and go through a complex labyrinth of hide-and-seek, when Iran has a legal right to quit the Non-Proliferation Treaty (just like Pakistan and North Korea)?
In a poisoned atmosphere of hyper-propaganda against it, Iran leaped forward to put the Cold War era behind it. Alas, it never was Iran’s war with anyone. Two milestone developments marked Iran’s efforts in the region.
The first was a visit of President Putin to Tehran, some 65 years after the last visit of a Russian leader to Tehran. On this occasion, five neighbors of the Caspian Sea resolved to flatten the way forward and work with mutual and equitable respect. All agreed to work through disputes about the Caspian Sea in cool-headed negotiations. Most importantly, they agreed to close their territories to the foreign forces that have eyed it either as a launch pad to attack another Caspian state or to grab control of energy resources on the cheap. That affirmed a regional desire for cooperation and it closed the unlearned and amateurish bazaar of “velvet revolutions”, dreamed up in assorted bright colours some nine time zones away where large shipments of frozen Freedom Fries await delivery on the back of army tanks. (Is it a faded copy of USSR’s attempted ideological exports to places where it had little or no grasp of the local mindset?)
The second development was also about stronger friendships, good-neighborly conduct and removing doubt. The Gulf Cooperation Council extended a rare invitation to President Ahmadinejad to its annual summit— the third invitation ever extended to an outsider. Iran’s Sunni neighbors originally formed the GCC as a cluster of opposition to the Shiite Iran and rallied around Saddam in the war against Iran. Some 28 years later, and after three very bloody wars, common sense has prevailed. All parties have decided to work out problems and differences around a table without outside influence. Politics, investment and trade are setting the agenda. This is how the EU started its modest beginnings. The entrance of the Saudi King and President Ahmadinejad to the meeting hall, hand in hand as friends, with the leaders of UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Qatar behind both men, was the most meaningful gesture to the world. All realized that it is time to take advantage of common history and religious roots for the benefit of the future generations, rather than letting outsiders and their petty arguments skew reality in the region. The launch of an Egyptian-Iranian car and bus factory within the same week avowed the stark reality of today against the fog of yesterday.
These beginnings have deep roots and a bias towards stability and peaceful co-existence in a tough neighborhood. It is a clear and unmistakable proclamation that no one in this region is prepared to endure the burden of other people’s wars or crusades for energy.
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