The year 2007 will mark the beginning of a trend towards the real end of the Cold War, the same war that appears to remain in progress in the Anglo-American world, whose thoughts and concepts are fossilized in 1950s daydreams. As an observer, I frame this slow awakening process -- thousands of Starbucks shops and strong caffeine notwithstanding -- with the exit performance of American ministers of war enigma (Donald Rumsfeld, Alberto Gonzalez, and John Bolton, to name a few) and the return of American intelligence services and military to professionals that are, relatively speaking, in touch with reality. The unraveling process gained momentum with the departure of Tony Blair in Britain, and elections in Australia. The massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar and the reality of inflation affirmed it. Napoleon’s financial and political loss after its attack on Russia serves as a fair model.

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Dear Presidential Aspirant,

You have indeed picked an important moment in the history of your country. Oh, boy, have you ever! You are either incredibly motivated or extremely out of touch. I hope you are prepared to inherit a Japanese-style chronic recession after fifteen years of stealth asset inflation laced with hype and reckless short-sighted finance. Meanwhile, you will preside over a massive federal deficit that has left all IMF sermons on fiscal discipline in its rearview mirror. All international players, friends and foe alike, will awaken you to the fact that you find your country in a deep isolation. Demoralized taxpayers and their rapidly changing demographics will demand quick fixes and a relapse to yesteryears, the good times jazz age and massive fins on the back of their oversized cars. The foreign policy aspirations of your country might well have a whiff of USSR to them, all saddled with a global warming problem. Being president is a tough job and completely different from your occupation during the election campaign, which is about statistics and rapid reaction to instant polls.

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Tribal behavior and violent conduct are inseparable parts of human psyche. They are hardly local problems in Kenya.

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I am inspired by today’s edition of The Washington Post and its story about lobotomy. Lobbyotomists are essentially the same kind of practitioners as modern day lobotomists. They endeavor to work the brains of politicians and the general public to dispense policy or spread rumors. They tend to think that they have succeeded if leaders quip a one-liner or “rules” on the lives of a large number of people.

Lobbyotomists often drill in the minds of politicians, if only to mine their gray matter and divert them to absurd steps or undignified comments. It is only World War Three, so what’s the big deal?

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The Current Discussion: In the future, global prosperity will present more of a threat than poverty, according to a recent Post op-ed. Is this just rich-American rhetoric, or is the world really getting too prosperous for its own good?

I am astonished to read the commentary of Michael Gerson, who is an analyst from Council on Foreign Relations, a group that presents itself as “nonpartisan”. Blaming other countries is not an excuse to avoid liability for one’s own inactions. Yet I am not surprised.

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The Current Discussion: If countries around the world are doing so well economically, why are they still catching a cold when the United States sneezes?

The question is a very old and backward looking one. It might have been true about 20 years ago, but the question is not the focus of non-English speakers. The challenges and problems of today are different. It is not just about a search of patterns of the past 60 years and the presumptions of post-World War II markets.

The real economies and main streets of Europe, Russia, the Middle East, India and China are going about their usual business. They have accepted higher cost of fuel, energy and raw materials. A Chinese cement producer or an Indian steel mill, a food processor in Egypt, or car and biscuit makers in Iran and Turkey have enough business at home to be cheerful and all have passed on their cost increases to their customers. China welcomes the slowdown to cool its domestic economy as Chinese companies have turned to Vietnam, as a supplier of consumer goods and as a customer of machinery. Indian companies are expanding with record amounts of foreign direct investment flowing in joint ventures. Dubai is the second largest construction site in the world and nothing seems to slow the pace there. Real estate prices in Tehran and Sofia are leaping along with Moscow and Shanghai.

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The Current Discussion: With the U.S. presidential primary season in full swing, there's a lot of talk here about "change" vs. "competence" in leadership. Which does your country have more of? Is that a good thing?

The U.S. presidential primaries are mind-numbing for most foreigners. It appears to be a media jamboree and a quest to get a 30-second clip out of a day’s worth of talk, discussion and speeches. And the most baffling part is that it is a process very different from the actual job of presiding over a powerful and complex country.

When trying to explain the process to a novice, it is as confusing and difficult as explaining the sport of American football. An ordinary football (soccer) fan in the rest of the world is perplexed about different groups of players that come on and off the field. Why the three hours of stop-and-go and how is it that the clock runs on some occasions, but stops on others? Why are there different referees and judges on the field? What is the purpose of those cheerleaders, mascots and massive loads of statistics in a blurring, high energy discussion? Moreover, why do Americans call that oddly-shaped object “the ball,” which is usually a round object elsewhere in the world? Nevertheless, it is a uniquely American event. It is best left to Americans to find their own definitions of change or yardsticks for competence. All can be shrugged off -- live and let live!

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