The political chiefs have dismissed all political and economic realities. All was simplified into a plan to fight an asymmetric war, even though commanders warned that a political solution must compliment this plan. In the meanwhile, Iraqi politics and daily realities for ordinary Iraqis changed for the worse. Life in Iraq is not a matter of simple statistics or pie charts and computer presentations nor can it be reduced to a manager’s quarterly report to a corporate board of directors.

It is good to know that the number of unidentified dead bodies found on the streets of Baghdad is now back to the “pre-surge” days of about 650 a month, or at a random rate of 1 per million Baghdadi every day. It is certainly lower than 2200 a month (or about 35 per million), alas identified and claimed bodies are not counted in this report of “success”. However, such reduced statistics is hardly cause for comfort for any sane Iraqi or others in the world. Never mind that the exodus of Iraqis from their country has surged to about 150’000 people every week! About 18% of all Iraqis now live outside Iraq, presumably the most educated and financially able citizens.

The enemy of Americans and Iraqis, Al Qaeda operatives, have simply packed their bags and resettled the circus in Pakistan (and Afghanistan).

Lately, this fuzzy scale of unfortunate success has produced an unintended by-product: an awakening of American politicians and their round-the-clock debates in Congress. Nevertheless, one might wonder if it is another ploy for domestic election cycles.

Returns to the drawing board must first set aside factional fighting in Washington and inject realistic politics into an overall regional policy plan. This cannot be accomplished without a massive injection of economic activity into Iraq, if only to convince Iraqis that there is an alternative to consider. Encouragement of small and medium-sized labour-intensive enterprises, and not the oil industry, is the only solution.

Iraq needs a massive injection of real capital, at least $100,000 per household, all within three years, to balance the economy. Washington has simply tied the economic plan to the passage of the long-contemplated oil law and the de facto de-nationalisation of the Iraqi oil industry. Many ordinary Iraqis consider it as the final rip-off. Moreover, it will not create the number of jobs needed to turn around the economic fortunes of Iraq—even if Iraqi oil production is to surge to four times its current levels and, at best, it will create another welfare state of the Saddam days.

The military goals set by American commanders have a narrow focus on factional fighting. These plans have simply assumed that life in Iraq will freeze at a standstill until America achieves its military objectives. That is a serious mistake as it does not foresee the moving timeline and a deteriorating economic situation. Civil wars and insurgencies are about control of measly resources in desperate economies, and the crux of returning life to “normal” in Iraq must have the economy at the heart of it. This flaw in a strategic vision will assure that Iraq will be a fertile field for yet more rolling crises, and further relapses into yet more violence.