Tehran, Iran - This is probably the most profound question that Europeans must answer in the coming 50 years. It will take at least this much time to reach an equitable answer. It will not be easy to achieve an economic, social, cultural, and perhaps political union between a country of 70 million Muslim Turks (and Kurds) and a body of 300 million Christians constituting more than 130 diverse ethnic groups and religions. This is no longer just the cause of The Treaty of Rome or subject of The European Economic Community (EEC). There are as many who support Turkey joining the Union both within and outside the EU. There are also many who oppose it.
The world launched this century by amplifying religious differences, making it harder to find common ground. The recent prayer of the Pope facing Mecca in a Turkish mosque without a crucifix around his neck was a significant gesture in the search for common ground and the start a new round of inter-cultural dialogue. However, good things take time. This gesture must prove more than a photo opportunity over the coming months.
In my professional life, I have spent more than two decades in close contact with Turkey. I have seen at least 4 different economic boom-bust cycles and painful currency devaluations, 17 different IMF agreements, unstable governments for 18-24 months, mass privatizations, and banking rip-offs. I have seen endless revisions of the Turkish constitution made by a mix of leftist, rightist, religious and secular governments in Turkey. A road accident at Susurluk left behind the bodies of a wanted gangster, a police commander, and a parliament member, all in the same car.
As a Turkish-speaking foreigner with an appreciation of Turkish and European societies, I find a worthy denominator for all Turks and EU citizens. They all wish for stability, continuity, and a guaranteed system of transparent democracy. They demand human rights. But Turks want to enter the EU to preserve these things; the original 15 of the EU considers them preconditions for entry.
In all likelihood, the search for tangible common ground between Turkey and the EU will take generations. Turkish laws and cultural practices must be scrutinized and measured against the famous Copenhagen Criteria. The Cyprus issue will be at the forefront of all discussions. Europeans must also shed their prejudice against Turks (Shakespeare's The Merchant of Venice is one example of it).
The EU should not turn to deadlines or short-term political fixes. They should not make excuses, offer a blunt Cold War reward for NATO's second largest army, a bonus for an emerging market, or cite the violence between Muslims in sidestepping the issue. They also should drop arguments about demographic trends in Europe when discussing this subject. Meaningful conversation is due. Shortcut solutions will play into the hands of extremists on both sides and, in turn, these groups will seize the common ground that moderates don't occupy, leading to another conflict we could still avoid.
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