Tehran, Iran - I tend to focus on trends rather than personalities when analyzing this part of the world. I look for concepts and structures that are gaining currency here.
Admittedly, the founders of the 1979 Revolution set up a complex state structure. They were afraid of further intervention or another coup. As such, it has taken time for the constitution of the republic to be set firmly in place.
In the past 27 years we've seen a destructive 8-year war with Iraq, the chronic reluctance of the rest of the world to accept Iran, the rise of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and another war in Iraq.
These issues have overshadowed the fact that Iran has indeed experienced a revolution that ranks alongside other notable regime changes of the 20th century from Russia and India to China. It took them generations to institutionalize their changes. Russia especially suffered through a very destructive war.
Now I see grassroots institutions and structures taking root in Iran, albeit gradually. Political organizations and parties are forming cautiously. Political groups in Iran range from ultra-conservatives, moderates, realists, technocrats, liberals to pro-reformist and ultra-religious groups. All have their own unique brand of domestic politics; all have their own newspapers and town meetings and mosque gathering. Regional meetings, conferences, and debates reflect their various political formations. Municipal elections in Iran, you see, are only 3 weeks away.
Most noticeable among these groups is that the age of the political aspirants is very low. The older politicians seem to have passed the baton to a younger generation. I find this to be an encouraging indicator of a healthy political process. It has set aside the need for tectonic moves on the political turf. The older generation of politicians (and clergy) are now replaced with younger (non-clergy) candidates such as retirees from the armed forces. The speaker of the parliament and the president are the most noticeable examples of this younger political group. The mayor of Tehran entered politics after early retirement from the national police force. He was a candidate in the last presidential elections. His successor in the police force is also out of uniform now and is an aspiring candidate for the municipal council of Tehran.
Change at all levels of the vast government structure is notable because the Iranian economy is transforming. The private sector is gaining strength. Competition is winning. A visitor to Tehran might observe new, privately owned city buses running along the same routes served by government-owned municipal buses. Private sector banks, and NGO credit cooperatives are competing for deposits and loan businesses of very large state-owned banks. In turn, state-owned banks are upgrading their branches and services with faster response time. A customer now has a choice of data services and mobile telephone services as the grip of the state monopoly is loosened. The change of generations can also be observed in Iranian courts, police stations, and the tax offices.
These are modest beginnings. Like elsewhere in the world, there is room for improvement of quality, and quantity, at all levels. Larger budgets, less red tape, and more investment in education and training are always welcome. Indeed, they are in endless demand.
However, the sum of these parts points unmistakably towards a process of change promoting institutionalized, transparent structures. Trial and error is part of the formula. And a positive attitude -- that "can do, will do" state of mind -- is a necessary ingredient for this change, which rises above fixation on any particular personality, political or otherwise.
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