The old East-West rift in governance is now mixed with the clash between the rich north and the economically disadvantaged south. The tilt back to socialism is happening in Europe too, as seen in Bulgarian, Czech, German, Slovak and Ukrainian elections. The impact of immigration in Europe and Latin America influences this.

The 2002 Brazilian elections and the subsequent spread of populist social doctrine in Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia and Mexico ought to have reminded Washington that Latin American politics and democracy (where applicable) have modernized with time. All of these commodity-based economies depend on trade with America. Their votes of protest are against lower net purchasing power over the last two decades.

Cubans, like its neighbours, need economic opportunities, not another oil-for-food survival scheme financed by IMF loans. It is unlikely the Cuban population will simply drop their brand of independent socialism and take up Dr. Condoleezza Rice's vague offer of "humanitarian assistance". American policy is fixed on ineffective policy tools and data that are decades old. It is designed to appease disconnected Cuban exiles in the USA. Labels such as "freedom" tend to ring hollow to the unemployed Cubans. Jobs and trade steer the economy and will shape the politics of the island.

America must lead investment in Cuba. The GDP of Cuba equals a mere three weeks of the American trade deficit. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, there are no stark religious undertones to prevent practical American investment in Cuba. Small labour-intensive investments in a country with a population of 11 million will have a noticeable impact. Sanctions must be unilaterally dropped. Ineffective and toothless "freedom" legislation and one-fits-all visions must be revised. The lessons from increased trade with China, and the gradual relaxation of the communist grip, could easily apply to Cuba.

These strategies may prove too difficult and time consuming for Washington. Impatient politicians in Washington usually prefer short-term tactics to long-term strategy. That may be the only point of concurrence between Cuban and American statesmen. Cubans are also more likely to choose short-term comfort, in their case the trendy politics and populism of their Latin American neighbours, rather than investing in long-term strategies for growth.