Tehran, Iran - The break-up of Iraq will cause regional conflicts and will lead to a massive devaluation of America's political capital as a superpower. It would be a spectacular failure that must be avoided.
America and its junior partners attacked Iraq to liberate the country from a brutal regime. A democratic Iraq -- not a failed state with a civil war -- was the goal. The coalition boasted victory over a cream puff army but is clueless when it comes to achieving the promised peace. In practice, the net yield is the end of secular pan-Arabist and Baathist doctrines in the region.
However, this sectarian war is not an indigenous issue. It is fuelled and funded by other Sunni regimes to deflect change back home from their pseudo-Arabist doctrines. The occupiers have failed to provide security for the occupied as mandated by the Geneva Conventions and Iraq has turned to an unstable Terror Central, host to all varieties of foreign and mindless (Sunni) terrorists. A break-up plan is no substitute for security for Iraqis.
A grand leap of imagination is required to elevate the Kurdish region to an unprecedented "democratic" state after merely three years. PKK terrorists maintain offices in Baghdad, Erbil and Suleymaniyeh. Messrs. Barzani and Talebani were indisputable supporters of this violent group that caused more than 30,000 deaths in Turkey and Iran over the last 15 years. A Kurdish state will certainly tip the strong hand of the Turkish army, a NATO partner, to aiding the Turkomen tribes. Kirkuk will be the new battlefield. Iran and Syria will certainly provide moral assistance to Turkey.
Sunni and Shiite Iraqis have found their own local formulas to deal and interact with each other. However, they remain baffled about the clarity and intentions of the occupiers. No Iraqi can understand the logic behind the dissolution of their national army where they served as conscripts. They join the rest of the world to wonder why Iraq is so poorly administered only to evolve as Terror Central for violent foreign terrorists with no political doctrine. All acknowledge that jihadists are funded by corrupt Sunni regimes in the region and perhaps invited by their American patrons. Despite all violence, Ayatollah Sistani and his Shiite followers have supported Iraq's integrity with political and party lists and the highest turnout in Iraqi elections.
Like the British Mandate and her wrong bets of the 20th century, the partitioning of Iraq will prove to be another reckless academic experiment. It must be avoided. A stable and democratic Iraq can eventually decide upon its own devolution or a federal system of administration. Genuine support is the obligation of the occupiers. Iraq must first set down roots in democratic institutions and then find an orderly formula to push out all regular and irregular foreign forces from its territory.
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