readers,

can we for once question the sincerity of the content being sent out. writers such as mr rashid have a suspect track record in thier own countries of origin. who's interest are they furthering really, are they providing honest and truthful analysis or is there a slant in their message?

I'm surprised that a renowned journalist like Ahmed Rashid paints such an overly optimistic - and if I may say "exaggerated future" for Afghanistan in 2007.

Taliban, although not to be taken as a unitary group, are driven chiefly by their self-proclaimed ideology on Islam and Jihad more than anything else.

Give me an example within the international realm where "leaders' ideologies" changed overnight, and I will show you hundreds of pages from the world history that prove you wrong.

If the Taliban's leadership join the national reconciliation bid even in the next decade let alone 365 days, I envision a bright future for the war-ravaged Afghanistan.

Mr. Rashed, see you on December 31st, 2007.

a deal with taliban would mean recognition to the encroachment of pakistan in afghanistan. taliban are merely gloves who hide the ugly intentions of Pakistan and its spy agency ISI. it is fact that Europe learnt after bloody wars that no nation can be enslaved and thus agreed to the establishment of nation states. in this way Pakistan is not that much powerful which can stop national emotions. however, we see that the coporate army of Pakistan is trying to tighten its hold on volitile Balochistan which is slowly slipping from the rest of Pakistan. the criminal Musharraf once killed Nawab Bugti and is now trying to corner other nationalist leaders like sardar Akhtar Jan Mengal and Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri. it would prove dangrous. Pakistan has become "prison of Nations" whhich the world must notice.
secondly, it would not be strange if the so called league or PPP parliamentarians vote Musharraf to be president for next five years becuase only selfinterest is paramount for such politicians. they are all those who have been bred up in flower-pots of army. no one should expect good from those who do politics of national level because pakistanis are not a nation. Pakistan came into being on the basis of vague two nation theory but would surely break up on the basis of clear and true Five Nations Theory.
thirdly, one Sh. Rasheed called Maulana Fazlur Rehman Amir JUI Pakistan as the seventh Fleet of America which Pakistan hoped to join on its part during the war of 71. it is true, that the political parties who promote fundamentalism (without religion) and cash political aspirations of people are also part of army but in plain clothes. these elements playing with emotions of poor and backward people. they are responsible for unrest and destrcution of Afghanistan and Kashmir. they must be disbanded or the world would face many 9-11 and 7-7 type of incidents.

To Sami:
Looks to me you are perfectly content with Gen. Musharraf's rule and helping him with ideas how to stay in power.

I think you have such a little mind that you cant tell if army rule is good or bad for the country.

No matter what army and generals has no business in the politics. That the cause of all the troubles in Pakistan.

One does not have to be fond of any political party or mullahs to oppose aremy. Army ruling the country is HARAM just like pork. No matter how politicans are screwd up, army have no business to interfer with political system.

Any general responsible for violating this rule should be put in Jail.

What a load of nonsense. Pakistan certainly is head towards more stabilization, provided the government stand its ground against foreign threats and maintains peace and stability in the country.

Afghanistan is different matter.

Dear Mr. Rasheed

Sorry but i disagree with your opinion.

the condition i see is heading toward much more stabilisation .

Mr. Karzai and Taliban confrontaion may continue but no dramatic serious blood bath is expected in near future. the simple reason is that it is not in favour of anybody. Neither present day taliban are interested to take over Kabul neither Kabul regime have any resources to start flushing taliban from southern province. so the status quo will prevail with small scale fighting erupting here and there. and taliban continue to gain their strength day by day. with open conflict they know they will loose every thing.

president musharraf also will not face any serious oppsition in getting reelected and continue for coming years.

although even NATO realize that it is in no win situation still they will not withdraw due to domestic pressure but may continue in low profile.

Even though George Bush's support is the kiss of death in that part of the world.
What happens in Karachi and Lahore determines the course of events in Pakistan.
Musharraf will stay in power.
Punjab is not opposed to his rule. I say this because Punjab has never voted for the extreme religious right. Also because Punjabis 65% of the country are educated hardworking and smart people. No one takes the Mulla/Moulivi's seriously in Lahore.

The North West Frontier of Pakistan is different. Musharraf must have magic wand!
and or keep his fingers crossed.
What can any one do. The Pashtoons/Pathans, cannot be bought (50 million for BinLadin), they cannot be threatened, you cannot even suck up to them because then it is worse, it is disdain on top of enimity. Nothing works! You just hope that time heals their wounds (the Bajaur air strike)and they do nothing bad in the interval.
Sure anyone can creat chaos. Even if one 1% of the population opposes him you are talking about 1.6 million people. And they can be easily exploited by foreign powers.
As we know Baluchistan is on the radar of both the Americans and the Chinese.
I think that area will be of interest because of its proximity to the warm waters
and the oil tankers.

Benazir Bhutto and the MQM chief both are opposed to the religious right taking over Sind.
Karachi the 3rd biggest city in the world is solidly behind Musharraf by default.

And finally it also depends on how the Cricket team performs. If they win the World Cup well then there will be celebrations on the streets.

My advice to Musharraf :
Concentrate on Iran. Iran can help keep order in Baluchistan.
Finally know that your true friends in the neighborhood are Iran,Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Interesting scenario, though hardly unexpected (as had been the criteria for submissions.)
-Hamesha
safrang.wordpress.com

Can't the US pressurize Pakistan before all the bloodhsed you are predicting.