However, before that happens there will be an extremely bloody Taliban offensive across southern Afghanistan in February-March, coupled with suicide bombings in Afghan cities, which will severely test NATO's resolve to stay the course in the country. At least one major European NATO country will be forced to pull out its troops from Afghanistan because of protests at home.

In Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's summer bid to get himself elected as President for the next five years and also remain army chief will become seriously imperiled as opposition protests against continued military rule. The protests will create a major political crisis, which will suck in the international community worried about Islamic extremism, Pakistan's nuclear weapons, and stability in the region. The outcome may force Musharraf to resign, while U.S. political intervention will force the army to cancel its current clandestine support for the Taliban operating out of Pakistan.

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