Casablanca, Morocco -- False, given the current conditions. The easy answer is that a future conservative-led Iranian state, bolstered by its dominant position, would try to strengthen itself by playing the Shiite card.
In Iraq and Bahrain, Shiites constitute over 60% of the population. In Lebanon, Shiites form the largest religious group with 34%. In Saudi Arabia, though only 8% of the population, Shiites are concentrated in the most oil-rich region of the country, the Eastern Province.
By a "dominant" Iran I guess we mean "militarily superior", which can only mean nuclearized since a nuclear Israel is in the region. Consequently, threatened countries will also strive to acquire the nuclear weapon. Countries with Shiite majorities run the risk of "Iraqisation". Hezbollah and Hamas would harden their position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, making a peaceful settlement even more unlikely. Hence, less safety and stability.
This scenario, however, is deterministic and flawed. Deterministic because it is far from certain that religious and sectarian sentiments would prevail over national and ethnic ones. Flawed because it does not account for the internal dynamics of Iranian politics. If it is true that conservatives hold the levers of power in the country and have managed so far to quash the reformist movement in the political arena, that does not mean that the Iranian society's thirst for liberal reforms has disappeared. The persistence of a pro-reform current in Iran could still tone down the conservatives' hardline stance on foreign policy.
Alas, it could also produce the opposite effect, which we are already witnessing. Using the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a pretext to label reformists as traitors -- soft on Israel and the US -- Iran silences them. This brings us to a major element of Iranian foreign policy: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a geo-strategic resource. A recent Zogby International poll found that 60% of respondents in Arab countries are in favor of Iran developing nuclear weapons. In the same poll, Israel and the US are perceived to be the region's biggest threats. Iran's leadership is playing to this audience.
A positive development toward a peaceful settlement of the Israel-Palestinian conflict -- or at least a perceived attempt at fairness, especially from the US -- could go a long way in depriving radicals and the Iranian regime in particular of a central pretext of their radicalism.
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