Readers’ Responses to Our Question (37)

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SIERRA LEONE PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC LEAGUE

PDL

PUBLIC RELEASE STATEMENT 28 August, 2008.

Subject : « PDL SUPPORTS THE INDEPENDENCE, NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY, TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY AND SELF-DETERMINATION OF THE REPUBLICS OF ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA » !

On 26th. August, 2008 the democratically elected President and Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federation of Russia, His Excellency Dmitry Medvedev signed a Decree declaring that Russia formally recognises the independence, national sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination of the Republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This step taking by Russia is symbolic in the sense that it saves the world from another campaign of annihilation, embarked upon by the NATO backed terror machine in Tbilisi against the freedom-loving people of the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

We, of the Sierra Leone People’s Democratic League (PDL) hereby therefore, state our solidarity, support and recognition of the independence, national sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination of the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and welcome the two independent nations as new sovereign members-state of the community of free and civilised world. We call all free and civilised nations of the world to ignore US/Western imperialist threats and intimidations, and recognise the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as sovereign independent nations in the international community.

We call on the Georgian government of President Mikhail Saakashvili in Tbilisi to respect the sovereignties of Abkhazia and South Ossetia ; and urge NATO war-mongers, particularly the US, Britain, France, the racist-Zionist state of Israel, the Ukrainian rogue state, etc to end their support for Georgia’s aggression, campaign of terror and genocide against the people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

As a result of their love and just campaign for peaceful co-existence, stability, freedom and the internationally cherished values of human dignity, the people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are presently faced with genocide and other heinous attacks at the hands of NATO backed spurious regime in Tbilisi.
We note the following:

i. The people of Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia share common traditional values, culture and historical background.

ii. The racist-Zionist Israel sold sizeable number of banned weapons of annihilation, such as unarmed aerial vehicles, battle tanks, missiles and even sent Israeli combat personnel to train the terror machinery in Tbilisi against the freedom-loving people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

iii. The deployment of US/NATO warships to the Black Sea is unwanted and unwelcome, and threatens international peace, security and stability.

iv. The continued existence of NATO alliance, after the demise of the Warsaw Pact in 1991, and its expansionist policy aimed at destabilising the Commonwealth of Independent States-CIS-(consist of mainly of states of the former Soviet Union), and to humiliate Russia.

v. International moral principles and law condemned acts of genocide and those who commit them and the action of the Tbilisi towards the people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are tantamount to committing war crime and crime against humanity.

vi. God Almighty, the Maker, Giver and Protector is using Russia to save millions of people in Abkhazia and South Ossetia against US/NATO conspiracy, and to rekindle the hope of humanity which was lost under US unipolarism.

vii. Russia’s timely intervention in Abkhazia and South Ossetia has further exposed western hypocrisy and NATO members-state primitive mentality of the cold war outdated policies and prejudices.

The Sierra Leone People’s Democratic League (PDL) believes that democracy, human rights, rule of law, freedom and dignity should be promoted and defended in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and we call all 53 members-state of the African Union (AU) and the international civilised community to act immediately and establish full diplomatic ties with the newly independent republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

As we commend the Government of Russia for successfully averted genocide in the Baltic region, we call on the United Nations to immediately convey a Special Session of the General Assembly to recognise the independence, national sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination of the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Long live the Republic of Abkhazia!

Long live the Republic of South Ossetia!

No to NATO Fascist terrorism!

No to NATO Nazi-Terrorism!

No to NATO territorial ambition!

Dismantle the unholy alliance of NATO now!

Stop racist-Zionist Israeli militarism against the freedom-loving people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia!

Stop US/Western imperialist gangsterism and primitive gun-boat diplomacy in the Baltic region (the Black Sea)!

Withdraw British aggression troops out of the Ukraine territory!

Signed:

Alimamy Bakarr Sankoh

Leader and Chairman of the Sierra Leone People’s Democratic League (PDL).

For and on behalf of PDL members and supporters everywhere!

MikeB

Thanks for the info.

I have always been on the fence regarding the US recognition of Kosovo independence. There were positives to allowing the Muslim population self determination, and negatives - like the precedent of changing the internationally recognized boundaries of a country over the objections of that country.

The Russian - in your face - granting of independence to Abkhazia and South Ossetia (if Russia takes that step) has similarities to the Kosovo precedent. Russia very strongly opposed Kosovo independence.

The world seems to be moving in the direction of self determination for ethnic minorities which is clearly a danger to today’s nation-state system.

I am a big critic of China but , in my opinion, China will not invade anyone in the near future. China is a very patient country and prone to diplomacy to solve border disputes - as with Russia - but today, who knows for sure?

ROTTEN WORLD,

So, is Putin still on your Christmas Card list?

To GET THE FULL STORY:

from the New York Times , August 14, 2008 ("Signs of Ethnic Attacks in Georgia Conflict"):

“…As the conflict between Russia and Georgia enters its second week, there is growing evidence of looting and “ethnic cleansing” in a number of villages throughout the area of conflict.

The attacks — some witnessed by reporters or documented by a human rights group — include stealing, the burning of villages and possibly even killings. Some are ethnically motivated, while at least some of the looting appears to be the work of profiteers in areas from which the authorities have fled.
The identities of the attackers vary, but a pattern of violence by ethnic Ossetians against ethnic Georgians is emerging and has been confirmed by some Russian authorities. “Now Ossetians are running around and killing poor Georgians in their enclaves,” said Maj. Gen. Vyacheslav Nikolaevich Borisov, the commander in charge of the city of Gori, occupied by the Russians.
A lieutenant from an armored transport division that was previously in Chechnya said: “We have to be honest. The Ossetians are marauding.”…

…Human Rights Watch issued a report on Thursday that documented attacks by ethnic Ossetians in and around Tskhinvali on Wednesday. Researchers saw a number of houses on fire in the town of Java. They quoted a South Ossetian intelligence officer as saying that his fighters had burned the houses to “make sure” that the Georgians could not come back.
The report’s findings also seemed to indicate that early Russian accounts of casualties, which in the first days of fighting reached 2,000, were far too high. In Tskhinvali , where the heaviest fighting took place, the local hospital received 44 corpses and 273 wounded people from Aug. 6, after clashes between separatists and Georgians, to Aug. 12, the report said, citing a doctor.
The report quoted the doctor as saying that the majority of the wounded were affiliated with the military, although it was not clear if he meant the Russian or Georgian armies or Ossetian fighters.…”

At least, according to Human Rights Watch, the initial reports of the killing hundreds or even thousands of South Ossetian civilians was greatly exaggerated. In fact, the Georgians may have suffered the most. More investigations may determine otherwise.

I think everyone is overreacting a bit to all the saber rattling and invasions. Sure, Russia has become much more authoritarian. Russia is the largest power in eastern Europe. We treat their involvement in Georgia as if it is without precedent. Really, it's in their neck of the woods, so none should be shocked that if they are moving at all, they are moving against Georgia.

Not that it excuses Russia invading Georgia. At best, they have become a foreign invader moving into a civil war that they obviously wanted. I don't like when my own country does it, and I'll surely not support Russia for provoking a war of independence because the Georgian government is doing something Russia doesn't like. Georgia has the right to do whatever it pleases, including joining NATO in the, obviously, inevitable instance they will be attacked. Ukraine will be banging down NATO's doors to get in at this point.

But I do think we're going a bit far on how we're portraying this all. I don't even really think Russia is making much of a power play, especially trying to face down America. Georgia isn't a good place to do either. Obviously, America doesn't care an awful lot about Georgia since they aren't yet part of NATO. If anything, Russia has just made the case to its neighbors that they are better off with an American alliance than trusting its neighbor. I imagine Georgia will feel much closer to its European neighbors than to Russia next door.

If this is a territorial grab, Russia didn't exactly do it well. Georgia is as good a target as any, but Russia was doing so well. Would anyone have stopped Russia if they had gone all the way? But they did stop halfway through, and that will leave a nation that does not particularly appreciate their presence. If this was a message to the United States, the same halting steps aren't going to scare Bush who, obviously, doesn't care very much.

My analysis is that Russia thought it could try something interesting and, whatever the results for Russia, I doubt the Georgians will express their gratitude to Russia. And who knows what Ukraine will do to buffer its Russian border. NATO will certainly have a reason to allow them in. I don't think they will be allowed in summarily, but Georgia and Ukraine just had their NATO case made concrete. Obviously, they will be attacked if they are not NATO members.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but I think we're getting ahead of ourselves proscribing Russia's single-mindedness. To be honest, this doesn't seem like it will ultimately help Russia's cause outside of isolating itself (which could be the case, as Russian isolation can help it dominate its own people). Otherwise, I think Russia tested the fence. Six months from now, no one outside Russia, Georgia, Ukraine, and maybe a few neighbors will remember or care.

But we'll see how it all pans out. It's all happening very far away from me, and I have a tendency for cynicism. Who knows what will happen?

@ mikeb... deal.

Done! One week, no posts for me. For you, no more upper case letters unless dictated by grammatical rules ever again. I will allow for an occasional upper case word to be used for emphasis only. Will you take that bet?

MikeB: "I would bet that China makes some territorial grabs before the fall elections, especially if we are in some sort of face off with Russia."

:( :(
:0 :|
:) :)

I bet China will NOT.

What do you bet?

If I loose, I am prepared to abstain from posting on PG for... :) a day?... well, ok :), shall we say a week? -- Unless you insist I write something people from both the American right and the American extreme right will consider "pro-American"? :) :) I am not sure I can do that though. It would have to be short... and even so... :)

What do you bet, Mike?

Tom - Abkhazia and South Ossetia are due to be recognized by Russia as independent countries. There are discussions for doing this underway right this minute. In the case of South Ossetia the Russian's actually created the mess. South Ossetia was a part of Georgia, but the citizens are of a different ethnic group. There are and always have been yearning for an independent state that would include North and South Ossetia. Some Ossetian's played the Russian against Georgia in an attempt to establish that independent state. The Russian's, stirring the pot, went in and issued RUSSIAN PASSPORTS to South Ossetian citizens and took advantage of the independence movement. They are doing precisely the same thing in what the Russian press is now calling the Republic of Abkhazia. There are different ethnic groups all over this region, all with independence movements and the Russian's have been taking advantage of the situation in all of them.

Get a good online translator or find an English language site and do a bit of reading of published reports from these movements. Virtually all of them have some form of web site or other. The Russian's, if anyone had cared to look (and we can assume that the incompetent idiots at our CIA or Bush White House did not so look) they could have seen the invasion of Georgia unfolding.
Here is the address of a good website with their take on the news that will give you a "heads up" on what will happen next. Note the cooperation agreements being pursued with Syria, India, etc. and the warning to the Ukraine concerning Sevastopol.
http://en.rian.ru/onlinenews/

If you can find an online translator, there are a number of news sites from Azerbaijan that will turn your hair gray! The Russian's are making a move to dominate that region of the world, gain complete control of oil and natural gas production and distribution, and ensure that no country in the region is in a position to play the U.S. off against them. For all of those reasons, Poland, the Czech Republic, all of the Baltic States are genuine jeopardy and likely will not survive. At the very least, Russia will not permit any missile or missile shield in the Ukraine or Poland or anywhere else on their border. They WILL invade. You can count on that. This country has been so weakened that Putin and other Russian leaders believe that now is the time to push us out. Every analysis I can come up with demonstrated that China feels exactly the same way and I would bet that China makes some territorial grabs before the fall elections, especially if we are in some sort of face off with Russia.

"When the U.S. lost three and a half thousand people on September 11th, Russia became the first country to express its support," said Gergiev, referring to the al Qaeda attacks in 2001 which in fact killed nearly 3,000.

"For South Ossetia to lose 1,500 or 2,000 people today is a terrible tragedy but no one knows about it," he said. "To shoot at kids, at children from a tank, it's a shame and the world should know about this shame."

Gergiev looked shocked as he was shown around the ruins of houses reduced to mangled rubble.

Russian forces repelled the invasion and then pushed further into Georgia, provoking an storm of international criticism. Washington said Moscow's actions had evoked Cold War memories of the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe.

But South Ossetia and Russia say Georgian troops went on the rampage during their attack and accuse Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili of genocide against the Ossetians, who are ethnically distinct from Georgians.

The people of South Ossetia are angry at GEORGIA for attacking them. They aren't blaming Russia. The Georgian army rolled through neighborhoods destroying homes and shooting civilians from tanks.

***How can you back this type of government and turn this into a 'lets hate Russia' propoganda game?

Georgia is quite possibily masking genocide-like attacks and Russia is simply protecting is border-city, albeit very aggressively. But quite frankly you don't play games militarily with Russia just because you have US favor. I am NOT seeing this as a situation so crystal clear that we can so quickly condemn Russia.

Source: AS REPORTED BY REUTERS
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSLL24645520080821

The cold war has been over for a LONG TIME. I suggest readers go find some other News sources, this place smacks on neo-con puppets.

Anything having to do with the Caspian region, we will see Russia act, and rightfully so.
Our greedy, power hungry tyrants in the US have already proved to the world what they will do to secure future energy supplies. Human life is not important to these people, haven't they proved this? Would you sacrifice your children to keep the barrel below 150? Oh, that's right, we are "liberators", it's not about energy.
I'm quite sure Iran, Russia, and other will sell us oil and LNG for the next 100 years but why buy it when we can kill you , and take it for free?
Some painful lessons are coming.

Sorry, last post to BobL

“I'm not saying I agree with Russia's use of military force in Georgia, but I do understand it. Russia views their security interests with as much determination as the US views theirs and probably more so.
I firmly believe this whole conflict could have been avoided and it wasn't. I can not look at this situation and see anything other then a US diplomatic failure.”

1. If the reports are true, and Georgia attacked South Ossetia without provocation, then this was surely a reckless act and incredible miscalculation on the part of Saakashvili. This seems very unlikely to me, but Russia was there to protect South Ossetia, so Russia responded with force, and that is within their rights. We know that Russia is really not concerned with the human rights of the South Ossetians because of the way Russia crushed the Chechens, so it was clearly used as an excuse to send a message to the West. The attack was swift, well planned and probably premeditated.

2. The small satellite countries surrounding Russia have a long history of dealing with the Russians, thus who knows better than these countries how long their new found independence might last? They also must have known this would antagonize Russia, yet they still made the decision to join NATO and the EU - for their own security. Obviously, they were right. The US (and Europeans) rightly supported the expansion of NATO and the EU.

3. When the US supports dictatorships - such as in the Middle East - we come under tremendous criticism, yet when we promote democratic change as is the case with former Russian client-states, we are blamed for antagonizing Russia. Was the US and the EU promoting democratic change? Of course. Was the US and the EU furthering their interest? Of course. Regardless, the US is not at fault for the Russian-Georgian war. If we go to war with Venezuela, we cannot blame Russia because they antagonized us by supplying Venezuela with military equipment or considered Venezuela an ally. If Russia supplies Venezuela with nuclear offensive missiles, then that's different - and the same goes for Georgia. Georgia is absolutely no threat to Russia with conventional weapons.

4. Abkhazia and South Ossetia, are recognized by the UN - including Russia - as a part of Georgia. When Russia entered South Ossetia as a peacekeeping force (1992?), Georgia had a pro Russian leader. When Saakashvili was elected, his pro American stance deeply antagonized Russia. At that point, Russia’s peacekeeping force should have been replaced by a UN force. Its simply became a case where the fox was watching the hen house. Russia just waited for the opportunity.

War is generally the result of diplomatic failure, but I disagree that the US (or the EU) is at fault. Either Russia provoked a response (in which case, Georgia still did a stupid thing) or Georgia attacked unprovoked. There's the fault for the war. The expansion of NATO is not a just cause to attack a country.

Ukraine.

But before that Russia will have to vacate Georgia.

Also, the newly-emboldened Russia in the post-American world will treat this 'time' as a vast 'opportunity' to reassert itself as one of the 'superpowers'.

The greatest threat to the United States is not Russia, it is not China: it is the United States itself.

Andrew Bacevich: “I've been troubled by the course of U.S. foreign policy for a long, long time… I really reached the conclusion that our biggest problems are within… I think there's a tendency on the part of policy makers and probably a tendency on the part of many Americans to think that the problems we face are problems that are out there somewhere, beyond our borders. And that if we can fix those problems, then we'll be able to continue the American way of life as it has long existed. I think it's fundamentally wrong. Our major problems are at home…

One of the ways we avoid confronting our refusal to balance the books is to rely increasingly on the projection of American military power around the world to try to maintain this dysfunctional system or set of arrangements that have evolved over the last 30 or 40 years… Fix the world in order to sustain this dysfunctional way of life that we have back here… There is nothing in the Preamble to the Constitution which defines the purpose of the United States of America as remaking the world in our image, which I view as a fool's errand… I believe that the framers of the Constitution were primarily concerned with focusing on the way we live here, the way we order our affairs…

The big problem, it seems to me, with the current crisis in American foreign policy, is that unless we do change our ways, the likelihood that our children, our grandchildren, the next generation is going to enjoy the opportunities that we've had, is very slight, because we're squandering our power. We are squandering our wealth. In many respects, to the extent that we persist in our imperial delusions, we're also going to squander our freedom because imperial policies, which end up enhancing the authority of the imperial president, also end up providing imperial presidents with an opportunity to compromise freedom even here at home…

The Iraq war … was a fundamental mistake. It never should have been undertaken… What we should learn from history is that preventive war doesn't work. The Iraq War didn't work. … I think the global war on terror, as a framework of thinking about policy, is deeply defective…This might be the moment when we look ourselves in the mirror [and]… see what we have become.”

"Set thine house in order." --- Book of Second Kings, chapter 20, verse one.

(“The Limits of Power: the End of American Exceptionalism”**) -- See also “Is Perpetual War our Future?” *** and refer to “I.O.U.S.A” One Nation Under Stress In Debt (iousathemovie.com)

**

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/08152008/transcript1.html

***

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174965/andrew_bacevich_the_lessons_of_endless_war

Posted by: Citizen of the post-American world | August 20, 2008 9:43 PM

...it looks like the next step in the Russian plan is about to fall into place. The Russian's have cut all contact with NATO and have served warning to the Ukraine that they will not be impeded in their use of a leased base at Sevastopol and are also making claims against Odesa. Apparently Putin is going to provoke some sort of reaction and use that as an excuse to invade and march through the south. Russian troop and armor build ups are reportedly taking place in Belarus. Want to bet that Friday is *very* interesting?

Johnathan, Rotten, et al - Your breast beating and calls for military action are simply suicidal. With our over extended military, our flat lined economy (which is going to get much much worse, by the way), we are running on empty. We have NO conventional forces with which to respond. Our option is to rely on NATO and those allies have been harmed by our preditory Wall Street traders and those poionous mortgage packages and other exotic financial instrumens. What makes you so certain that anyone is going to come to the rescue of the swine that wrecked their economy? Whole town's in Norway, banks in Germany, factories in Sweden, have been wrecked by American investors. We are hated, almost as much as the Russians, throughout Europe....maybe not by the leaders, but certainly by the average man in the street. So what do we have to stop the Russian's? A nuclear threat? Send in the air force where Indian and Russian H1-B workers have already stolen the plans for our stealth and weapons technologies, transferred them to the Russians where they have already devleoped and deployed countermeasures, where our planes will be shot out of sky? Or, cruise missiles with the same downside? I'll bet you anything that the Russian's call that bet. Then, we face Armaggedon, total anniliation. The sad fact is, Bush an Rove, for political gain, involved us in a disasterous war in Iraq and bled this country dry. McCain shows every sign of being just as weak, just as craven and shallow as Bush and the other NeoCon's. We're screwed. NATO will not survive this. The Russian's figured this out well in advance and know exactly what they are doing. When we allowed Rove to split this country down the middle, when we allowed Bush to run wild with his sophmoric politcial schemes, when we allowed Wall Street to and their friends in government to overheat the economy to the extent that it has melted down, we dug our own grave. Now we get to lie in it.

Russia's strengthening relationship with Lebanon has little significance. It is merely symbolic of the geopolitical signals that Russia would like to send to the world regarding its position in that region. Russian forces cannot pose a serious threat to Israel or other advanced countries in the hemisphere.

Tom,

Georgia is an independant nation with a long and troubled history with Russia. Georgia wants to enter into the transatlantic structure and join NATO. No one is forcing them. Georgia views an alliance with the West as more benefical to their future prosperity than appeasing Russia's flawed definition of their sphere of influence. By that same reasoning, Russia has no business preventing Georgia from joining, even if they preceive it as a security threat which is both incedulous and disingenuous. Russia's belligerance is the greatest threat to Russia.

If you really want to know the face of Russia, I would suggest looking at pravda.ru , especially the forums. Russia is a nationalistic, belligerant nation with a massive inferiority complex. They are also, as you correctly point out, a nation to be reckoned with. Not appeased and certainly not excused.

Tom,

I think we're actually in agreement on this one. We might get there two different ways, but the end result is the same.

It's probably safe to assume that all countries are interested in their security and Russia is no exception. They don't really trust us any more then we trust them.

There can be a lot said about Bush, but one thing only a tiny fraction of people would say is he is a good judge of character. He has proven over and over to hang on too long with people that either shouldn't be in a job or be trusted. Putin was no exception to this trait. The political cartoonists have been having a field day with Bush looking into Putin's soul. Loyalty is an admirable trait only to the point where it becomes misplaced.

What the incident in Georgia has brought home is the US can not dictate world affairs as if living in a vaccuum. We are basically powerless to interfere with Russia's invasion and probably regime change in Georgia. We can rattle a few sabers and create a few sound bites for the media, but there is little else we can do.

By Russian standards life has never been so good. They are expanding their economy at a rate of about 11% per year and are running large surpluses in their budget. (Now there's a novel concept) They have accelerated paying off their national debt and even today have the surpluses to retire all of it should they decide to. I know this new economic boom is spurred by oil, but according to our own analysts this will probably continue long term.

Russia has a population today of around 120 million people. This is down from close to 300 million at the end of the Soviet Union. They are also sitting on over 8,000 nukes and still have probably the second best military in the world. Do they have anything that approaches the US economy or US military weapon systems? Of course not, but that doesn't mean they aren't a presence to be reckoned with.

Putin has been telling Bush to back off meddling in the border states of Russia. He has told him this is seen in Russia as a hostile action. He has warned them their would be consequences to pay if it continued. Georgia is now the consequence. With Georgia comes a very clear message to other border states of the risk they take in engaging in activities seen as interferring with Russia's national security.

For the life of me I don't understand why we allowed this to happen. The US went to war with Iraq for less reason then Russia just invaded Georgia for. I'm not saying I agree with Russia's use of military force in Georgia, but I do understand it. Russia views their security interests with as much determination as the US views theirs and probably more so.

I firmly believe this whole conflict could have been avoided and it wasn't. I can not look at this situation and see anything other then a US diplomatic failure.

PG

First of all, my compliments to PG for wording this question exactly right. Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Union ‘the greatest geopolitical catastrophe’ of the twentieth century. Putin clearly longs for the good old days of the Soviet Empire. Many liberals also welcome Russia’s counter to US “imperialism” and consider that the US and the EU took advantage of a weakened Russia - after the collapse of the Soviet Union - to push NATO to Russia’s doorstep thus, in affect, forced Russia to invade Georgia to counter American (and EU) hegemony in eastern Europe.

Russia will likely continue to support regime change in Georgia, thus their next target is still their first target - to remove the pro American Saakashvili and put a pro Russia government in power. An important objective for Russia in their invasion of Georgia was to gain control of the two energy pipelines that run through Georgia. Europe is especially vulnerable to energy blackmail by Russia, and Russia already controls the flow of natural gas to Europe - but even more so now. Energy independence should be a top priority for Europe.

Russia also invaded Georgia to intimidate the pro American and potential NATO ally, Ukraine. Russia will carefully monitor Ukraine and discourage NATO membership. All former Russian client-states have been put on notice by the Russia invasion which, as a first priority of Russia, would like to regain her influence over her neighbors, especially while the US is in a weakened position both politically and militarily. There is little wonder (now) why former Russian satellite countries joined NATO and the EU.

In addition, Russia will continue to challenge the US globally - in the Middle East by supplying arms and a missile defense system to Iran, and in South America where Russia has signed an arms deal with the anti American Chavez.

Russia, flush with energy dollars, has rebounded economically, politically and militarily under the direction of Putin, but Putin should be careful not to miscalculate - as Georgia did - especially in the use of energy blackmail to bend potential foes politically which could lead to a new version of the cold war. The US and EU have been slow to acknowledge Russia’s ambition, but now they must use their leverage to counter Russian aggression - especially in eastern Europe.

What has to remember that during the communist regime, Russia, with all its problems, represented a country which was taken in consideration by all. When they invaded Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, all the big western powers made a lot of speeches but never reacted otherwise.
Today, Russia has an authoritarian regime controlled by an ex KGB chief - Vladimir Putin - who has given all his subordinates of the KGB, posts which control practically the country. Anyone who protests or criticizes the government is eliminated one way or the other. The liberal press has been completely eradicated, leaving only the press favourable to the government.
It must be noted that the Russian citizens who decide to live within these conditions can enjoy a freedom to work and travel, and the improved economic situation of their country.
The Georgian 'war' was really started by a very stupid move from the georgian president, who gave Russia the excuse to intervene militarily and defeat the Georgian army, which hoped that Russia would not move the day of the Olympic games opening and that they would obtain the backing of the USA and the European Union. Finally, Russia did exactly what they wanted, whilst the USA and the European Union made strong verbal declaration and no more. Thus Russia proved that the world has to take them in consideration and that they cannot be treated as they were after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Consequently, being an authoritarian regime they have an advantage on the democratic regimes, and will defend its interests at all times.

Good post by Vic Van meter. I do not see Russia on a rampage. I see this as an isolated incident. I do not see Russia trying to reassert an empire similar to the soviet by force. The soviet empire came into existence by an ideology (marxism). In the absence of the ideology there is little Russia can do to rebuild an empire the size of the Soviet. All it can do is chew at little pieces of former soviet empire here and there and try to convince former soviet pieces of similarity of outlook.

Vic van Meter writes: "One thing PostGlobal does that irritates me is asks a question that should come after a more critical one is answered. Before we ask, "who is next?" we should be asking, "what is Russia doing."

I totally agree with Vic.

By asking the above question, one assumes what Russia is doing is a foregone conclusion. The view that Russia is on a rampage is then reinforced by simply having everyone speculate arbitrarily on "who is next".

To put it mildly, that common, very widespread technique is not in the least conducive to critical thinking.

The art of diplomacy is a two way street. Nothing epitomizes this statement any better then Kennedy's removal of ballistic missiles from Turkey in ending the Cuban missile crisis. Putin did not mince words with Bush when he told him to back off in installing the missile shield in Eastern Europe and to stop prompting Georgia's NATO membership. Did our self-righteous nitwit listen? Of course not. He's George Bush and he knows better then the rest of the planet what should and shouldn't be done.

Russia has always been and will continue to be in the future a country that is in a precarious geographical position. It has been invaded many times over the centuries from both the west and the east. Let us not forget approximately half of the 50 million people who died in WWII were Russians. Russia was devastated by WWII and is only today finally beginning to rebound from a war that ended over 60 years ago. Russian leaders take their security seriously and who can blame them?

To the best of my knowledge the prevailing wisdom has always been Russia wanted Eastern Europe to buffer their homeland from future invasions from the West. The cost of that occupation and the arms race both combined to drain resources from an economy that could ill afford the expenditures and was collapsing under the strain.

The eventual break up of the Soviet Union has done nothing to ease their security fears. If anything it has heightened them. So while the US has the Monroe Doctrine still in place telling foreign powers not to play in our backyard Russia is just supposed to sit back and let Bush play in their backyard? On one hand we were ready to go to war over Russia sending missiles to Cuba. This was scene as a security threat to the US. How is it any different when the US/NATO set up military installations on the Russian borders? Why wouldn't they respond?

The more any American Administration pushes to westernize the border countries of Russia and use those countries for military purposes the more the Russians will respond. Putin told Bush this point blank. There was no ambiguity in his speech. Unfortunately, "The Nitwit Decider" doesn't understand plain English. Virtually any college freshman who has taken Russian history could have predicted Russia's response to Georgia's military action.

This brings me to a question that just begs to be answered. Did the president of Georgia tell Washington he was going to send his military into Ossetia? If he did not that alone is a major reason not to allow Georgia into NATO. Who needs a loose canon? If they did tell Washington what in the world was the US thinking? Did they really think Russia would just sit back and take it? If this is the case Condi Rice should resign today for being less informed then a college freshman.

Ukraine, if any. I wish there was more to say on this, but if you were going to make a play on the rest of the world and show your swagger, you don't do it by establishing alliances across the world in Central America. Unfortunately for Russia, the only thing they have in common with the local enemies of the Americans is that they do not particularly like Americans. Most of the other points are moot. It is tempting to think of a rekindling of the Cuban/Russian alliance, but I doubt that location makes a great deal of difference in the world of global surveillance anymore. Russia probably still has spies operating in America anyway.

One thing PostGlobal does that irritates me is asks a question that should come after a more critical one is answered. Before we ask, "who is next?" we should be asking, "what is Russia doing." I think it's tempting to see this solely as a power play in Russia against the Americans. That kind of worldview vanished a long time ago, and being an American, it does get very irritating after a while to be told that the entire world revolves around what we do. It especially irritates me when Americans do it. So don't mind the agitation if it's coming through.

Truth be told, America probably isn't Russia's largest problem yet. Probably a sizeable amount of Americans don't even know Georgia is a country, they think it's just an American state. Let's face it, America might not like Georgia getting razed, but it isn't a death blow.

Think about the target. Georgia is probably the one of its former satellite countries it has the most chance of getting away with. If Russia wanted to show off its power and start a conflict with America, it would make more sense to hit somewhere more important and more politically threatening. The fact that Georgia was invaded, not Poland, not even Ukraine, means that if Russia is making a play for power, the government is doing its best to pick somewhere low-profile.

If anything, it is a reminder that America has some global interests in central Europe, but that America is very, very far away when the rent comes to play. Russia isn't saying, "we are the power here," but rather, "we are the power here, too."

So my best guess is that Russia goes quiet for at least the next year or so unless something drastic happens. Sometimes, you just remind the world you are around. It isn't right, and it isn't pretty, but that's just how it works. A lot of people were killed over global positioning, as if the governments of the world were playing a giant game of Risk. It happens all the time. Larger, more self-important countries go invading smaller neighbors on shaky grounds, such as internal tensions, and an awful lot of people die. As an American, I think it's terrible when another government acts like ours.

The most logical place for the Russia to move will be in the northern hemisphere bordering Japan. They already have the disputes on some deserted islands and presently the area is very quite and Russia can easily either claim or move its naval ships to the area.

they will have quite support fron North Korea. Although US presence in Japan and South Korea is avilable but I think if Russia acts then they will be caught up in surprise and they can not challenge Russia for an all out war

Tom Miller1 writes : "We are going on the 4th or 5th day of the agreement between the EU and the President of Russia to withdraw from Georgia and instead the Soviet Union, er Russia moved forward deeper into Georgia territory."

Tom, please check your facts: it has been reported time and again that there has never been any deadline agreed upon for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia.

Just like with climate shift after the G-8 summit: something should be done sometime... but what, specifically, and when, exactly, remains an open question. Those people like to pride themselves, in such a case, of what they call their "flexibility"...

The next step is already in place in South Ossetia. It's a missile installation designed to take out Tbilisi installed today.

Does anyone else think the missile installation should be completed in Poland asap? And even there it's intercept missiles, not offensive weapons as Russia has installed in South Ossetia.

And to those apologists for Russia. We are going on the 4th or 5th day of the agreement between the EU and the President of Russia to withdraw from Georgia and instead the Soviet Union, er Russia moved forward deeper into Georgia territory.

Russia = Putin = KGB = Soviet Union is becoming crystal clear.

An interesting post on the BBC that proves the point I have been making about Wall Street investors being treasonous swine. This from an AMERICAN investor in Moscow:
In answer to a post from a Norwegian reader who advocated cutting off trade with Russia over it's invasion of Georgia -
"I work in Moscow for a big international company...don't listen to our propaganda. Putin's doing good things...In the office nobody even talks about the war, and nobody's changing plans. HUGE investment's coming in 2009
cheers"

The Ukraine is the most likely target. If they get away with it, and they WILL, because Bush and the other nutcases from the NeoCon-Fox New right have bled this country dry with their phony war on terror and by their turning Wall Street’s bandits loose on us and the world. When confronted with a genuine enemy, they are impotent. Russia will invade Poland, using the Ukrainian corridor as a second front/access point into Poland. Depending on the reaction of the U.S. and Europe (likely a lot of squawking and empty threats), they will either back out with us rewarding them for not completely humiliating us or they will continue on into Belarus, Lithuania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, etc. And, don't forget China! It has territorial ambitions, too. Begin with those oil rich islands claimed by the Philippians, Taiwan, and a sort of reverse march up the Pacific island chain we marched to Japan on in World War II.

We've seen this all before. Unfortunately our leaders aren't just criminally incompetent; they are supporter by a lot of delusional partisan fools that prize money over the survival of this country, over even their own survival. Morons.

"What's the next likely target of Russia's reassertion of power?" --- That question is a trap.

As phrased, that short question can only be viewed as part of the systematic campaign under way and likely to gain momentum, to convince Americans that Russia is the latest world menace. It serves the purpose of helping rally ever insecure Americans behind a "strong" belliquous... "leader", as the presidential campaign moves to its last stretch.

Short term, Russia can be expected to act more and more resolutely to defend its interests along its borders. If provoked (as has been going on for quite some time) and forced to, it will rise to the challenge and position itself to defend the Motherland successfully, no matter what. In the business of intimidating and of bullying anybody and everybody internationally, there are limits not to be overstepped.

Russia and Russians did not, like others did, profit from WWII; they fought it and, at the cost of more than 20 million dead, prevailed against 75% of the coalesced enemy forces on the Eastern Front. Having known war at home, on their own soil, they know what the threat of war means and what they are getting into. We, alas, do not, anymore than we did when moving "forward" into Vietnam, "forward" into Afghanistan, "forward" into Iraq, anymore than we would, were we to move "forward" into Iran (directly or by "proxy").

Long term, in this multipolar world, Russia is likely to enter into new alliances that may not be perceived here as in the best interests of the West in general, least of all of this country in particular.

Internationally, increased antagonism on our part toward Russia will only accelerate the development of the nascent post-American, post-Western world order.

It has been said that there was no greater calamity than to underestimate the enemy.

Yet how calamitous it is to go as far as doing everything possible to make enemies in the hope of holding on to power, if only a little longer!

Whilst Russia may have made certain tactical gains, I am yet unconvinced that Russia has effectively achived any strategic objecives in the current Caucus Conflict.

Clearly Russia intended to prevent Georgia and other satellite ex-soviet nations from joining NATO - they have likely acceplerated that process. Moreover, the need and certainty that a missle-defence shield being deployed in Poland(however technically unfeasble) has never been more solidified.

One thing is certain - Europe is as impotent as even and still lacks the moral fortitude to accomplish anything redeeming.

The next step of russia to assert his power would be

1.to stop the installation of NATO led anti missile system in poland.
2.To block the American led move on IRAn
3.More close ties with china
4.TAking more closer ties with central Aisan and islamic world
5.Entry in WTO
6.block the UNO move to give more time to USA in IRAQ.This will be like American demand to vacate georgia
7More and more controll on energy resources to put American and allies compnay out of Russian dominance.
8 More support to cuba ,Afghanistan and pakistan against west.

Hopefully they are not as greedy as we are and will appropriately consolidate their gains.