THE QUESTION

Seymour Hersh reports a $400 million U.S. covert action program against Iran. On a scale of 1 to 10, what's the likelihood of an American or Israeli military attack on Iran before Jan. 20 (Inauguration Day), and why? For extra points, name the date.

Posted by David Ignatius on June 30, 2008 6:07 PM

FROM THE PANEL

Originally from Pakistan, Anwer Sher is based in Dubai and writes for Gulf News, Khaleej Times and Emirates Today. His varied career experience includes banking, consulting, and real estate development. He has a Masters degree in International Relations.

U.S. or Israeli Strike Likely

The Bush Administration would like to have the proverbial shot at Iran – but they would be best not to repeat the mistakes they’ve made in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Posted by Anwer Sher Dubai, UAE | 23 COMMENTS
Jul 7, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Lamis Andoni is a Middle East consultant for Al Jazeera, the Qatar-based news station. She has been covering the Middle East for 20 years. She has reported for the Christian Science Monitor, the Financial Times and the main newspapers in Jordan. She was a professor at the Graduate School in UC Berkeley.

Bush’s Farewell Includes Attack on Iran

Before he leaves office, Bush and his administration will plant the seeds for war, or cause an explosion that will rock Iran.

Posted by Lamis Andoni Doha, Qatar | 22 COMMENTS
Jul 7, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Yossi Melman is a senior commentator for the Israeli daily Haaretz. He specializes in intelligence, security, terrorism and strategic issues. An author of seven books on these topics, his most recent book, The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran was published recently by Carroll & Graf.

Israel Won't Move Without U.S. Approval

An attack on Iran is unlikely – unless the country makes a cautious decision and America approves.

Posted by Yossi Melman Tel Aviv, Israel | 28 COMMENTS
Jul 2, 2008 at 4:09 PM
Dr. Ali Ettefagh serves as a director of Highmore Global Corporation, an investment company in emerging markets of Eastern Europe, CIS, and the Middle East. He is the co-author of several books on trade conflict, resolution of international trade disputes, conflicts in letters of credit, trade-related banking transactions, sovereign debt, arbitration and dispute resolutions and publications specific to the oil and gas, communication, aviation and finance sectors. Dr. Ettefagh is a member of the executive committee and the board of directors of The Development Foundation, an advisor to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, and an advisor to a number of European companies. Dr. Ettefagh speaks Persian (Farsi), English, German, French, Spanish, Italian, Arabic and Turkish.

Memo to Uncle Sam: Iran Is Not Your Enemy

Americans’ ill-informed perception of Iran is America’s most visible and destructive enemy.

Posted by Ali Ettefagh Tehran, Iran | 116 COMMENTS
Jul 1, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Leon Krauze is a Mexican blogger and a founder of letraslibres.com.

Attack On Iran? It Won't Happen

Three reasons not to worry: the economy, North Korea, and John McCain.

Posted by Leon Krauze Mexico | 37 COMMENTS
Jul 1, 2008 at 10:14 AM
Miklós Vámos is a Hungarian novelist, screenwriter and talk show host. He is one of the most read and respected writers in his native Hungary. He has taught at Yale University on a Fulbright fellowship, served as The Nation’s East European correspondent, worked as consultant on the Oscar-winning film Mephisto, and presented Hungary’s most-watched cultural television show. Vámos has received numerous awards for his plays, screenplays, novels and short stories, including the Hungarian Merit Award for lifetime achievement. The Book of Fathers is considered his most accomplished novel and has sold 200,000 copies in Hungary.

Leaders Act Like Kindergartners On War

Following this logic, the likelihood of an attack on a scale of 1 to 10 is actually an 11—at least.

Posted by Miklos Vamos Budapest, Hungary | 8 COMMENTS
Jul 1, 2008 at 10:02 AM
Daoud Kuttab is a Palestinian journalist. He was born in Jerusalem in 1955. He is a former Ferris Professor of Journalism at Princeton University in the United States. Mr. Kuttab is the former director of the Institute of Modern Media at Al Quds University in Ramallah, Palestine and the founder of AmmanNet, the Arab world's first internet radio station. His personal web page is www.daoudkuttab.com.

Covert Ops Don't Mean War

A country ready to attack doesn't make a huge PR campaign about its plans.

Posted by Daoud Kuttab Jerusalem/Amman, Jordan | 27 COMMENTS
Jul 1, 2008 at 9:36 AM

READER RESPONSE

» Anju Chandel | 100% if the White House incumbent from 20th Jan 2009 decides to appoint George W(ar) Bush as his foreign policy advisor! Otherwise, least likely. Not...
» Serr Grandi | I think we have a 50% chance of an American attack against Iran. Whether that attack will be a joint operation by US and Israel is not very important....
» Neil Kuchinsky | Israel has no choice but to attack Iran. Few believed Hitler when he pledged that he would annihilate the Jews. With Iranian leaders pledging t...
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