The Dollar in Distress


The dollar is reaching new lows this week: it's down 16 percent against the Euro over the last two years. Does this reflect fundamental weakness in the U.S. economy, or just a temporary blip in the market?

Posted by David Ignatius and Fareed Zakaria on October 30, 2007 8:50 AM

Readers’ Responses to Our Question (40)

Margswia :

In those unfortunate countries, indeed, where men are continually afraid of money of the country because in that there can seldom be much

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Tom Wonacott :

Salamon

“…It is as abhorrent to call MUSLIMS ISLAMOFASHIST, as it is to BURN SYNAGOGUES in various cities of the world. No Country or person can attribute derogatory terms to 25+ % of the world's population due to the actions of a few individuals…”

I agree. I try to limit the term (which I don’t use often) to the “actions of a few“, however, in my opinion, the term applies to the Iranian government based on their policies both domestic and foreign.

Thanks for the post.

Salamon :

MikeB:

Your last post is pertinent, and most probably does not really describe the mess in the USA, it is unfortunate that the Voters were so easily misled in the last election, and the Supreme Court's outside the Constitution action in re Gore had such maloicious effects.

There is n article cited below which specifies the major problems of USA economy stricktly related to the unholy mess perpetrated in the FINANCIAL SECTOR, the effect of which most likely a major Depression and the loss of reserve fiat US$.

PLEASE READ:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IK03Dj03.html


TOM W:

I read your last posting. To a certain extent I agree with you re Democrats. On the OTHER HAND I posit to you that the major ANTI_AMERICAN COHORT is the one residing in the WHITEHOUSE, for they aided and abetted the destruction of USA ECONOMY, ARMED FROCEs, and MORAL STANDING.

I Wish to emphasize to you that there is a chasm between the meaning of anti ISRAEL, where this is in regard to the ZIONIST GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL, and anti senitism, which is against JEWS,AND/OR ARABS they being the only SEMITIC TRIBES within the homo spaiens species.

It is as abhorrent to call MUSLIMS ISLAMOFASHIST, as it is to BURN SYNAGOGUES in various cities of the world. No Country or person can attribute derogatory terms to 25+ % of the world's population due to the actions of a few individuals. This applies as well to to smaller factions such as AFRICAN AMERICANS, Roman Catholics, BORN AGAIN CHRISTIANS, ORTHODOX JEWS, etc ad infinitum as to any other sub-population of Speceship Earth.

The biggest fault of your country stems from the STUPIDITY of the SUPREME COURT, which intentionally substituted the notion of FREE SPEECH to describe the virulent sickness of your society, the ability of BIG MONEY to influense ELECTION OUT COMES, and to corral [for all intents and purposes] the wellfare of the nation to be subjugated to the wellfare of the moneyed class.

Weep with me and many others that such devastation can occur to the detriment of many fine and upstanding moral esidents of the USA.

Tom Wonacott :

BobL

You'll remember from your "a marine at the wall" post that I said I wouldn't label Americans as anti American and for the most part I've kept to that because of exactly what you said in your post yesterday. That being said, the statement, “anti Americanism is on the rise because of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, or the threatening rhetoric regarding Iran” I believe is a true statement (wouldn‘t you? Ask Zoltan), so in my opinion, even though “anti American” is a broad term, it is useful in describing how people OUTSIDE the US feel about US government policies. It’s no different than describing people from Kosovo as pro American.

It is just a fact of life that “anti Israel” and “anti American” (referencing their/our current government policies) and the "left" in many instances over lap (not in your case, however since you are Israel-neutral. OK, I'm not sure how to get around the anti American even when I mean just current policies in reference to American liberals.). It’s an important connection and a hypocritical one to say the least (in my opinion), since no one threatens a boycott over the issue of Tibet, Chechnya, China’s blood for oil policy in the Sudan and so on. Do you have any doubt, for example, that liberals would be coming out of the woodwork to call for a boycott if the Olympics were held in Israel? I am, more or less, interested in provoking a response from liberals on why that is the case.

Anti American is a statement AGAINST US policy, but “embolden the enemy” is a RESULT of government policy or rhetoric. It really is no different than “creates more terrorist” which is not only fair game in political discussion but is also the RESULT of government (or Vatican) policy. Appeasement is another term which is a result of policy. I don’t see why you have a problem with "embolden the enemy".

I appreciate your neutrality on the political parties in the US, but I am not. To me the Democrats have used the war in Iraq to gain politically just like national surveillance and other issues, but when it comes time to put up or shut up, they do neither. Trust me, I am as anti Democratic Party as I can possibly be at this point, but I also understand why people are anti Republican based on the last six years…

So in conclusion, if anti American and anti Israel turn up in a post to you, just chew on my ass, but don’t take it personally as it is never directed at you.

Yousuf Hashmi :

Currency fluctuation is an interesting blend of economy with the politics

When the currency falls then the governments describe this as a good omen that the exports will be attractive and when situation turns around it is reflected as the strength of economy.

US economy no doubt is very large and robust. it can and have survived very big shocks with out any big dent. therefore the current face will also pass out smoothly.

this is interesting to note that when ever the US goes to war and the end game started then the $ comes under stress. But immidiately the "day after" US economy gets a new kick and surge high to new bench marks

So the question posted has both meanings . yes it is a bubble which will fizzle out sooner or later but on other side the US economy is definately now under stress and the weakness now visible to outsiders as well

for those faithful countries who are tied up with $ the business will be as usual

D. Hodara :

The dollar weakness is the result of the following reasons :

1 - when Clinton was president, the situation of the US debt was improving and the projections showed that there would be a surplus during the next years substantially improving the country’s debt
2 - as soon as Bush became president he decided to offer to the richest portion of the US population tax advantages that proved very expensive to the budget
3 - the Bush administration decided to go to war in Afghanistan and Iraq without a proper plan and projections and was dragged into a situation which has cost hundreds of billions of dollars. With the decision under item 2, it has depleted completely its treasury and was forced to print dollars and borrow a few billions of dollars every day of the year to cover its deficits
4 - because of much cheaper costs in some emerging countries, the US, which has reduced its industrial and manufacture powers in many sectors, increased tremendously its imports, improving the foreign countries economies whilst creating enormous deficits, which again were covered by printing and borrowing dollars.
5 - the US financial markets developed at full speed, without real safeguards and in 2000 the technology bubble created a tremendous drop in the stock markets around the world, creating huge losses. In 2007 to create more profit for it, the financial and banking systems invented derivatives and sub prime mortgage packages which looked very attractive, considering the low interest rates. This was done without serious consideration from the Federal Reserve and were mostly incomprehensible to the investors. Today, we se this evidence when we consider that professionals like Merril Lynch and numerous other banks, in the US and the world, have been losing staggering amounts on the sub prime mortgages. How can one assess the real value of the professional abilities of all the bankers, brokers, analysts and economists, who are supposed to guide the investors. Greed was more important than security for the investors.
6 -the oil prices have been climbing constantly for the past few years, due to the increased consumption. Emerging economies, like China and India, have increased enormously their energy needs, and increased substantially their oil imports. Therefore, we cannot imagine that the tight energy situation can really improve, thus putting a real strain on the US economy
7 – in order to improve the ecological problem, it was decided to create alternative energies. One alternative would be obtained by using agricultural products, thus increasing the prices of a number of commodities, putting a new strain on the consumers’ buying power and increasing inflation
8 – the increased consumption in the world have pushed the metal prices to new highs, and the increased price of gold indicate the fear of inflation and the future
9 – the real estate situation in the US will take sometime to recover and in the meantime be a negative item for the dollar
10- the leaders of our countries have to be more attentive to the needs and interests of the majority rather than to the minorities or their own personal interests

Therefore, unless there is a strong reaction to the blind race towards profits, a better understanding of the mechanisms of all new derivatives and better protection of the consumers and investors, we are heading towards a very ugly situation. Consequently, it is difficult to see an early improvement of the strength of the dollar.

MikeB :

Salamon - Interesting and likely true. Right now, the U.S. government is completely out of control and it's not going to get any better. The Bush Whitehouse and most of the candidates running for office are all but wholly own subsidiaries of large multinational corporations. The current front-runner, Hillary Clinton, has been chiefly funded by the very wealthy, by Indian and Chinese connected companies and outsourcing firms. Her economic policies and her corporate connections are indistinguishable from Bush's. Also, I am noticing a troubling trend where women with some sort of grudge against men, or *a* man, support Ms. Clinton out of some notion of gaining revenge. The male bashing, snide cutting remarks about men and all things male, is getting out of hand. Never mind "issues". She doesn't discuss them and most of her twisted and angry supporters don’t care about them anyways. It's all carefully managed hysteria, fear, anger, and unleashing long pent up rage. God help us all.

As I predicted, the Fed's interest rate cut fed the Wall Street maggots for exactly one day. Then, the slide continued. A close examination will show that there are plenty of investors making money, however. It’s just that they are all purchasing Chinese stocks right now and pushing American companies to offshore technology and production. So, the Wall Street "economy" is increasingly disconnected from that experienced by the normal working class family. These two segments of society literally live in different worlds. The dollar fell to a new all time low again today, as it has in each of the preceding days this past two months, oil is approaching $100 a barrel and climbed above $96 for a time today, the international bond market has completely severed tied to the dollar, our trade deficit is at an all time high and still growing, and the flood of foreign capital fleeing this country is undermining our ability to sustain our debt. No one has an inkling of what to do. The investors still want their bonuses and ridiculous salaries and the morons at home cannot imagine surviving without those cheap Chinese goods and those low low WalMart prices. It will, of course, come crashing down around our ears. Likely, early next year. All that remains is for the Chinese or the Japanese to ramp up their selling of dollars to an extent that no one can ignore it any longer. It's depressing to admit it, but this country is toast and the west is likely going to go down with it.

MikeB :

Salamon - Interesting and likely true. Right now, the U.S. government is completely out of control and it's not going to get any better. The Bush Whitehouse and most of the candidates running for office are all but wholly own subsidiaries of large multinational corporations. The current front-runner, Hillary Clinton, has been chiefly funded by the very wealthy, by Indian and Chinese connected companies and outsourcing firms. Her economic policies and her corporate connections are indistinguishable from Bush's. Also, I am noticing a troubling trend where women with some sort of grudge against men, or *a* man, support Ms. Clinton out of some notion of gaining revenge. The male bashing, snide cutting remarks about men and all things male, is getting out of hand. Never mind "issues". She doesn't discuss them. It's all carefully managed hysteria, fear, anger, and unleashing long pent up rage. God help us all.

As I predicted, the Fed's interest rate cut fed the Wall Street maggots for exactly one day. Then, the slide continued. A close examination will show that there are plenty of investors making money, however. It’s just that they are all purchasing Chinese stocks right now and pushing American companies to offshore technology and production. So, the Wall Street "economy" is increasingly disconnected from that experienced by the normal working class family. These two segments of society literally live in different worlds. The dollar fell to a new all time low again today, as it has in each of the preceding days this past two months, oil is approaching $100 a barrel and climbed above $96 for a time today, the international bind market has completely severed tied to the dollar, our trade deficit is at an all time high and still growing, and the flood of foreign capital fleeing this country is undermining our ability to sustain our debt. No one has an inkling of what to do. The investors still want their bonuses and ridiculous salaries and the morons at home cannot imagine surviving without those cheap Chinese goods and those low low WalMart prices. I will, of course, come crashing down around our ears. Likely, early next year. All that remains is for the Chinese or the Japanese to ramp up their selling of dollars to an extent that no one can ignore it any longer. It's depressing to admit it, but this country is toast.

Salamon :

MikeB:

as you probably had high security clearence [presumed form some of your previous postings] I would think that you would like to read the following article. HAs nothing to do with today's discussion point, however it is in relation to the hegemony question, a hegemony which can not last without the US$ being fiat reserve currency, a status it is about to lose, if I am not mistaken [1-2 years or an attack on Iran]:

http://www.counterpunch.org/lindorff11012007.html enjoy!

Cristina :

I've seen this before..

2003 Last Updated: Wednesday, 19 November, 2003
Dollar falls to all-time euro low
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3282917.stm

2005 -- from the February 17, 2005 edition
How US suffers when the dollar falls http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0217/p17s01-cogn.html

2007 -- it's down 16 percent against the Euro over the last two years. (Postglobal up there)

The dollar has devalued 18,5% since early this year against the Brazilian Real ($1 = R1,7) the lowest exchange rate in 7 years....last time the exchange rate was at this level was March 2000.

What is next? Is this time the all-time low...again? Don't think so.

shar walker :

Dear Friends:

Nanotechs in Mexico are illegally using this for governments. They can paint the new Olympian and other areas of China red and green using nanotechnology and do seeding that will cause tusami and cyclones in the Asian countries and mental control even when they are not their.

Are you at Risk? What about all other nations of the world?

Men women children rapings with this and imput and sepertion of the brain with metal plastic and small screws.

Forced to think their way.


For economic and science gain. in all areas and control. Invasaian. Canada?

They take ideas out of the minds in schools and control police and spies and all terrorists and also they control development 24/7. This is not the USA doing this. They use some person who speaks one language and connect or tack on and can use several inclusive of doctors. The threat is world wide.

You've got the message and you know the drill all governments are on to you now. Play it now you SOB. Go to where the sun does not shine.


Vic van Meter :

Zoltar, I'm not firing nukes anywhere. Thanks.

And you're putting a lot of emphasis on the dollar's fall when, really, this kind of thing happens to all currencies everywhere at some point.

If you're waiting for the United States to go into a tailspin, keep waiting. I know I'm still going to eat at Wendy's tonight.

And MikeB, same deal here in Ohio. There are a lot of things that need changing, but our biggest campaign contributors in the area are The Limited (Wexner's monster at Easton) and Nationwide (insurance monster EVERYWHERE). Tell you a story about Wexner first.

There was a downtown renovation project involving building a mall downtown that they later called The City Center. One of Ohio's big problems is that it really developed heavily after the development of mass-produced automobiles but before those ideas were recognized to be uneconomically viable. As it stands, we have a huge downtown commercial zone where most people work, but a low residential population. This means a lot of traffic, lots of cars on the road contributing to our polution (we're getting smog alerts here, even though we're in an open plains area), and a monstrous system of highways in constant need of refitting, upgrade, and addition.

Les Wexner, as the story goes, got fed-up with not getting what he wanted out of City Center. So he got rid of his assets there and went northeast of Columbus a ways to build the Easton Towne Center. That's a monolithic shopping mall covering more square footage than most of the surrounding neighborhoods. Wexner had more money than the city of Columbus and was located near a highway (the I-270 exchange with Morse Rd). So people could ride over to Easton and jump off into it immediately rather than drive downtown to the revitalization mall.

City Center floundered, and Wexner not only built up a new suburban community outside the beltway (New Albany if you're still interested). And Wexner, I think just to show how much power he has, somehow convinced the city to build an 'express exit ramp' to connect New Albany to Easton. Let me tell you, this city has some HUGE highways and roads, and even I was shocked. This "exit ramp" is basically its own three lane, one-way highway running alongside I-270. It's completely ridiculous, and it's a demonstration of how corporate interests and government agencies have begun working together in a way that is detrimental to the overall good.

COTA (our local public transit system) is a wreck. Plans have gone up onto the drawing board to build a light-rail system, a subway system, or even just to expand the bus routes. But because everyone is currently in cars, they don't pay COTA nearly enough to get any of these done. In fact, they can't even keep COTA's current lines all running. Our public transit is crapping out on us because public interests in Columbus keep pulling farther and farther out of the city core.

And then, inexplicably, we complain about the cost of gas.

There are three big things that governments on all three levels need to do to start building our domestic policy to something more economically, ecologically, and reasonably viable. First, we absolutely have to start emphasizing public transit and get people to stop relying on suburban residential projects as a market. Second, as a connected idea, we have to start emphasizing densified housing solutions. There is a wealth of inner-city abandonment in many of the larger cities that, if they were built correctly, could create dense housing situations that lessen the unpopular pitfalls of other community housing situations (as a disclaimer, my interest in architecture is all about this kind of housing solution). Third and most importantly, we HAVE to get our budgets under control. Our bloated administrations and legislaters refuse to look far down the road towards far-reaching consequences. At this point, democratic purgatory (tax and spend) is looking more viable than republican Hell (cut taxes and spend). But the best approach at this point is to drastically cut spending in a way that we haven't seen since reductionist governments of decades past.

There are some social situations that will require spending to solve on the part of the government (social security, the status and work of illegal immigrants, and the nightmare that is American health care), but we have huge spending issues to deal with, particularly in our war expenditures and "pork" money doled out by congressmen as favors.

None of this would stop the decline of the dollar, which is inevitable given our circumstances, but it would certainly give us leverage when our imports grow more expensive and our exports become more viable. When we become an export market rather than an import market again, we can't ship houses overseas. It's time to figure out how to deal with limiting our imports (if OIL jumps out when I say imports, you're doing well keeping up) and making our exports much easier to market.

All this starts with government. I'm waiting to see what our current batch of candidates are planning to do about the money-eating monster of a government we have now. Unfortunately, talk of foreign affairs is trumping domestic affairs in this election, so it's getting too hard to pick apart their economic plans.

BobL-VA :

Tom,

I’d drop the anti-American claims against liberals from your repertoire if I was you. One can believe in defining the American experience very differently and still be pro-American. El Qaeda is anti-American, liberals aren’t. There is a huge distinction here worth noting. Just one of the things that has made America prosperous is the competition and difference in views among it’s citizens.

I have stated before and I’ll state again. I don’t have any problems with conservatives. I have problems with incompetence. I don’t hate Bush because he’s a conservative. I hate him because he’s a very bad one. For the life of me I can not understand why anyone in the conservative movement would want to back this president any longer. He’s just a really bad president. I never felt the same way about his father or Reagan. However, I did have similar misgivings about Jimmy Carter. I thought he was a well intentioned ineffective president. I would have loved to have Carter for a grandfather as everything I heard and seen about him was good and decent. As a president he didn’t deserve to be reelected as he did a rather poor job.

You will also notice in none of my posts have talked poorly about any of the republican candidates running for president. I might not agree with their stances and have the right to vote for someone who is more closely aligned with the way I think, but I have nothing bad to say about any of them. I think anyone who is willing to go through the hell one has to go through to seriously run for president deserves respect regardless of political affiliation. Once president, whoever that may be, I will judge them on their records and actions.

I don’t dislike republicans. I dislike Bush/Cheney. Come to think of it most of America dislikes them. However, at no time have I ever labeled either Cheney or Bush anti-American. Even though I firmly believe they have run the worst administration in the history of this country and are really bad at what they were elected to do I will never question their patriotism. Hence, when republicans/conservatives question whether liberals/democrats are anti-American or “embolden the enemy” I can only conclude it’s a technique used to pander to a base of morons who haven’t thought out the issue or even have a clue that this country was founded on political dissent. You can strongly dislike and individual for job performance and positions, but when you cross the line and label entire groups as bad Americans it presupposes that you actually know what good ones are. That scares me to death as it begs the question why should we have more then a one party system in our culture if a minority group, which the republicans are, already has the definitive answers for our society.


MikeB :

Vic van Meter _ You got one thing right, all of this isn't just Bush's nor the Republican's fault. In my local Oregon county (Lane), with thousands of people loosing their jobs, public employees of the local county and city governments had the gaul to give themselves nealy a 20% pay raise, have completely paid medical and dental benefits for themselves and their family, AND have the government even make their 6% retirement contribution! I also just got my property tax assessment. The government had it *increased* by 15%!!! That, in spite of the reality that housing prices are plummeting by an average of 22%.

Working men and women are targeted by con men and fraudulent business practices by our cell phone providers, by our banks and mortgage companies, our employers make off wih our retirement savings, our jobs are outsourced or we are displaced by illegal and legal guest workers, and government at all levels can do no more than reward themselves with outlandish pay and benefit increases.

The "misery index" indicates that government at all levels is ineffective and detrimental. The same can be said for private business. It used to be that these two watched each other. Now, however, they apparently work together and we are so much road kill.

daniel :

To Vic Van Meter from Daniel. Good post.

Zoltan :

Vic van Meter : "I was just waiting for all of you to panic."

I'm actually looking forward to the collapse of the dollar. "Bring'em on" as your Dumbster in Chief said. And I'm well aware that some of the trash is going to land "over here".

I just hope you're not firing nukes in a last gamble. Anything short of that I'll manage.


Vic van Meter :

I was just waiting for all of you to panic.

Everyone likes using the words "depression", "collapse", and other doomsday-related words. As if our economy hasn't suffered worse falls than this.

First of all, if you're angry about the bubble economies of the last decade or so, then this is exactly what you want. Finally our market should even out after years of soaring stock market prices and predictions. Everyone who was smart knew when to get out. I know I did. Made a killing off it, as well.

Now my money is moved into more stable assets as far as investment goes. You can still make money (or not lose as much) with this market upcoming. You just can't wait for another stock to go on a 100 pt hike to make everything better.

And finally, this one's not all Bush's bad. It's not even the government's bad. The economy isn't going into a depression, it's not going to collapse, and ten years from now you aren't going to remember these days for rationing.

Hiking energy prices, as you idiots like to ramble about, aren't anywhere NEAR where they're supposed to be considering all the protections on prices. In Europe, they're paying a LOT more for gas than we are here in the States. They seem to be doing just fine economically. Global opinion isn't nearly so bad that foreign investors are pulling their money out of the country because they don't like us. There are a LOT of American-based companies still doing quite well here. In fact, if anything is causing the decrease of the dollar against the Euro, it's the housing market, a largely domestic market.

You can pin it on Bush's spending, but we aren't going to feel the real effects of his shopping spree for many years to come (when interest catches up to our social security woes). So even that isn't an immediate indicator.

The reason our dollar is falling against Europe's Euro isn't just a product of America's failing housing empire, but also Europe's rising economic power. I remember not TOO many years ago that the idea of the EU was being lambasted because of their currency rate against the dollar. Well, Europe's a much surer bet nowadays and their currency is reflecting that. The dollar didn't fall to meet the Euro as much as the Euro rose to meet the falling dollar. Give credit where credit is due, the EU weathered the storm of their initial currency problems and are, collectively, rising to meet the United States.

I see a lot of people shivering in their boots about market declines. I heard the exact same thing when the Internet bubble was bursting. And America kept on moving. I imagine the Fed will cut interest a second time to meet inflation and just let this recession happen.

Think of it as a cleansing. We've put so much money into a lot of questionable business practices and theories and we have to revert back to the basics. We can't just wish up another bubble. We're going to have to toughen up, find ways around our worst problems, start paying our debts back now instead of later (which means tighten those belts, because taxes will rise), and generally come to grips with the fact that our economic booms don't keep going forever. Rise and fall. It's the way of the world.

And we'll rise again. It's a matter of time, patience, and adaptability. Just be ready, vote well, and don't panic. Some people have short memories and don't look back to before these big boom times in our economic history. We've had recessions before. They haven't collapsed the United States before. And this one's nowhere NEAR what our worst have been.

Gunther Steinberg :

The fall of the dollar was no surprise, considering how the Bush Administration has been running things. While backing a strong dollar early on, the dollar was allowed to fall by the irresponsible deficit spending and trade deficits that have been going on for years.
In anticipation, I invested a seizable chunk of my assets in European securities, anticipating the drop of the dollar vs. the Euro.In the past 10 years or so, the Euro has gone from $0.70/ Euro to the current $1.4406.
The dollar's fall is the sign that US economy is suffering pretty badly, all because we a "borrow and spend" administration, which sees nothing wrong with passing its errors on to another generation.
As Cheney said years ago: "Deficits don't matter".
He is wrong there as he was about being greeted as liberators in Iraq.
Dark times ahead.

Zoltan :

The collapse of the dollar... funny you should mention that, I'm just reading this article related to the subject (written by a US-American):

http://www.chuckcoppes.com/latest/petrodollar_warfare_collapse_of_u.s._dollar_imperialism_report.html

As for a 2-year long "blip", rather heavy "blip", isn't it ? Actually, the dollar is free-floating since the end of the Bretton-Woods system on the 15th august 1971, when the US government defaulted on it's debt in gold (before that, during the Bretton-Woods system, the dollar was convertible into gold, but the UD treasure didn't have enough reserves in gold to pay back the creditors). Since then, it is the petro-doller, and we only now see the end of the petro-dollar empire. That the end of the petro-dollar empire comes about the same time as the peak-oil shouldn't surprise us.

And the petro-dollar empire isn't the American Empire, but, unfortunately for many US-Americans, a totally independent, corrupt, greedy, agressive, manipulating evil entity. That evil empire has ramifications all over the World, including here in Europe (with a new proconsul: Sarkozy)

Anonymous :

Susenjit Guha, "Assurances form Alan Greenspan should allay any fears of the weakening dollar."

And, this would be the same Greenspan that super heated the markets to cover Bush's politcial a*s? The same one repsonsible for the dot-com bubble and subsequent burst? The nutty globalization philosopher who in large part is reposnisble for the current mess?

Excuse me. ANyone with half brain understands that a service based "economy" is a joke. It essentially involves a bunch of rich guys speculating on largely foreign currency and markets while everyone else serves burgers, wearing paper hats shipped directly from India.

The *depression* we are about to embark upon, one that will effect the U.K. and the E.U. also, is entirely due to "globalization" and corporate corruption. It will end when we cease shipping jobs and infrastructure to India and China and send back your "guest workers". Call it "protectionism", I call it putting Amercian before India and China and the rest of the world.

Susenjit Guha :

Assurances form Alan Greenspan should allay any fears of the weakening dollar.

He saw no danger, emphasizing infaltion to be a far major concern instead. And recovery of the US economy is nowhere in sight unless property prices pick up.

So far US goods and services were overpriced due to a strong dollar. Export of US commodities will now be far more competitive. Farmers will benefit from exports.

On the flip side, a weak dollar will make investors in US treasury jittery and send prospective governments and companies who wish to park their funds in the US, move away to greener pastures. Again, inputs for export material will be more expensive threatening to impact price competitiveness in sectors where imported inputs are imperative. US energy companies are bound to feel the heat over low refining margins. They need to report their profits in US dollars.

Salamon :

MIKEB:

your ideas in more explicit form can be found below:

http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/ARTICLE2/doodoo.html

Unfortunately this scenario indicated that the price USA citizens have to pay for past/present foolishness is very high.

DE Teodoru :

The economy is a summary of the psychiatric state of the nation. Bush is, as he said: PROOF THAT A "C" STUDENT CAN BE PRESIDENT. But he is also proof of what a "C" student president can do to a country. He asked himself: when did I love "Poppy and Mommy" most? Answer, when they violated all rules of logic, fairness and good sense and spoiled me rooten, giving me everything I wanted. So, since that's how they made me love them, I'm going to make all the slimes that contributed to my campaign love me by giving them everything that makes no sense, is not fair and even breaks the law. So here we are with America in the hands of "hedge fund" robber barons and short-sighted "C" students like George. They talk people into all sorts of stupid investments, taking their "commissions" off the top, because people just assume no one could be so stupid so they must know something that physicists and cosmologists don't know about the law of conservation of energy. So now the $ is shrinking in value because little theives are making $billions off the avarice of Viagra-kept-up geriatric America. No one is asking what will happen to the dollar if $3 trillions after we give up Iraq we still have not stolen all its oil. Afterall, Bush thinks that no matter how much blood and treasure he wastes trying to steal Iraq's oil, once people can fill-er-up their SUVs with cheap gas, they will remember him as a great president. Sooooo, we now have a "C" president and a "C" dollar. The concequences are obvious when you ask yourself: what do we in America produce so we don't have to buy it from abroad? China has more $ than we do; so if it decides to replace George Washington with Mao o the bill there's nothing was can do. We even have to import scientists and engineers because Americans concluded that since a dummy can be president, a dummy can get rich. So why bother studying math and science...you can always quell your doubts and fears with Bibble-babble!

DE Teodoru :

The economy is a summary of the psychiatric state of the nation. Bush is, as he said: PROOF THAT A "C" STUDENT CAN BE PRESIDENT. But he is also proof of what a "C" student president can do to a country. He asked himself: when did I love "Poppy and Mommy" most? Answer, when they violated all rules of logic, fairness and good sense and spoiled me rooten, giving me everything I wanted. So, since that's how they made me love them, I'm going to make all the slimes that contributed to my campaign love me by giving them everything that makes no sense, is not fair and even breaks the law. So here we are with America in the hands of "hedge fund" robber barons and short-sighted "C" students like George. They talk people into all sorts of stupid investments, taking their "commissions" off the top, because people just assume no one could be so stupid so they must know something that physicists and cosmologists don't know about the law of conservation of energy. So now the $ is shrinking in value because little theives are making $billions off the avarice of Viagra-kept-up geriatric America. No one is asking what will happen to the dollar if $3 trillions after we give up Iraq we still have not stolen all its oil. Afterall, Bush thinks that no matter how much blood and treasure he wastes trying to steal Iraq's oil, once people can fill-er-up their SUVs with cheap gas, they will remember him as a great president. Sooooo, we now have a "C" president and a "C" dollar. The concequences are obvious when you ask yourself: what do we in America produce so we don't have to buy it from abroad? China has more $ than we do; so if it decides to replace George Washington with Mao o the bill there's nothing was can do. We even have to import scientists and engineers because Americans concluded that since a dummy can be president, a dummy can get rich. So why bother studying math and science...you can always quell your doubts and fears with Bibble-babble!

Prof. Zubairi :

Sooner we stop fooling ourselves about US economy better it may be for us to recover. No one wants to admit we are beginning to pay for the war by declining dollar, at the pump and in declining real estate values. I predict a mild recession ( in reality not masked by stats )by 08. We need to stop war-mongering, stop printing dollar notes and bring the jobs back to the US before it is too late.( Dr.Zubairi)

"Red-Alarm"-to-the-world :

The World Please Wake Up!

China has poisoned the world as we all know!
Pls. rad this topic to see how dangerous China can bring deaths to the entire world! no matter what country you are living in!
Please read this terrible report at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/world/asia/31chemical.html?ex=1351569600&en=4513575d3aa47ea6&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Who on earth still love to buy Made In China products?

The deadly outcomes will prove to themselves!

Fluctuating of the dollar won't kill anyone! but poisonous Made In China products will kill you for sure!

Tom Wonacott :

BobL

From your last comment on the previous question:

I was thinking (before I saw your post) that you might take that comment wrong but it was a generalization (that I've said before). I cannot remember a comment that you've made that was anti Israel and, of course, I try not to call Americans anti American as you know (if I know they are American), but sometimes I do think that it applies but not in your case.

At any rate, I apologize but never meant that comment to be directed at you. I will continue to use the comment, however, because, in my opinion, the two go hand in hand.

BobL-VA :

I conur with with Vic Van Meter. Depressions cause panic and there are no, and I repeat no, economic indicators pointing to a depression. There are several indicators pointing towards a recession, but we've had them before and we'll have them again. Housing starts, home sales and consumer confidence are all way down today and that historically has lead to a recession. Recessions, while disconcerting, are never devastating to the economy and I know several economists who argue they are nothing but an inevitable economic flu.

Any time there is a hiccup in our economy the doom and gloomers start spreading rumors we're on the brink of disaster. When that doesn't turn out to be true they just simply wait for the next blip in the market places to predict it all over again. Very few people alive today can remember the Great Depression. Most of us over the age of 40 have heard stories about it from our relatives and we've certainly learned something about it in school, but few of us born in this country have ever experienced anything that remotely approaches that level of social upheaval and there is no indication now we will for any forseeable time in the future.

Obviously, the dollars slide on the international scene makes US goods and services more attractive to foreigners. It also makes tourism to the US more affordable. That's the upside. The down side is oil imports will cost us more and energy prices will rise. Our travel overseas will be more expensive to us. We will adjust.

I am incredibly bullish on the American economy and for the future prospects of this economy. We'll weather the impending recession and come out the other side and go on with business as usual.

mohammad allam :

The decline in the value of the Dollar are due to the following reasons.
1.The rise of many new countries economic growth and the availability of new market and investment opportunity better than America.
2 Deficit financing of the American administartion to wage war around the world.
3.The involment of American in the war around the world.
4 The unity march of europe for better economic and political stability and a good alternative than America for the people of the world.
5 Lack of trust of world people in American leadership.
6.American cheating to the oil producing countries by monopolising the oil production and distribution and Iraqi invasion shock.
7.Switching off the dollar prefence from islamic world to euro.As these islamic countries very much fearfull of the American onslaught.
8.Outsourcing of American income for different need like migrated people income to own nations.
9 shrinking of market for American product due to advance technological development in othe nation.
10.Iran episode of present time as people belive that it will be another failed adventure of America.
11 the military,civil technological development of other world.
12 last the loss of faith among the people in just leadership of America around the world.
13 the Muslim decision to not prefere the dollar around the world.
In my opinion it is not a decline of time being but a starting point for dollar to go below and below.

mohammad allam :

The decline in the value of the Dollar are due to the following reasons.
1.The rise of many new countries economic growth and the availability of new market and investment opportunity better than America.
2 Deficit financing of the American administartion to wage war around the world.
3.The involment of American in the war around the world.
4 The unity march of europe for better economic and political stability and a good alternative than America for the people of the world.
5 Lack of trust of world people in American leadership.
6.American cheating to the oil producing countries by monopolising the oil production and distribution and Iraqi invasion shock.
7.Switching off the dollar prefence from islamic world to euro.As these islamic countries very much fearfull of the American onslaught.
8.Outsourcing of American income for different need like migrated people income to own nations.
9 shrinking of market for American product due to advance technological development in othe nation.
10.Iran episode of present time as people belive that it will be another failed adventure of America.
11 the military,civil technological development of other world.
12 last the loss of faith among the people in just leadership of America around the world.
13 the Muslim decision to not prefere the dollar around the world.
In my opinion it is not a decline of time being but a starting point for dollar to go when 1 euro will be = 50 dollars.

mohammad allam :

The decline in the value of the Dollar are due to the following reasons.
1.The rise of many new countries economic growth and the availability of new market and investment opportunity better than America.
2 Deficit financing of the American administartion to wage war around the world.
3.The involment of American in the war around the world.
4 The unity march of europe for better economic and political stability and a good alternative than America for the people of the world.
5 Lack of trust of world people in American leadership.
6.American cheating to the oil producing countries by monopolising the oil production and distribution and Iraqi invasion shock.
7.Switching off the dollar prefence from islamic world to euro.As these islamic countries very much fearfull of the American onslaught.
8.Outsourcing of American income for different need like migrated people income to own nations.
9 shrinking of market for American product due to advance technological development in othe nation.
10.Iran episode of present time as people belive that it will be another failed adventure of America.
11 the military,civil technological development of other world.
12 last the loss of faith among the people in just leadership of America around the world.
13 the Muslim decision to not prefere the dollar around the world.
In my opinion it is not a decline of time being but a starting point for dollar to go when 1 euro will be = 50 dollars.

Halloween :

Let them eat Freedom Fries!

Vic van Meter :

OKAY, DON'T EVERYONE FREAK OUT!

Seriously people, I laughed when I saw this. The dollar has risen and fallen over and over just like any other currency. What with the housing bubble burst and the Internet stock bubble a distant memory, our economy is turning from bull to bear. And every economy takes a hit in that time.

This isn't exactly shaping up to be the Great Depression. We have too many controls for that. But America's feeling the beginning effects of the generational gap between the baby boom and the smaller generations to follow. In the short term, this is going to lead to a recession that we'll have to curb here using smart economics.

In the long term, the value of the dollar is negligible as long as it is stable. It's taken a drop against the Euro, true, but that's just a plus for the exports market that will probably pull us out of the recession.

In the end, the best things we can do are cut as much deficit as we can, deal with the upcoming social security issue, and get ready for a little hard times. It wasn't a President ago that we were worried about America's falling dollar destroying the country. Not going to happen.

Once the dollar is at its normal inflation again, it's not going to matter what the exchange rate is. It's going to definitely impact the economy in the short run, but think of this as being winded after running a long sprint. America went ballistic with the insane profits of the last decade and a half. Now it's falling back to normal.

I'm not shaking in my boots. Just let it come. Profit doesn't last forever and everyone goes through some harsh times. The worst thing everyone can do is panic. Recession happens.

Daniel :

Does Bill Emmott of Britain have it right? Dollar needs to fall to cut overconsumption--increase exports over imports? But if previous is correct does the U.S. not depend on other nations being able to increase consumption within themselves--move from exports to imports? I suppose the question I ask is how flexible are nations as to moving from imports to exports and vice-versa? And are they capable of coordinating such with one another? The U.S. needs to cut overconsumption, but how does one, for example, get a nation such as China to move toward importation or increasing consumption within its own economy (selling to itself)? And really, how much can overconsumption within the U.S. be prevented by current economic methods? Sorry for confused reasoning, economics seems to totally elude me....

MikeB :

The global economy is a danger of a sort never experienced before. In the U.,S. we have outsourced the very means by which we have recovered from economic collapses in the past. Yoiur numbers are too low. The dollar, according to the European press, has fallen 26% and is expected to fall still further. Moreover, interest rate, at close to record lows here, are so so low that foreign investment is leaving - foreign investment that has propped up our governement and personal debt. The result, at a time when the Europe and Asia's economies are doing well, will be rapidly expanding inflation, rising unemployment and poor job growth, with the governments hands tied in it's ability to drag us off those twin horns. Any further cuts to interest rates will merely spur further rapid devaluation of the dollar. Oil, natural gas, clothing, most of our machinery and electronics, even food production has been outsourced. The factories, the skills, the technology doesn't exist here any longer. So, as the dollar falls, all of those things, every necessary to survive, is going to cost more, a lot more. The BBC reports that 20% inflation for the U.S. is quite possible. We have, as so many free traitors wished, become the worlds first "service economy" and we are about to find out just how intellectually bankrupt that concept is.

As I stated below, we cannot even begin to heal until (and unless) we end globalization. That will call for a whole series of measures to reign in corporations and investors and bankers. Those "money industries", however, do not serve the interests of this country. The widest selling Wall Street stocks and the most profitable ones are Chinese! Banks, credit card companies, cellure providers, and corporations like IBM and Intel long ago offshored most of their capabilties and can no longer be consuidered U.S. companies. My proposal would be to start taxing them. If Apple makes their MacIntoshes in Shanghai, add duties and fees and special training/educational taxes to every one brought in. If they choose to make them here, reward them. Same with IBM and Intel. If they make chips in CHina and re-import them, tax the snot out of them and eliminate all other tax breaks they receive. If they make them here, reward them. If they employ a guest worker or an immigrant, especially if a U.S. citizen lost their job to make make room for that guest worker, add a 50% or greater foreign employee tax. If the excuse is hat no qualified AMercian worker could be found for the job, then the company ought to be delighted in the knowledge that (say) half that tax will go into a special fund to train American's to replace that guest worker as sson as possible.

MikeB :

Actually, the U.S., if it expects to survive, needs to end it's participation in the global economy. A BBC story just published today blows the lid off the notion of globalization - 52% of new jobs went to *legal* guest workers. That was in the U.K. In the U.S., at least 80% of new jobs paying a living wage go to guest workers! Worse, 90% of new engineering and software jobs go to immigrant workers while U.S. natives are laid off to make room for them. If we stopped hiring replacement for U.S. workers and TAXED companies for any guest workers, establishing a fund to train **their U.S. replacements**, we could fix our economy PDQ. What we cannot afford, is to support India and China's economic growth and it's insane that U.S. taxpayers and money do it!

Anju Chandel, India :

The Almighty Dollar is in distress and it is not going to be a temporary suffering - at least for sometime. The prime reasons are - as we all know - slowing down of the US economy and the taking over of the global economy by the "emerging" economies like India, China. The US needs to cool its heels for sometime before it can reemerge on the world economic radar. It is, however, simply a recession and not yet another depression. Perhaps a natural phase in life-cycle of any thing - economy included. The US would survive, for sure :)

Christopher Jon Batis :

"...Let Freedom Ring"
by Christopher Jon Batis

A serious undermining of our civil liberties is taking place in America today. This usurpation of our freedoms is the result of over 90 years of an attempt by an elite few to globalize their personal, political and economic interests.

They are manifested through a succession of secret manipulations of self-engineered domestic and global events and incidents designed to instill terror and have us fear for our security which, in turn, has caused us to blindly relinquish our personal freedoms resulting in the near total police state in which we are living today.

The Patriot Act and the Real ID Act, scheduled for implementation in May of 2008, are but two of a myriad of instruments, coupled with executive orders, that are subverting our inalienable rights endowed by birth, according to the United States Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and converting them into privileges allowed and granted by the State. Although these documents are intended to aid in the fight against terrorism, they have been amended in ways that blur the line that defines the difference between a terrorist and you and me. There is no distinction that protects you, the average citizen, from being subjected to these unconstitutional laws.

This is not an opinion by so called conspiracy theorists. It is a detailed, well documented historical archive, ironically, indexed by the same small group of the banking elite and their political puppets whose plans and enactments have been conceived, organized, and already set into motion.

As serious as this contention is, I would expect of you not to take this assertion for granted, but rather, I would hope and urge that you lend serious consideration to the exploration of the vast paper trail left behind for us all to examine. I would suggest that you to begin with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and work your way to present day and review the doctrines and philosophies of the Council on Foreign Relations and The Trilateral Commission, and plans already going forward to create the North American Union which will do away with our borders and our Constitution as has already occurred with the creation of the European Union.

With the greatest sense of urgency and patriotism, I implore of you to do your own investigative research into what is the greatest threat to our citizenship in history as the future of our nation and, as consequence, that of your children's, depends on it more than you may be capable of imagining.

If you are reading this letter, I applaud and commend the fairness and courage of the Washington Post for publishing it, acknowledging that we can still avail ourselves to the First Amendment.

God bless the free and sovereign United States of America.

Christopher Jon Batis :

"...Let Freedom Ring"
by Christopher Jon Batis

A serious undermining of our civil liberties is taking place in America today. This usurpation of our freedoms is the result of over 90 years of an attempt by an elite few to globalize their personal, political and economic interests.

They are manifested through a succession of secret manipulations of self-engineered domestic and global events and incidents designed to instill terror and have us fear for our security which, in turn, has caused us to blindly relinquish our personal freedoms resulting in the near total police state in which we are living today.

The Patriot Act and the Real ID Act, scheduled for implementation in May of 2008, are but two of a myriad of instruments, coupled with executive orders, that are subverting our inalienable rights endowed by birth, according to the United States Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and converting them into privileges allowed and granted by the State. Although these documents are intended to aid in the fight against terrorism, they have been amended in ways that blur the line that defines the difference between a terrorist and you and me. There is no distinction that protects you, the average citizen, from being subjected to these unconstitutional laws.

This is not an opinion by so called conspiracy theorists. It is a detailed, well documented historical archive, ironically, indexed by the same small group of the banking elite and their political puppets whose plans and enactments have been conceived, organized, and already set into motion.

As serious as this contention is, I would expect of you not to take this assertion for granted, but rather, I would hope and urge that you lend serious consideration to the exploration of the vast paper trail left behind for us all to examine. I would suggest that you to begin with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and work your way to present day and review the doctrines and philosophies of the Council on Foreign Relations and The Trilateral Commission, and plans already going forward to create the North American Union which will do away with our borders and our Constitution as has already occurred with the creation of the European Union.

With the greatest sense of urgency and patriotism, I implore of you to do your own investigative research into what is the greatest threat to our citizenship in history as the future of our nation and, as consequence, that of your children's, depends on it more than you may be capable of imagining.

If you are reading this letter, I applaud and commend the fairness and courage of the Washington Post for publishing it, acknowledging that we can still avail ourselves to the First Amendment.

God bless the free and sovereign United States of America.

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