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The Uncertain Future of Evangelical Voters
Before Hillary Clinton conceded the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama, I wrote a column for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution entitled, "WWJD? Vote for Obama, more and more young evangelicals say." The article was not an endorsement for either candidate, but rather a cultural analysis. My thesis was clear: Disenchanted with Republicans and attracted to the aggressive social platforms of the Democrats, many young evangelicals would likely cross party lines for the first time in their lives.
The column was based on two things. First, the hunch I was getting after having conversations with young evangelicals across the country indicating that a partisan schism was occurring. Second, a poll conducted by Relevant Magazine--a bimonthly magazine influential among young evangelicals--that confirmed that my hunch was right. The Relevant poll asked, "Who would Jesus vote for?" and although the majority of respondents were self-described conservatives, the number one response was "Barack Obama."
Though many people contacted me after my column was published to express their disbelief, if not horror, that young evangelicals would actually be able to pull the Obama lever in November, an exit poll released last week by the New York Times confirmed my prediction was correct. "Mr. Obama doubled his support among young white evangelicals (those ages 18 to 29) compared with Mr. Kerry," Times story said.
There is no doubt in my mind that we are seeing two shifts among evangelicals. First, there is a thematic shift. Like never before, evangelicals across all ages are beginning to more aggressively support social platforms, like human rights, the African AIDS and malaria crises, environmental degradation and global poverty.
But we are also seeing a generational shift, as the Times' poll illustrates. Although they are even more pro-life than their parents, younger evangelicals are not voting based only on a candidate's stance on one or two issues. They are more concerned with compassion, rather than conservatism, and with results rather than rhetoric.
For some, that means neither party is a good-enough fit, and for others, it means switching party affiliation. Because of the strong push by Joshua Dubois, director of religious affairs for the Obama campaign, and others in the Obama camp to reach out to faith communities, the latter happened in record numbers. This is significant because today's young evangelicals will be the whole evangelical voting bloc tomorrow. As the saying goes, "change comes funeral by funeral."
What's the takeaway?
Undoubtedly, this should translate into a wake-up call for Republicans and blood in the water for Democrats. On the one hand, if Republicans can begin articulating their stances on social issues in a more meaningful way, they can perhaps stop the bleeding. On the other hand, if Democrats are willing to accept a pro-life platform, or at least make serious and tangible strides to reduce abortions, they could do what many thought impossible: capture much of the massive evangelical voting block.
The jury is still out on whether either of these realities is likely to happen or how the evangelical vote will shake out in future elections. In the meantime, all eyes are on President-Elect Obama to see whether he will actually make good on the promises delivered to this disenchanted group or whether he will govern the way his record indicates he will--far to the left of most evangelical Christians. That, perhaps, will be the greatest determinant of all.
Jonathan Merritt is a faith and culture writer who is a regular contributor to publications like Relevant and Charisma magazines and The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He is also the National Spokesperson for the Southern Baptist Environment and Climate Initiative, and has appeared in media outlets such as ABC World News, The New York Times, NPR and TIME Magazine. Connect with him at jonathanmerritt.com.
By Jonathan Merritt |
November 17, 2008; 9:03 AM ET
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Posted by: 4Life2 | November 19, 2008 12:38 PM
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I think there has to be a two-fold change. the democrats do need to reach out to the evangelicals and show them that a big tent is a better tent, but evangelicals are also going to have to realize that their issues are not everyone's issues, and their beliefs are not everyone's beliefs. I firmly believe that Obama will take social responsibility very seriously in his administration, and while his faith will come into play in many ways, he is also pragmatic enough, intelligent enough and dedicated to hte Constitution enough to know that the separation of Church and State is a crucial one for this country.
Personally, I am really uncomfortable with the idea that the evangelical vote is deemed so important that they may determine the democratic platform. I believe in choice and I believe that gays are entitled to be married, just as any straight American can be. those 2 points will really determine how this all plays out, no matter how much lip service we all pay to equality, compassion, good works and the Constitution- if we let religion determine what rights which Americans are entitled to, we may as well throw out the Constitution.
Posted by: sparrow4 | November 17, 2008 5:33 PM
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Jonathan,
What you missed about the election:
President-elect Obama rode to the Blood-Red House on the backs of 35+million aborted womb-babies!!!
(The fastest growing USA voting bloc: The 70 million "mothers and fathers of aborted children" whose ranks grow by two million per year. i.e. there have been 35 million abortions since the 1973 Roe vs Wade decision.)
i.e. the Immoral Majority now rules the land and will do so in the foreseeable future.
How very sad and disturbing!!!
Posted by: CCNL | November 17, 2008 5:31 PM
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It is amazing that so many young evangelicals have been persuaded to put abortion behind other lesser issues and vote democratic. Abortion is the greatist social evil of our time and must be brought to an end. But how will this be done when so many evangelicals are willing to walk away from the party that has faithfully supported the right to life in this country? We need to wake our young people up! We are living in a country that places a higher value on sea turtle eggs than on developing humans. The democratic party is dedicated to preserving this disregard for human life. It is a travesty that evangelicals are ignoring this fact.