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Why Did Rudy Plunge?
It seems like just a few months ago--October to be exact--I was chatting with a person working for President Bush who was anticipating a plum new job in the Giuliani administration.
Sure, there would be some rough sledding with Hillary Clinton in the fall. She’s a formidable candidate. But in the end, my overconfident Muscatel-quaffing lunchtime chum looked forward to serving another commander-in-chief who would make national security his top priority.
My conversational partner was mistaken. So were those pundits and pollsters who also viewed America’s Mayor as a lock. And as I articulate a few less obvious reasons to explain Giuliani’s stunning plunge let me begin by noting that Giuliani himself erred by accepting his party’s nomination for the presidency in August 2007.
For reasons I never fully fathomed, Giuliani ran in the Republican primaries as if he were running against Hillary Clinton (who is no longer a lock either). A psychological reading--not my preferred mode of political analysis--might suggest that he never got over his aborted run for the senate in 2000. Perhaps this explains why the specter of Hillary and Hillary alone could resurrect the old, nasty Giuliani.
That would be the Giuliani who backed down from no one. That was the Giuliani who struck preemptively. The Giuliani who bullied School’s Chancellors and whistle blowers left and right. The Giuliani who gave Yasser Arafat the old heave ho. The Giuliani we New Yorkers knew and loved. And hated.
In short, Rudy 2007 was way too nice and solicitous of his GOP rivals. Why didn’t he sarcastically call into question Mitt Romney’s credentials to lead during a national security crisis? Why didn’t he portray Mike Huckabee as a small-time yokel from an off-off-off Broadway state? Why didn’t he show John McCain a little of what he showed the Brooklyn Museum and express outrage at his past ethical lapses? Why didn’t he jack up Tom Tancredo at one of those dull debates, if only because he could and because it might be fun to do so?
Last, I want to suggest, hesitantly, that Rudy had another major problem. No, not John McCain (who certainly did siphon off War on Terror voters) but Mike Huckabee. What puzzled poll watchers in the summer was that Giuliani was the most popular candidate among Evangelicals. I don’t mean to posit a direct correlation, but I can’t help but notice that the former governor of Arkansas’ surge coincides fairly neatly with Rudy’s mid-autumn swoon.
One possibility is that the emergence of Huck reminded Conservative Christians that they needn’t settle for anything but The Real McCoy. Still, up until very recently Evangelicals were--laudably--willing to give Rudy a look.
But he refused to fight for them or any other GOP constituencies. Put simply, Rudy was just too happy to be here, too happy to be the Republicans' presumptive frontunner. And for these reasons he was forced to exit, stage right.
(For more information about religion and the candidates check out Faith 2008 by the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs).
By Jacques Berlinerblau |
January 30, 2008; 11:12 PM ET
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Posted by: Ja JoZ | January 31, 2008 11:21 PM
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The hard core - most vocal section section - of the religious right who seem to attract a significant number of followers, was just leading Rudy on because they wanted to be associated with 9/11; they were never going to vote for him. Firstly, Rudy failed to meet part of the criteria of the Religious right: That is in part, say all the nasty things about other people and find a quote from the Bible to support it but continue to live your life with as much decadence as you want. Remember, the rules are meant for the others, not you. As an example, you are free to bash gays even if you are gay, just don't get caught. Proclaim your belief in the sanctity of life, but stay away from those facing the death penalty, even if they are wrongfully convicted. Advocate your firm philosophy of family values even as you are getting divorce to marry a younger woman, who, unlike your current wife, has no known health problems. As far as Immigration is concerned, declare you commitment to a fence at the Mexican border, after all, whites coming from Europe are not illegal, it's those Mexicans who are illegal aliens.
Rudy was already on record supporting many of the anti-religious rights positions, and when it was revealed that there was a photograph floating around the Internet with Rudy in Drag, he stood no chance of getting the votes of the religious right or republicans as a whole. Rudy had one final chance to get into the good graces of the religious right and that was by renouncing all of those positions he previously held which fall under the banner of, Liberal.
Unfortunately, that metamorphosis position was already taken by another candidate called Mitt Romney.
Posted by: erroldippa | January 31, 2008 8:22 PM
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The hard core - most vocal section section - of the religious right who seem to attract a significant number of followers, was just leading Rudy on because they wanted to be associated with 9/11; they were never going to vote for him. Firstly, Rudy failed to meet part of the criteria of the Religious right: That is in part, say all the nasty things about other people and find a quote from the Bible to support it but continue to live your life with as much decadence as you want. Remember, the rules are meant for the others, not you. As an example, you are free to bash gays even if you are gay, just don't get caught. Proclaim your belief in the sanctity of life, but stay away from those facing the death penalty, even if they are wrongfully convicted. Advocate your firm philosophy of family values even as you are getting divorce to marry a younger woman, who, unlike your current wife, has no known health problems. As far as Immigration is concerned, declare you commitment to a fence at the Mexican border, after all, whites coming from Europe are not illegal, it's those Mexicans who are illegal aliens.
Rudy was already on record supporting many of the anti-religious rights positions, and when it was revealed that there was a photograph floating around the Internet with Rudy in Drag, he stood no chance of getting the votes of the religious right or republicans as a whole. Rudy had one final chance to get into the good graces of the religious right and that was by renouncing all of those positions he previously held which fall under the banner of, Liberal.
Unfortunately, that metamorphosis position was already taken by another candidate called Mitt Romney.
Posted by: erroldippa | January 31, 2008 8:14 PM
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Rudy' out and McCain's in. How to explain it? Simple:
McCain is the Bob Dole of 2008. That is, the Republicans have a long history of nominating a candidate when it's "his turn" to run for president, and not a second before. Reagan ran for the nomination, but "his turn" didn't come around until 1980. Bob Dole ran for the nomination a number of times, but "his turn" didn't come around until 1996.
And, John McCain ran in 2000, but lost to bush. Eight years later, it's now McCain's turn to run as the R nominee.
Huckabee, Giuliani, Paul and Romney haven't "earned the right" to run as the Republican nominee as they're all running for the first time. They all need to lose at least once, then come back in 4 years and get the nomination the second time around.
It's that simple.
Posted by: Mr Mark | January 31, 2008 5:09 PM
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Pat Robertson's endorsement of Rudy is what killed Religious Right support of Rudy.
Mike Huckabee wasn't unknown by the Religious Right he simply wasn't "electable" . The Religious Right had reconciled themselves in forgiving Rudy for his transgressions as some feeble show of forgivingness until Pat Robertson endorsed Rudy.
This endorsement smacked with indigestible hypocrisy and Robertson explanation/justification as to why he endorsed Rudy was a total betrayal to Robertson and his followers espoused cause for Christ. It was time for the Religions Right to either live by their faith or simply shut up. And their answer was to simply support one of their own, which is what they should have done from DAY ONE if they truly BELIEVED in the Power of their God.
Posted by: Ron | January 31, 2008 4:56 PM
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If a man can't control his family, or his wife or his special urges, then how can we trust him to control the country?
He claims to be Itailan and Cathoic, but every Roman Catholic friend of mine knows how to control his woman and his family. He shames us all.
Posted by: Tony from Brooklyn. Yeah, Brooklyn! You gotta a problem with that?! | January 31, 2008 4:53 PM
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Religion is fraud.
Posted by: rob | January 31, 2008 2:42 PM
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He failed for three reasons:
1)Terrible Strategy: his strategy of waiting until FLA was absurd. He was dead before he even started. Even if he'd come in a distant third in Iowa and New Hmpshire (and he probably would have), his campaign would have still been alive for FLA instead of being DOA
2)Filthy Human Being: he's been married three times. he openly cheats on his wife when she's dying of cancer. His latest wife is a bimbo. His children hate him. He consorts with corrupt people like Berne Kerek. No matter how much he moralizes, which he does a lot, he's a very immoral person, and people found that out eventually.
3)One Trick Pony: 9/11, that's all he ever talked about. All he did was fear-monger and demegogue. That was a winning formula for Dubya in 2004, but people began to tire of and see through the tactic eventually. Americans are slow, but not stupid.
All I can say, is I am delighted that he crashed and burned as badly as he did. I view it as a repudiation of the worst of the Bush years, a repudiation of the authoritarianism, the jingoism, the fear mongering, the moralizing and the hypocracy. Good riddance Giuly.
Posted by: Kurt Hunt | January 31, 2008 2:35 PM
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Rude E lost because he has not credentials. Period. Only ex wives and kids who won't speak to him, and an ugly current spouse. All the rest is his own delusional bs.
Posted by: Jeff | January 31, 2008 2:28 PM
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Rude E lost because he has not credentials. Period. Only ex wives and kids who won't speak to him, and an ugly current spouse. All the rest is his own delusional bs.
Posted by: Jeff | January 31, 2008 2:27 PM
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It's simple, really. Giuliani was vetted in the harsh light of media scrutiny and found wanting. Too many skeletons in the closet, and too much, yep, presumption. Nobody likes presumption (which is also Romney's problem). If there is a signal image of Giuliani that I'll retain, it's of him signing his autograph but looking away and on to the next person who got his attention. Spoke volumes.
Posted by: Gene Barnes | January 31, 2008 2:10 PM
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It's amazing that the religious right would find anything to like in Giuliani, since his views on abortion and what not are those of a refined city slicker, not a backwoods yokel desperate to see to it that every seed he plants grows into yet another backwoods yokel.
I think what they liked about Giuliani was his Mussolini-style authoritarianism. Running strongly through the religious right is a desire to be turned over a knee and spanked good and hard. Giuliani seemed to be the candidate most likely to deliver a good seat warming. I agree that Huckabee was the man who snapped the religious crazies out of their authoritarian-addled stupor, reminding them that maybe they had nothing in common with Daddy after all.
Posted by: Judas Gutenberg | January 31, 2008 2:07 PM
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Maybe it wasn't so much of the above stated reasons that Giuliani's star fell in the circus environment of the primary season. Maybe it was more due to the fact that every speech, every quote, every gesture came with a 9/11 reference attached. His campaigning on a national tragedy was small and disgraceful. Sure, when discussing how he might fair in crisis situation or as Commander in Chief those references are appropriate. Giuliani, however, frequently and regularly used 9/11 as a crutch.
While it is true that early on Giuliani, the admitedly lapsed Catholic, had Evangelical support this was really early in the game. Him being in the campaign so early did hurt him because it did give those people a chance to realize that some of his views didn't align with their faith. Not too many people knew enough about Huckabee or Romney or some of the other fringe canidates to make their support informative. McCain & Giuliani were the highest profile figures. The longer Giuliani was a viable candidate the more time Evangelicals had to mull over both his personal and political shortcomings. Regardless of the name attached, can you really imagine Evangelicals readily and enthusiastically backing an individual who supports gay marriage, abortion, committed adultery while in office and barely maintains strained relationships with his children (who openly don't support him)?
Posted by: Allie | January 31, 2008 1:41 PM
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ATT: Mrs.Linder-Phoenix:
Question: Do you do the Coocho Poocheee?
Then Keep me out of it!
Posted by: Anonymous | January 31, 2008 1:34 PM
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Here's the deal: Rudy's shtick was to run as Mr. Hawk.
But if you're going to vote for someone who is a hawk first and foremost, why not vote for a smart, experienced hawk (McCain) over a less experienced, sophisticated hawk (Giuliani).
McCain lives, breathes and sleeps foreign policy. Giuliani never has. And McCain's judgment in foreign affairs was proven right by his early advocacy of the surge (or so most hawkish voters believe).
There was simply never enough room in the Republican primary for two candidates who are hawks abroad and who were (rightly or wrongly) perceived as more moderate than other Rs at home. The rebirth of McCain was the death of Giuliani.
Posted by: Mike | January 31, 2008 1:26 PM
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Here's the deal: Rudy's shtick was to run as Mr. Hawk.
But if you're going to vote for someone who is a hawk first and foremost, why not vote for a smart, experienced hawk (McCain) over a less experienced, sophisticated hawk (Giuliani).
McCain lives, breathes and sleeps foreign policy. Giuliani never has. And McCain's judgment in foreign affairs was proven right by his early advocacy of the surge (or so most hawkish voters believe).
There was simply never enough room in the Republican primary for two candidates who are hawks abroad and who were (rightly or wrongly) perceived as more moderate than other Rs at home. The rebirth of McCain was the death of Giuliani.
Posted by: Mike | January 31, 2008 1:26 PM
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Here's the deal: Rudy's shtick was to run as Mr. Hawk.
But if you're going to vote for someone who is a hawk first and foremost, why not vote for a smart, experienced hawk (McCain) over a less experienced, sophisticated hawk (Giuliani).
McCain lives, breathes and sleeps foreign policy. Giuliani never has. And McCain's judgment in foreign affairs was proven right by his early advocacy of the surge (or so most hawkish voters believe).
There was simply never enough room in the Republican primary for two candidates who are hawks abroad and who were (rightly or wrongly) perceived as more moderate than other Rs at home. The rebirth of McCain was the death of Giuliani.
Posted by: Mike | January 31, 2008 1:26 PM
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I think, in the end, it may have been much simpler: he was a one-note pony, if you'll pardon the mixed metaphor.
"9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11..." Frankly, I think even the people who wanted to hear that got *bored* with it. :)
Just bored.
Anyway, it was my fave headline of the race: "Guiliani Quits Race To Spend More Time with 9/11."
:)
Posted by: Paganplace | January 31, 2008 1:15 PM
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Absolute nonsense. Huckabee announced more than a year ago. There was PLENTY of time for Christian conservatives to get on board. They never saw him as viable, so they went to Rudy. So much for principles (paging Pat Robertson?). Huck only siphoned Rudy votes after campaigning in and winning Iowa. It was the last straw for having any belief that born-again Republicans were driven by religion and not party.
Posted by: Phil | January 31, 2008 1:06 PM
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That evangelicals could support a man who billed his adultery expenses to the city pretty much exposes how little the religious right really cares about morality and ethics. Their moral criticisms of liberal positions ring hollower by the minute.
Posted by: swheelock | January 31, 2008 1:00 PM
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I think it's all simpler than that, Mr. Berlinerblau. Giuliani suffered from exposure. The more people saw of him, the less they liked. I had an impression of a man not very bright, not at all, repeating stock phrases and clichés, yapping like a chihuahua. OK, to be fair all the Republicans sound that way but Rudy sounded like he didn't even know what the words meant, they came out all in one piece.
Stable Iraq innamericasintrists. Ally innawaronterror. Yap yap yap.
Posted by: Chris Fox | January 31, 2008 12:59 PM
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What, Limbaugh's sycophants are coming here now?
Posted by: AJ | January 31, 2008 12:39 PM
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America will have a black president or a female president before it will have a president who reminds them of Tony Soprano.
Posted by: candide | January 31, 2008 12:39 PM
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Control yourself JozeVZ, take your meds. As an Arizonan, McCain will not get my vote. He's an angry little man with a potty mouth, and the AZ press can't stand him. McCain is an honorable ex-soldier and his sacrifice has taken him a long way in politics, and made him very wealthy. Same as Rudy G with his 911, 911, 911. Enough is enough. Romney's family reminds of of Ken and Barbie and their offsprings. I don't see what middle America and diversity have in common with Romny. But, I will say, he's a successful business person and might, maybe, understand the economy. Don't forget, we the people, are the economy.
Posted by: Mrs.Linder-Phoenix | January 31, 2008 12:38 PM
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You're really reaching for it here--the reason why Giuliani was the preferred candidate all summer was because no one knew anything about him. It's no puzzle why evangelicals found him attractive then--they didn't know him.
I can't stand Giuliani, and am basking in the freudenschade of his defeat, but at least he didn't abandon just about every principal and position he ever stood for (he's still pro-choice, and in favor of gun control) in order to get a few more votes, a la Romney and McCain.
Posted by: kayebee | January 31, 2008 12:35 PM
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It could be, as noted, that Huckabee was a more attractive candidate for the religious crowd.
And apparently a little Rudy goes a long way. The more people saw of him, the less they liked.
Hard to believe a thrice-divorced supporter of abortion rights, gay rights and gun control would have any problems in a Repbublican primary.
Posted by: Enemy Of The State | January 31, 2008 11:32 AM
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Rudy lost again and again and again because he's scary and he has only one issue -- 9/11. Since he's been milking it for six years, he figured he could answer every question with 9/11 like the Liar-in-Chief. But, America doesn't want another George Bush. NO ONE wants another George Bush, AKA The Great Prevaricator.
Posted by: Joe | January 31, 2008 11:28 AM
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Much too convoluted, Jacques Berlinerblau.
Rudy didn't pay attention to the wisdom of another New Yorker who said "70% of success is just showing up".
And he didn't: not in Iowa or New Hampshire or South Carolina and only belatedly in Florida. Voters generally warm to a candidate that campaigns for the office.
Posted by: MaryCunningham | January 31, 2008 10:01 AM
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Ooppsssa
Who is Mrs. R*O*M*N*E*Y?????
Please see Linko's for:
1) R*O*M*N*E*Y : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney Thanks.
2) Mc*CAiN: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_McCain Thanks
Where is Mrs. McCain?????????