In 2004, George W. Bush won the presidency by assembling a coalition of White Evangelicals (78% of whom cast their vote for him), non-Latino Catholics and Mormons, among others. These so-called “values voters” were the “It” constituency of 2004. The punditry fawned over them. Their views became something of a congressional fashion. They were spotted at hipster bars in the Williamsburg section of Brooklyn, and so on.
But the idea that the road to the White House must go through Evangelical America is, I believe, about to go out of style. For starters, Evangelicals are becoming increasingly ideologically diverse. Issues other than abortion and Gay marriage are on their agenda. National security is a major concern. They are paying attention to global climate change. The AIDS crisis is on their minds. Nor have they forgotten that their gospels tell them to care for the poor.
The Democrats, for their part, have smartened up considerably. When it comes to religious voters they are no longer Goofus to Karl Rove’s Gallant ("Gallant establishes a grassroots network of Conservative Christian volunteers numbering in the hundreds of thousands. Goofus has his candidate deliver his first real Faith and Values speech a week and a half before the election."). For the first time in recent memory each of their three front-runners in the primaries can do convincing God Talk (need I mention the names of John Kerry, Howard Dean, Bill Bradley, Jerry Brown, Paul Tsongas, Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale in order to demonstrate the eclipse-like infrequency of this phenomenon?).
It is, therefore, virtually assured that the Democrats will field a candidate who is willing and able to communicate with the religious groups mentioned above. True, she or he will not outright win the White Evangelical vote. But that’s not the goal. The goal is not to lose eight out of every ten votes cast by a constituency that comprises a quarter of the electorate. That’s the damn goal. And if the Democrats continue shucking their godless image while advocating centrist policies, they may well neutralize the Republican’s considerable advantage among Americans who attend church frequently.
Which leads me to ask: why are Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and John McCain all trying so hard to appeal to the same voting block, and a fractured one at that? As the Giuliani campaign grinningly looks on (and implores Newt Gingrich to reconsider his decision to not enter the race), each has abandoned the center of 2008 in hopes of capturing the Evangelical base of 2004.
Each is doing everything in their power to lower his NARAL ratings to sub-zero levels. Each is tackling the “tough” issue of Gay marriage. If they keep it up, each will be standing well to the right of Pat Buchanan by the time Thanksgiving rolls around. And each can be sure that not one Swing Democrat in the United States will cast a vote for them if they somehow win their Party’s nomination.
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