In 2004, 78% percent of White Evangelicals voted for George W. Bush. The GOP, I surmise, would like to achieve similar numbers in 2008. The danger presented by Barack Obama is not so much that he will completely reverse this result. Neither he, nor any other Democrat will be able to do that. It will be decades, if not longer, before Evangelicals return to the Party they once so faithfully supported. Rather, what Obama may be able to do is siphon off scads of “Swing Evangelicals” in battleground states. If I were a Republican operative I would dread the following scenario:
It’s mid-October and the senator is addressing a room full of Kansans in a non-college town. The Kansans (who in my reverie are dressed like the cast of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s Oklahoma) are initially skeptical about this “liberal” affiliated with the socially progressive United Church of Christ denomination. But Obama opens his talk by reminding them that he too is from Kansas (being from Kansas: Kansans love that!). He then surprises his listeners by pointedly noting his disagreements with certain secular mantras of his party (Indeed, it suddenly dawns upon the lone, closeted village atheist in the room that when it comes to separation of church and state, Barack Obama is no Michael Dukakis).
Next, he fires up his audience with Jimmy Carter like gospel-based oratory, except that it’s interesting and fun to listen to. He speaks out-loud about an awesome God and his awesome God does not appear to be a card-carrying member of the ACLU. After the Q and A, as the Kansans head home in advance of their self-imposed, statewide 7:30 pm curfew, 25% of them remain completely unconvinced and unmoved. Another 50% depart intending to vote Republican, but they are generally impressed by what they heard and pleased to learn that Mr. Obama is a Good Christian Man (because Kansans are fair, big-hearted folks, after all). Twenty five percent of his listeners, however, will now consider casting their vote for a Democrat (because Kansans are open-minded folks, after all). The next evening the scene repeats itself in Columbus Ohio.
The scenario I have conjured up abounds in hypothetical assumptions, not least of which is that Obama will win his party’s nomination. It also ignores certain glaring negatives in his biography (and autobiography) that may make him a difficult sell to White Evangelicals (I will address this issue soon). Yet the point I wish to make is that if there is any present Democratic candidate who can manipulate faith-based rhetoric to trigger a political conversion among conservative religious voters it is the talented junior senator from Illinois.
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