Entries from SAIS Next Europe tagged with 'Russia'
Resetting Russian Relations
Despite the murder of human rights activist Natalia Estimirova in Chechnya, the subsequent visit of Russian Federation President Dmitry Medvedev to Munich for the annual Petersburg Dialogue meeting between Russia and Germany appears to have gone off swimmingly. Medvedev spoke sharply against the killing and the meeting focused on energy and economic ties, including the purchase of automaker Opel by a consortium including Russia's largest bank.
Nabucco Pipeline Gets the Green Light
It was a cold winter, especially in several European countries. When Russia stopped pumping natural gas through Ukraine in January because of price disputes, several EU members found that their reliance on Eastern European partners made them surprisingly vulnerable. The lack of natural gas in the middle of the winter summoned the political will to find a solution and reduce the EU's dependence on Russian gas.
Shield of Dreams
The shift in the Obama administration's policy suggesting a freeze in deployment of the ballistic missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic has rekindled the debate in the two Central European countries about their future security relations with the United States.
Proponents claim that the suspension of the deployment, together with Obama's attempt to press the "reset button" in U.S.-Russian relations, undermines the security of the region. Opponents suggest that the decision on whether to base elements of a missile defense shield in Central Europe is an internal U.S. matter, and that abandoning the Bush policy could in fact enhance stability in this part of Europe by eliminating a thorny issue in relations with Russia. Moreover, even though the Polish and Czech governments signed on to the plan, neither the Polish nor the Czech parliament has yet to ratify the agreement, and popular opinion is strongly opposed.
Russia's Non-Democracy
If it weren't so sad, it would be funny to read Russia's President Medvedev's recent interview with Novaya Gazeta, in which he said, "Democracy [in Russia] existed, exists, and will exist."
Human rights still appear to be a luxury in Russia. Recently, Lev Ponomaryov, director of the Moscow-based Organization For Human Rights, and a leader in the new political opposition movement Solidarity, was reportedly beaten by a group of men outside his home . Stanislav Markelov, whom the Wall Street Journal called one of Russia's top human rights lawyers, was murdered in late January, as was Anastasia Baburova, a 25-year-old freelancer for Novaya Gazeta, which, according to the New Zealand Herald, is the last major publication critical of the Kremlin. Novaya Gazeta also lost three other journalists in the last decade-- Anna Politkovskaya, Yuri Shchekochikhin, and Igor Domnikov.
When I read about a journalist or a human rights activist hurt or killed because of their work, it hits a little too close to home. My father, who never joined the Communist Party, was a journalist at the Ostankino radio tower in Moscow until the end of 1993, when, after several years of trying to get permission to leave the country, my family and I immigrated to the U.S. with refugee status. I grew up knowing that certain opinions I heard at home were those of the minority and repeating them outside our apartment was not a good idea.
Russia's Olympic Election
The Russian Black Sea resort town of Sochi has yet to begin building the dozens of event venues and other facilities it will need to host the 2014 Winter Olympics. But the contest to become Sochi's next mayor is well underway, with a cast of candidates rivaling that of the 2003 California campaign that elected muscle man and action movie actor Arnold Schwarzenegger governor of the most populous state in the U.S.
Ukraine on the Brink
The gas supply crisis between Russia and the EU has been resolved; the larger crisis in Ukraine has just begun. In what has become a regular ritual, gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine were halted for two weeks in January as the Russian and Ukraine argued over debt, shipment fees, and the price of gas sold to Ukraine. With EU intervention, Russia and Ukraine agreed to resume shipments to Europe. Europe is now breathing a sigh of relief, but Ukraine is wincing at the new price it will have to pay for domestic gas and implications for its economy.
For New EU President, A Baffling Array of Challenges
The Czech Republic took over the European Union's six-month rotating presidency on New Year's Day amid substantial apprehension across the continent. While Nicolas Sarkozy used the job to fill an American leadership gap during the outbreak of the world financial crisis, the presidency has shifted to an outlier of sorts: a country that does not use the euro, one of the two in the 27-nation bloc which has not approved the Lisbon Treaty, with a fiery Euroskeptic president, at a time when an uneven economic downturn offers the EU its greatest challenge in a decade. And additional tests did not wait long to pop up. In the first week of 2009, Israeli ground troops invaded Gaza and all Russian gas headed for Europe via Ukraine was cut off.
Russia's Fate and Falling Oil Prices
How will the current plummet of oil prices affect Russia? Guesses abound, mostly in the negative, but they remain nothing more than just guesses.
History can be interesting without being terribly useful. In 1986 oil prices crashed. The resultant slowdown in the Soviet economy, heavily dependent on sales of oil and gas, was one of the causes of the Soviet breakup at the end of 1991. But is this lesson really relevant?
For starters, the Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union, even if it has inherited its legacy of pervasive corruption. The most notable feature is the absence of ethnic republics of any considerable size (and history of some self-rule). The economic slowdown was one of the causes of the Soviet collapse, but the mobilization of ethnic, nationalist claims was probably even more important. In today's Russian Federation ethnic tensions and desires for increased autonomy, or even sovereignty, do exist. (Look at nearly sixteen years' of events in the North Caucasus.) The Putin years have not laid this issue to rest, but the tensions have decreased since the formal end of the second Chechen War.
This brings us back to the original question: whither Russia if oil prices continue dropping? The government's 2009 budget will likely see its first deficit in nearly a decade. This will not be a problem for short-term operations, though: over $700 billion of reserves insures the government against this. The problem for Russia is a long-term one: several years of these prices, impossible though that might seem, would lead to catastrophic consequences for a state seeking to improve its living standards to and triple its GDP by 2020. By that date, the object of so much planning for Russia's long-term development, Russians' annual salary should increase by a factor greater than three and its pension problem should be solved. $60 per barrel of oil, if indeed we get there, will make these hopes and intentions a pipe dream.
The United States has strategic interests in these affairs. Our leaders would certainly hope to see a humbled Russian political and business elite. But only to some degree. We are not witnessing the imminent collapse of a fragile regime. Nor should we hope for one. The Russian leadership has not exercised great delicacy over the past six months. Its deterioration and consequent instability would be even worse for American interests. Bring the Russian back to the table, yes, but don't bring them back begging. Witness the results of the 1990s.
Chad Miner is a graduate student in the IR/Global Theory and History program at the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, D.C.
Reason Rules in Tussle with Kremlin
The Russian mission to New York gleefully alerted the press this weekend that they had had received an odd fundraising request: John McCain's campaign urged the Russians to "stop the Democrats from seizing control of Washington and implementing their radically liberal policy for our nation." Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin turned down the request and told the media, to illustrate that Russia doesn't try to influence elections abroad.
The solicitation of the Russians was clearly an accident - people receive unwanted fundraising solicitations all the time. But it's somewhat amusing, given McCain's stance on Russia.
Europe's Message to Moscow
The European Union has entered diplomatic no-man's-land by deploying more than 200 monitors to areas of Georgia next to the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, replacing Russian forces that invaded Georgia in August. The EU's Georgian deployment is a test of its ability to manage relations with a resurgent Russia, and to develop a more credible approach to the volatile "in-between" lands that stretch along EU borders from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
Russia Takes Upper Hand in Crisis
Russia, like the United States and by now much of the rest of the world, is treading dangerously at the edge of financial despair. Four weeks ago, Finance Minister Alexsei Kudrin stated that Russia would not have to use its reserve funds. The government has since changed its position, and then some. In just the past two months Russia's reserves have decreased by nearly $50 billion [in Russian]. It looks like some (nobody knows yet how much) of Russia's reserves will now be employed in keeping its banks and firms from total collapse.
Russia's Image Campaign
News Roundup: Russia
As the U.S. presidential elections approach quickly, Russia is scrambling to underscore its military determination and unyielding ambitions for regional dominance. While the Georgian conflict renewed world interest in Russian affairs in late summer, the subsequent John McCain hard-line statements on Russian affairs and the Republican campaign emphasis on Sarah Palin's Russian expertise have conclusively focused the global spotlight onto the country. The Kremlin wants the new American Commander-in-Chief to enter the White House with the clear idea that Moscow isn't ready to compromise.
Russians: Palin Who?
Americans aren't the only ones smirking at Sarah Palin's claims of expertise in Russian affairs. The Russians are cracking a smile, too.
The authors of a recent article in the Russian daily newspaper "Izvestia" questioned the dubious logic linking the Alaska's proximity to Russia with Palin's foreign policy know-how. They concluded, rather sarcastically, that the former alone is enough to qualify the Alaskan governor as a global politics 'specialist.' The article further discussed Palin's publicity stunt of visiting the Minneapolis Museum of Russian Art in early September and noted that journalists present at the scene somehow failed to probe her familiarity with Russian artwork.
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