Kosovo's Plot Thickens

Three German spooks are back home after a nine-day sojourn in a Kosovo prison, and a European rule-of-law mission named "EULEX" is now stationed in northern Kosovo after a nine-month vacuum there. Between them, the two events define the new landscape in the world's newest state.

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Posted by Lauren Keane on December 17, 2008 5:39 PM

Recognizing Kosovo - Who's Next?

On October 9th, both Montenegro and Macedonia recognized the free and independent state of Kosovo. This sudden joint-decision came as a great shock to Serbia, a traditional ally and neighbor of the two that has been counting on their support in its own efforts to block further international recognition of Kosovo. The newborn state -- the Republic of Kosovo -- unilaterally claimed its independence on February 17th of this year and so far has been recognized by 52 UN countries (including 22 EU countries and 4 former Yugoslav republics - Croatia, Slovenia, and now Montenegro and Macedonia.)

Serbia and its big brother Russia have maintained their opposition to the decision of the Kosovo government to proclaim independence. Until October 9 Montenegro supported this position, and had even sided with the Serbs in appealing to the ICJ on the issue of Kosovo's legality of independence. Furthermore, 24 hours before accepting Kosovo as a state, the Montenegrin Prime Minister conducted extensive diplomatic talks with Serbian officials regarding adoption of a number of bilateral agreements that would facilitate the entry of both countries into the EU. Soon after --and unexpectedly -- Montenegro recognized the newborn state of Kosovo. In unison, Macedonia followed up on accepting the state of Kosovo, despite an ongoing border dispute with Kosovo. This "Joint-Balkan-decision" (as ironic as it sounds!) came as a result of similar pressures on both countries, primarily from their Albanian minorities, and also from the United States and a few EU countries.

At present, both states have accepted the legality of the new country, which underscores their clear transatlantic orientation and constant striving for further economic and democratic development in the Balkans. Yet, despite its importance, this joint political decision certainly did not go unnoticed, sparking heavy protests among the Serbian population in Montenegro and leading to the expulsion of the Montenegrin ambassador in Serbia. Furthermore, Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic was quoted as saying that recognizing Kosovo's independence would represent a stab in the back for Serbia. Nevertheless, this statement was short-lived, whereas all three countries have clearly stated that they do not wish to ruin the relations between them and expressed the willingness of deepening their collaborations in their common areas of interest. Hence, this decision did not result in a damage of cooperation between the neighboring countries, leading to the palpable observation that recognizing Kosovo is vital for embedding stability in the region.

On the other hand, will Serbia ever follow the footsteps of its rational allies? Well, considering Serbia's strive for Western support and willingness to join NATO and the EU, such a possibility should not be deemed far-fetched. Kosovo's independence is a political reality that should not be ignored. If they do, however, decide to let go of Kosovo once and for all and recognize it as a state in the same way as all other ex-Yugoslav republics, it can be deemed as a contribution in moving the region towards greater integration with Euro-Atlantic institutions. As stated by Marti Aahtisari, the Nobel Peace Prize winner for his meditation in Kosovo, "Serbia's recognition of Kosovo should be a "conditional requirement" of their integration in the EU" and they cannot expect to join the EU if they pursue destructive policies, partition and the blocking of the EU mission in Kosovo.

Adea D. Kryeziu is a graduate student in the IR/International Policy program at the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Bologna Center in Italy.

Posted by Lauren Keane on November 7, 2008 4:28 PM

Europe's Next Trouble Spot

Imagine it's February, 2008. Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia is imminent. International analysts are warning about reactionary moves by other breakaway regions. They say that South Ossetia and Abkhazia would become more daring in making official their already de facto independence from Georgia. They also say that after the successes of these regions-turned-states, we shouldn't be surprised by the appearance on the map of independent republics called either Transnistria (in Moldova), Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) or Republika Srpska (Bosnia-Herzegovina).

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Posted by Lauren Keane on November 3, 2008 5:58 PM