Entries from SAIS Next Europe tagged with 'Europe'
Exposing NATO's Weaknesses in Afghanistan
Allied efforts in Afghanistan are in danger of failing. Attacks against coalition forces are increasing; the economy remains largely undeveloped, with the dubious exception of poppy production; indigenous Afghan police and military forces still require the strong support of allied forces; and government corruption is rampant. Afghanistan is by nature a difficult country to stabilize, but the reality is that the coalition waging the war is in a fractured state.
Europe's Democracy Legend
The belief that the European Union (EU) is the globally most successful promoter of democracy has become a part of the liberal orthodoxy on both sides of the Atlantic. The narrative tells us that by offering the ex-communist countries of Central Europe the juicy perspective of membership in their rich man's club, West Europeans benignly forced them to implement democratic reforms and thus made sure their democratic transition ended up, by and large, successfully.
The story of the EU as the foremost democracy promoter has recently gained extra popularity thanks to the neoconservative Middle East fiasco. Brussels mandarins love to lecture their American partners that where the U.S. failed with its aircraft carriers and stealth bombers, the EU triumphed with its "cohesion funds" and technocratic expansion of the web of institutions. American Democrats, reckoning with the Bush era, nod in approval. After all, Central Europe is soundly democratic and the Middle East is not.
G-20 Stretching U.S.-Europe Bonds
This week's G-20 meetings might say more about the true state of U.S.-Europe relations than any other recent event, highlighting fissures in the post-Cold War bonds between President Obama and his European counterparts. Over the next few months, heads of state from both sides of the Atlantic will have to face their two most vexing concerns: the financial crisis and conflicts with non-state actors, especially in Afghanistan. Both of those threats require unified, international action, something the two sides are finding difficult to produce as their meetings progress.
Transatlantic Leadership: Restart International Trade
As the economic crisis continues, feelings on both sides of the Atlantic have been hurt.
Americans are accusing European countries of not doing enough to stimulate demand while Europeans are dismayed that the U.S. is unwilling to implement regulations to prevent such a crisis from happening again. I do not foresee an easy solution to these disputes. However, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic can look beyond such disagreements and focus on an area where they can make substantial progress: trade.
The Doha Trade round was initiated in 2001 to cut tariffs and other barriers to trade within the WTO framework. After a number of attempts, negotiations stalled in 2008 and there has been little progress since. The key point of disagreement is agricultural supports, particularly within the U.S. and EU. Along with the EU, some developing countries seek a significant cut in American price-distorting agricultural support while the U.S. wants a reduction in tariff barriers in the EU and developing countries. However, negotiating positions have converged in the last seven years and the major ingredient now lacking is political will.
EU Takes Realist Tone With Colombia
During Colombian President Alvaro Uribe's recent visit to Berlin, two agenda items garnered attention: closer economic ties with Europe and help fighting the drug trade.
Europe is charging ahead on the former. Negotiations over a free trade agreement (FTA) began in mid-February, leaving the EU poised to gain where the United States lost last year. After two years of negotiations and substantial expenditures of political capital by both the Bush administration and President Uribe, Congress refused to vote on the U.S.-Colombia (FTA) over concerns about human rights and labor standards--even after the FTA was revised to include enforceable labor provisions. (The bill ultimately fell victim to an underlying difference in perspective: The Bush administration saw the FTA as a tool for strengthening national security through economic development that could undercut drug activity in Colombia, but the Democrats in control of Congress saw it as a reward that Colombia did not deserve).
Europe's Lame Duck Leadership Problem
In 2008, the United States suffered from lame duck leadership. Throughout 2009, the European Union will have the same problem.
As the financial and economic crisis gained steam in the fall of last year, government and business leaders bemoaned the lack of decisive leadership from an American Presidency crippled by fading popularity and the anticipated end of its term. The EU seemed to fill the global leadership vacuum left by President Bush, especially under the leadership of the French Presidency of the Council. The French Prime Minister was influential in resolving the Georgian-Russian conflict, brokering European agreement on bank bailouts and climate change, and even scheduling and promoting summits to develop a global response to the financial crisis.
What Europe and America Each Teach
The most unforeseen merit of studying at Johns Hopkins' campus in Bologna, Italy is that of becoming conscious of the hidden pitfalls of both American academia and the Italian way of life. I say hidden pitfalls because the darker sides of a rigorous, world-class education in one of Europe's most culturally rich locations are exposed more fully then ever when these two worlds overlap and most powerfully, when they collide.
China Manipulates, Europe Wins
Tim Geithner, the newly confirmed U.S. Treasury Secretary, ruffled feathers in Beijing and raised eyebrows across the Atlantic with a statement at his confirmation hearing that China has been "manipulating" its currency to gain an unfair advantage in export markets. Geithner's comments were received with predictable hostility in Beijing, but more interesting was the lukewarm response from across the Atlantic--given the European Union's own large current account deficit with China.
A spokesperson for the EU's monetary and economic affairs commissioner simply commented that "exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. That's all we wish to say." In other words, despite tough talk on China last year, the EU prefers not to touch this one.
Will the Euro Survive?
With its tenth anniversary on January 1, 2009, the euro has come of age. Sixteen European countries now use the euro as their national currency and the popularity of the euro for foreign reserves is on the rise. Policymakers have breathed a sigh of relief as the currency has so far withstood the current economic downturn, including crises in large multinational banks such as Fortis and Dexia.
But congratulations are premature. The euro area has yet to demonstrate its cohesiveness when confronted with the growing economic divergence of its member states and even the specter of a sovereign debt default.
Artwork, Toilets, and EU Identity
A large art installation, billed as a collaborative effort between artists from the 27 member states of the European Union to highlight their respective countries, was hung above the entrance to the EU Council headquarters in Brussels this month. But the representations are hardly flattering.
The Netherlands: underwater, with only minarets poking above the waves. France: bearing a sign reading "on strike," stretched across the whole country. Luxembourg: a piece of gold for sale. Sweden: packed into an IKEA box. Romania: a Dracula theme park. Worst of all, Bulgaria: a series of toilets.
Nor is "Entropa" truly what its creators advertised: the work of 27 EU artists, as it was originally sold to both the EU and to the Czech government, which took over the EU's rotating presidency this year. In fact, it is the work of a single Czech artist, David Černý, perhaps best known for putting sculptures of creepy crawling faceless babies on the already weird-looking Žižkov Television Tower in Prague. The other artists don't exist.
For New EU President, A Baffling Array of Challenges
The Czech Republic took over the European Union's six-month rotating presidency on New Year's Day amid substantial apprehension across the continent. While Nicolas Sarkozy used the job to fill an American leadership gap during the outbreak of the world financial crisis, the presidency has shifted to an outlier of sorts: a country that does not use the euro, one of the two in the 27-nation bloc which has not approved the Lisbon Treaty, with a fiery Euroskeptic president, at a time when an uneven economic downturn offers the EU its greatest challenge in a decade. And additional tests did not wait long to pop up. In the first week of 2009, Israeli ground troops invaded Gaza and all Russian gas headed for Europe via Ukraine was cut off.
Europe's American Obstacle: Republicans in Decline
Unfortunately for Europe, the biggest obstacle standing in the way of the greatest reversal in modern U.S.-European relations is a Republican Party on the decline. Lacking a coherent strategy for explaining and justifying the Bush Doctrine, the last option for the party in shambles is obstruction and taking on their favorite bête noir and the future face of U.S. diplomacy, Hillary Clinton. Fresh off the auto-bailout filibuster, the National Republican Committee will be holding "soul-searching" sessions this month to discuss platform issues and the future of the party. A successful block of a coordinated U.S. financial bailout with Europe, and an Obama fumble in his first foreign policy test, may just be what the GOP is looking for.
Obama's Wish List for Europe
European leaders have embraced Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 U.S. presidential elections, expecting the beginning of a new, brighter chapter in transatlantic relations. French President Nicolas Sarkozy expressed the feelings of many when he stated that Obama's election "has raised enormous hope in France, in Europe and beyond."
The new president is expected to make some policy reversals - such as closing the Guantanamo Bay detention camp - that will please many Europeans. But the initial euphoria about change in the Washington could wear off quickly as Europeans realize that America's overall national interest - remaining the leading economic and military power in the world - will not change and will continue to guide US foreign policy.
NATO's 60th anniversary summit in France and Germany in April, 2009 may well offer Europeans their first reality check on the 44th president. While the global financial crisis is likely to dominate the transatlantic agenda until then, key security challenges will need to be addressed urgently. We therefore expect Obama to arrive at the summit not only to praise the Alliance's past achievements, but to also present a "wish list" of things he expects America's European allies to contribute to US political and military efforts around the globe. The demands will signal that the new administration takes its partnership with Europe seriously - something Europeans routinely request.
Europe's Winner in Financial Crisis: Politicians
In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy nearly abandoned capitalism during his speech in Toulon on September 24th. Coming from the current EU President, his comments added to the sense of panic, rather than showing resolve and leadership. Those comments may have resonated with socialist sympathizers in France, but left financial analysts scratching their heads. Many are wondering if this is just another French promised reformist, turned apathetic. A few weeks ago he gathered with his European counterparts for a coordinated rescue package, which calls into question the purpose of his Toulon rhetoric. Remind me which side was he on during the '68 protests? He's made a decent effort to spearhead negotiations recently among the EU and US counterparts, but now appears to be stalling the process with his insistence on including energy-related language. If the Kyoto and the EU carbon credit fiascos taught anything is that the US and the EU are nowhere near consensus on climate change.
Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi appeared too fixated on saving Alitalia to notice the looming global meltdown. Now, with the banking system called into question, the rescue of Italy's national airline is on the backburner. Although he's a successful business executive who must understand markets, with his three-thousand Euro suits Berlusconi embodies an air of the backroom-deal and golden parachute that many attribute as the prime causes of the financial crisis. It may be hard for the billionaire to appeal to the unemployed if the crisis gets out of hand in Italy, but the jury is still out, pending the country's financial state in the coming months.
Let Americans Celebrate Transformation
Like many fellow expats, I've felt especially European in the past eight years. And like many, I've felt especially American in the past two weeks. In 2008--for the first time in ten leap years--I returned to the U.S. to celebrate an election on U Street in Washington, DC. And from this vantage point, I beg to differ from my German (and British) friends.
Yes, they caught the excitement. And yes, the Germans personally backed Obama by a greater margin than Massachusetts. But the sophisticated Brits arched their eyebrows, wondering if No Drama Obama could ever be tough enough. (After he beat the Clintons at their own game?) And chattering-class Germans first reached a consensus half a year ago that it didn't make much difference who won this election; either way, they would be asked to send more troops to Afghanistan. (No difference on Guantanamo? On the torture that McCain endured as a hero, opposed as a maverick, and finally tolerated as a candidate?) Then on Nov. 5 the German commentators concluded that after ratcheting our expectations so high, we're all bound to be disappointed.
I suppose I should chalk this up to the difference between Americans' instrumental "yes we can" optimism and Germans' instrumental "the sky is falling" pessimism. Americans plunge into crises to cope by trial and error. See, for example, the Republicans' embrace of not only big, but humongous government in the financial meltdown. Germans, by contrast, worry about looming crises for years in advance and then chip away at cumulative remedies in the interim before the thereby diminished doomsday hits. See, sort of, their enthusiasm for fighting climate change.
Well, OK. We need both approaches. That's what our transatlantic alliance is for. It's supposed to avoid both deadlock and the lowest common denominator and find a synergy of contrary wisdoms that is more than the sum of the alliance's parts. But don't expect the New World to be disillusioned quite as fast as the Old. After an election campaign that for once needed to last this long to test John McCain's steadiness, Barack Obama's learning curve, and voters' racial maturity, we need a little more time to find our new equilibrium. Grant us at least until January 20 to dance on the tables of the U Street bars, savor this closure of our civil war, and name a fresh crop of babies Barack.
After all, transformation doesn't come every leapyear.
Elizabeth Pond is a Berlin-based author, journalist, and non-resident Senior Fellow at the SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations.
Europe's China Problem
Europe, like the United States, has a China problem. But the problem is not what most analysts suggest. Four months ago European trade officials were fulminating about Europe's growing trade deficit with China. This week, with the Chinese economic ministry reporting a dramatic slowdown in the Asian giant's growth and G-20 countries meeting to try to chart a new course for the global economy, Europeans have begun to ask a different question: "What effect would a serious deceleration in China have on the Old World?"
The Change the Old World Doesn't Believe In -- Yet
If Europeans could have voted in the U.S. presidential election, they would have voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. More than two-thirds of Germans, Italians and Spanish queried recently by a Harris Interactive poll supported Obama; less than one in ten favored John McCain. Only one percent of those polled in France supported McCain.
The main reason Europeans give for supporting Obama is his perceived ability to represent change from the Bush administration. Other strengths are his personality and youth. None of this is particularly surprising, and confirms most anecdotal evidence.
What is particularly striking about the poll is not what Europeans think about America but how they think about themselves.
Who Will Lead the 'Next Europe', and To Where?
Last month I received a phone call from my eleven-year-old cousin, who wanted my thoughts for a class paper on "what it means to be American." The last two years have borne witness to an often rancorous debate over that very subject, a debate that played out on a global stage. Discussions of "American exceptionalism" prompted proud proclamations from this side of the Atlantic and engendered skepticism abroad. After all, what does make America so special?
On Election night, America offered one answer to that question, placing its hopes and its future in the hands of Barack Obama, our first African-American president. Tears of joy and shouts of happiness at a uniquely American achievement quickly spread beyond our borders, spawning images of shared euphoria across Europe from Paris to Athens. Common to both celebrations, though - those here and abroad - was a familiar refrain: "Only in America."
As I watched Parisians share in the Obamania, I couldn't help but ask the obvious question: could it happen there? Could they too elect a minority to the highest office in the land? Could an Algerian descendant occupy the Palais de l'Élysée? Could a second-generation Turk become German chancellor? Is Fortress Europe ready for a changing world?
In Search of Europe's Obama
Obama's victory rocks Europe's moral certainty over the United States. Most Europeans see the U.S. returning to the western values that the Bush administration had subverted. But with the historical victory of an African-American with a Kenyan father becoming the U.S. president, Europe is suddenly haunted by a question that leads it into self-doubt: would Europe be able to vote for its own Obama? Looking at the current political landscape the answer has to be No. But the Obama presidency could indeed be a crucial external impulse for change in this respect - but not because Europe wants to live up to its own ideal of a society with equal opportunities for every citizen. In fact the reason can be found in Europe's ever pressing problems linked to its inability to integrate immigrants. Indeed, change is already under way in most European countries, though in slow motion.
Body Scanners Raise Privacy Questions
If you are currently planning a vacation to Europe, I advise you to make a few more sweaty trips to your nearest gym or take out that dusty ab-trainer you bought a few summers ago. Otherwise, you might become the center of an unpleasant trans-Atlantic striptease.
The European Commission has been trying to introduce body scanners that can be used in alternative to body searches at airports across the EU by 2010. Body scanners are machines that use radio waves to produce nude-like images of individuals. In a proposal last month, the Commission added scanning to a list of civil aviation security measures. The machines already have been introduced on a trial basis in ten of the busiest airports in the U.S., where there has been little or no public debate on the issue.
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