Talk about a Peace Dividend. Get Ready for PRC Investments in Taiwan

This is a really smart op-ed by Dan Rosen on the new hope in the economic relations between China and Taiwan.

The operative graph for me is this:

Until now, Taiwan has blocked inward investment from China -- despite WTO obligations -- ostensibly out of national security concerns. While unofficial estimates of Taiwanese investment in mainland China range from $200 billion to $400 billion, reciprocal Chinese investment in Taiwan stands near zero. During the most recent round of direct China-Taiwan talks in Nanjing, agreement was reached to resolve this asymmetry. As a result, many sectors of Taiwan's economy stand to benefit from new inflows from across the Strait, including real estate, information and communications technology, areas of financial and business facilitation services, biotechnology and other sectors.

Posted by John Pomfret on May 6, 2009 4:17 PM

Did the Communists Really Win in China?

This is a really interesting review of a new book that reconsiders Chiang Kai-shek.

Continue »

Posted by John Pomfret on May 1, 2009 9:41 AM

Will the Communists Call President Ma "Mister"?

The highest ranking delegation of Chinese officials to visit Taiwan arrived in Taipei on Monday. Chen Yunlin, Beijing's top negotiator on Taiwan affairs, is leading a 60-person delegation, in the first Taiwan-China negotiations ever on Taiwanese soil. No one more senior from China has come to Taiwan since the end of the civil war in 1949 (unless you count the Nationalist Party which fled the Communist takeover.)

These negotiations are hugely important and extremely symbolic. For China and Taiwan, they are tantamount to the US elections. While they are not going to usher in new governments, they could set in motion a new era of relations between China and Taiwan -- unless knuckleheads on Taiwan or China mess it up.

Continue »

Posted by John Pomfret on November 2, 2008 5:36 PM

Threading the Taiwan Military Needle

Should the United States be selling weapons to Taiwan now that Taiwan and China are getting closer? This is a nettlesome question that the Bush administration doesn’t want to answer, at least until the president returns from the Olympic Games in China in August.

The Post’s Glenn Kessler reported recently that Bush administration officials were delaying a long-promised $11 billion deal which include 30 Apache helicopters, 60 Black Hawk helicopters, eight diesel-electric submarines and four Patriot air defense missile batteries. The administration has also refused, Kessler reported, to accept a "letter of request" from Taiwan for 66 F-16 C/D fighters – which would cost an additional $5 billion.

Continue »

Posted by John Pomfret on July 7, 2008 11:48 AM